Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[soxxx]

Since when has this thread become Covid-19 related? Some psychos in Politics & Society will flood over and turn it into a warzone.

P.S: Absolutely no.

Perfect example: Gulping hydroxychloroquine or colloidal silver in desperation because a moron says so. Smart move is to wait for the trial data to come out and make your decision then.

You realize that story was fake? or do you watch too much mainstream media?

[nutildah]

Are you new to economic downturns? First time?

Oh right, how could I forget the thousands of bodies stacked high in 2009, dead from unemployment.  

"a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate will be associated with 37,000 deaths [including 20,000 heart attacks], 920 suicides, 650 homicides, 4,000 state mental hospital admissions and 3,300 state prison admissions."

The unemployment rate currently sits at 15% and growing.


There was an increase in suicides in 2009 due to the recession.

Re: the NY Post article

The actual figure in academic research is a 37,000 increase for each percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate. It comes from a book called “Corporate Flight: The Causes and Consequences of Economic Dislocation” by Barry Bluestone, Bennett Harrison and Lawrence Baker.

“Corporate Flight” was published in 1982 and mainly had to do with companies moving operations overseas. I couldn’t reach Bluestone, Harrison or Baker, but last week I was able to contact Wade Thomas, who teaches economics and business at SUNY Oneonta and who quoted those figures in his own co-written 2005 book called “Economic Issues Today: Alternative Approaches.”
...
“I would hesitate to extrapolate from the old estimates of corporate flight as a means of quantifying present circumstances,” Thomas wrote to me in an email, adding that “there are too many variables involved now to assert definitive cause and effect between unemployment and the litany of health consequences cited in the 1981 study.”

But, Thomas said, “it informs our thinking about some of the potential problems that may accompany this wave of joblessness.”

Two things are definitely different today. One, Washington acted quickly to help the unemployed. It didn’t when companies were moving overseas.

With the suicide rate: sure, I can see there being more suicides than normal due to a sustained period of high unemployment rates. I'm not totally unreasonable.

However, all you are really saying is that you know for sure the outcome would have been better, and there would have been less deaths overall if... if what? What would you have done differently?

With the exception of South Korea, Taiwan and a handful of other places, I don't think world governments are doing a good job of handling the problem. But I do think they are trying to help people and not kill them.  This isn't some grand conspiracy to beat people into submission for the New World Order. It's just people responding to a unique problem for the first time, trying to figure out what works, what doesn't.

Nobody really knows the solution. Some people just pretend to know harder than others.

[lightfoot]

Perfect example: Gulping hydroxychloroquine or colloidal silver in desperation because a moron says so. Smart move is to wait for the trial data to come out and make your decision then.

You realize that story was fake? or do you watch too much mainstream media?

How so?

[vapourminer]

Because when you get injected with something it's best if it is untested and innovative.

worked pretty well in the 60s. more or less.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $9,685

Less than three days to go!!!

[Cryptotourist]

WO is like this. We have all sorts of whack-a-doodle discussions here, the key is we know when to quit and when to stop beating a dead horse (for awhile).

Funny you would say that, just had horse for dinner:



Only the badger scares our young ones:



Notice how volatile is the little fucker.

[Torque]

Oh right, how could I forget the thousands of bodies stacked high in 2009, dead from unemployment.  

The opioid epidemic (that has killed tens of thousands PER YEAR) didn't just steadily rise in the U.S. after 2009 because everyone quickly found a job again and were happy, dude.  

And after this time, with 22M+ layoffs in the U.S., the follow-on death toll is only going to get astronomically worse....again.

[Elwar]

What would you have done differently?

I (if I controlled the government) would have done the same thing the government does during a bad flu season.

If I also controlled the government I would likely use the crisis as an opportunity to turn the health care system into a completely decentralized blockchain aided free market system.

If it was truly a bad pandemic people would be able to buy respirators (or 3D print their own), have a negative pressure room in their home/garage/basement, and AirBnB the hospital space. Uber Doctors and Nurses that come and check on patients and give monitoring advice to AirBnBs.

While I have also been control of the government I then turn every law enforcement agency into a blockchain based P2P service where if you need a threat managed you get on your app which uses AI to automatically contact the closest threat managers to deal with your particular situation until a private investigator can come in and gather evidence which is then utilized for an Augr type of trial to determine if the victim requires compensation from the accused.

After being given such supreme power over the government I would work until my position is no longer necessary and the market has fulfilled all roles from my central place of authority down to the smallest individual.

[Wekkel]

If not posted already: April Pantera letter.

https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/macro-impact-on-bitcoin-pantera-blockchain-letter-april-2020-1fdc792d4f33

[Torque]

I say you should only use credit to earn money, not to spend it.

Borrowing to spend on unnecessary luxuries like cars and phones is silly unless they are essential tools for earning money. Even then there are usually cheaper options that don't require borrowing.

Of course most people have been brainwashed by lifelong propaganda:

student loan, diploma, employee job, credit card, car payments, mortgage, overtime (or 2nd job), overpriced holiday package, designer clothing, etc.

They think borrowing and buying is the normal thing to do.

It's become so normal and prevalent in the U.S., that no one even questions it anymore. They get indoctrinated by observing what their parents and grandparents are doing with debt *cough* credit. Never mind the fact that assloads of debt that can't be paid back is what is making their parents and grandparents completely miserable.

[Elwar]

Everyone who wants to take Bill Gates' vaccine....really should.

Like...please do.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Very interesting data ...



Twitter: https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1258756633578135552

Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin%20halving

It is certainly good news, the fact that this type of interest is produced in some way will bring more and more people to the market, and obviously, the more demand there is, the supply decreases causing the price to increase in Bitcoin, it is a simple way to demonstrate the law of Supply and Demand.

[Biodom]

[I mostly agree with the scenarios depicted in the removed text]

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold [recently] open[ed] long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

a possible scenario as well, but disagree on ALL long positions liquidation.
Corrected with what should be (added text), in my opinion.
I would rather buy a big dip then sell now, then potentially chase.
I don't want to post scary charts, but all kind of variables are currently possible.
One thing, though, there will be no panic and re-locking/wrecked economy UNLESS there is a large fatality increase.
However, I saw that some economists say that FED went too big too early and is now basically spent/shown their hand.

[nutildah]

What would you have done differently?

I (if I controlled the government) would have done the same thing the government does during a bad flu season.

If I also controlled the government I would likely use the crisis as an opportunity to turn the health care system into a completely decentralized blockchain aided free market system.

If it was truly a bad pandemic people would be able to buy respirators (or 3D print their own), have a negative pressure room in their home/garage/basement, and AirBnB the hospital space. Uber Doctors and Nurses that come and check on patients and give monitoring advice to AirBnBs.

While I have also been control of the government I then turn every law enforcement agency into a blockchain based P2P service where if you need a threat managed you get on your app which uses AI to automatically contact the closest threat managers to deal with your particular situation until a private investigator can come in and gather evidence which is then utilized for an Augr type of trial to determine if the victim requires compensation from the accused.

After being given such supreme power over the government I would work until my position is no longer necessary and the market has fulfilled all roles from my central place of authority down to the smallest individual.

During the Spanish Flu, many local governments mandated people stay in doors or wear masks when going outside -- that's what the government did during a really bad flu season. Regardless, covid-19 is more lethal than the flu and doesn't have a vaccine. Nobody has natural antibodies built up against this virus.

Your approach would only work for the wealthiest 10% of the population. Putting everybody else on their own would inevitably cause a problem for those 10%. Regardless, your opinions are an interesting way of looking at things, so thanks for answering my question.

[Phil_S]

Oh right, how could I forget the thousands of bodies stacked high in 2009, dead from unemployment.  

Well...

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/15/21214734/deaths-of-despair-coronavirus-covid-19-angus-deaton-anne-case-americans-deaths

In 2015, life expectancy in the wealthiest country in the world fell for the first time in decades. Then came the nearly unfathomable: Life expectancy in the US fell again in 2016 — and for a third time in a row in 2017.

It is hard to communicate just how disquieting that trend is. Outside of wars or pandemics, life expectancy across the world has been consistently rising for almost a century, and has become a hallmark of highly developed nations. The last time a three-year downturn in life expectancy happened in the US was more than a century ago when the 1918 flu pandemic wiped out anywhere between 17 million and 100 million people worldwide.

What was happening? As Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton first pointed out in a 2015 paper, working-age white men and women without four-year college degrees were dying of suicide, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related liver disease — what Case and Deaton termed “deaths of despair” — at unprecedented rates. In 2017 alone, there were 158,000 deaths of despair in the US: the equivalent of “three fully loaded Boeing 737 MAX jets falling out of the sky every day for a year.”

[mindrust]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

[OutOfMemory]

once there was a user called mindrust, or something like that.
he was a die hard #hodlbull, he had faith into bitcoin and a plan for the future of his btc investment...
Anybody here knows what's up with him nowadays?

 

[bitserve]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

Your acquisition cost is near zero because you have a near zero amount of Bitcoin. How can that be any good news?

I really still don't understand why you went all out and then started to DCA instead of just having left the intended (even if just 1BTC) amount in... anyways, if you are happier this way then it's all good. Stress is a huge killer.

[Cryptotourist]

When I zoom out on the monthly candles, and compare them to the previous halving, I feel that we must taste $12k-$14k, before correcting 35% or so.
September last call for 4 digits, and ATH in December (alts in death spiral, before 2021 recovery).

Completely SOMA of course.
This on the other hand,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZJiGu6Gz8E

could be the $100k masterpiece I've been looking for.

Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

We are, not sure about you bud.
Your contribution in defining the "mindrust maneuver" is priceless though.

[Biodom]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

I am suspecting that you bought some cheap alt...confess