Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

Slow increase is fine, as long as decreases are also slow.
"Wham-bam-thank you ma'm" like in Dec 2017 would make any selling decisions hard.
Imagine if tomorrow btc is 100K and you want to sell a few.
It might cost you to deposit into exchanges with tx price going into hundreds.
Maybe it is better to position a few on exchanges beforehand, but it is bad for mitigate potential hacks and/or losses.
Decisions, decisions.

I leave up to 20% on exchange(s) for that purpose.
I could still sell the remaining corn via broker, transaction cost would be high too, but spot prices, so i wouldn't lose time for transferring corn to an exchange.
The price is always a wee bit lower than overall traded prices from exchanges. A bit higher if i'd buy.

EDIT: The broker is adjusting prices on a per-minute basis, so there is some advantage in reacting to big and fast price changes.

Good night y'all, hope to wake up to $9500+  

[Hueristic]

Remember when the FCC tried to cover up fraud & fake comments in its #netneutrality
 proceeding? Journalists wanted to get to the bottom of this mess. The FCC told them go away. But a court just told the FCC to stop hiding from the press. So it’s time for the agency to come clean.

https://twitter.com/JRosenworcel/status/1256249670982041603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1256249670982041603&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamer.com%2Ffcc-loses-legal-battle-to-hide-ip-addresses-of-net-neutrality-comments%2F

[JSRAW]

xhomerx10 new hat idea for Hodlers..
Artist: Yegor Petrov https://twitter.com/yegorpetr0v/status/1258047027893735431

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report


Bears launch a fierce counter-attack to drive Bulls back from new monthly highs in the final hour of trading today. Both sides take a brief respite as the battle resets again in the trenches around $9.2k       dyor


another step taken
4h



D

stronghands

[marcus_of_augustus]

Would be quite strange if Bitcoin were to go shooting up, while the rest of the world burns,

Yeah... I dunno about that. All that newly-printed money has to go somewhere.

I mean, sure. All those pinstriped-bandit insiders that get the sweetheart deal financializing everyone else's misery don't currently have a hard-on for Bitcoin. But when they see P/E ratios trending towards infinity? They'll be looking around for somewhere else to park their stolen riches. Bitcoin is as good as it gets from an honest analysis.

... this.

I think PlanB and the phase change S2FX model is interesting but swerves heavily into behaviourial economics which becomes quite subjective/speculative.

Also I think the orders of magnitude are off. Currently bitcoin 'capitalisation' is around the USD100-200 billion range, and due to bitcoin's unique programmable properties it makes it difficult to put that valuation into a neat M0, M1, M2 type money supply classification of economics anyway. A 'phase change' to the next level at maybe 10-20x current capitalisations is not going leave bitcoin anywhere near 'geopolitical force' level, even at a peak. However, the next level could easily attract a lot of the "stolen riches" that have been printed up to paper over the graft, malfeasance and theft from our hyper-financialised fiat-debt crony-socialist system. The stolen riches are of the order USD10-20 trillion by my crude estimates. Bitcoin going to USD2-3 trillion capitalisation in the next phase change would definitely vacuum up a chunk of some of the stolen riches but I don't see any geopolitical asset allocations (central banks, treasuries, national wealth funds, etc) at this phase.

Contrary to many speculations about coming hyperinflations in fiat-denominated economies I don't think we will see widespread hyperinflation. Why haven't we seen any CPI inflation the previous 3 decades in Japan and the last 15 years in the West? The system is finely tuned now to cause only inflation in financial assets not consumer goods. Subsequently all the monetary 'fixes' are now being manifest as economic problems; stagnation, low wages, middle class hollowed out, historic wealth inequalities, etc. All the money that gets printed only goes to the top 0.1% that had all the money in the first place, it's like a shitcoin staking bonus system or something. So my point here is the M0 for the world of around $100 trillion base money is not representative of the total monetised assets in the world since many financial assets, property, commodities and derivatives have become monetised as the asset-holding classes try to escape fiat debasement over the last 50 years. The monetary premium now built into those dollar-denominated assets needs to be added to the $100 trillion of global M0 to get a true 'geopolitical' M* measure (order of magnitude) for the final phase change that PlanB talks about. I'd guess that's in the USD200-500 trillion magnitude. I don't see bitcoin capturing a significant chunk of that monetary float capital until after the 2024 halvening or the one after that at the earliest. Imperial systems take time to collapse.

After the upcoming stolen riches phase change taking us to $1-2 trillion market cap range there is also the consideration that a bloc of 'rebel' nations may defect the fiat-debt system at an earlier phase change to the majority, creating an interim 'geopolitical subwave' phase. Before the majority of nations move to a bitcoin standard, say China, Russia, Iran, N.Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other rekt systems by default move to bitcoin majorly in 2024-25, creating a market cap. of USD10-20 trillion range is then a possibility. After that, then the major economies begin to defect to bitcoin in a major move beginning 2028-30 taking bitcoin into the USD50-100 trillion range, but the value of the dollar will be becoming immeasurably meaningless by that stage.

[vapourminer]

Imagine if tomorrow btc is 100K and you want to sell a few.
It might cost you to deposit into exchanges with tx price going into hundreds.
Maybe it is better to position a few on exchanges beforehand, but it is bad for mitigation of the potential hacks and/or losses.
Decisions, decisions.

i keep a small amount parked on exchanges for just that reason.. to take advantage of any sudden increase that also results in packed blocks with high fees. what good is a great price for corn when you cant get it to an exchange.

its sort of like keeping a small amount on a phone or other hot wallet. as long as you can afford to kiss it goodbye due to hack or whatever.

not you keys not your coin is Rule One, but who wants to get stuck trying to move coins when everyone else has the same idea. waiting days for a transaction is not my idea of smooth sailing during a nice price increase that may only last for days itself.

like everything else, its a trade off. pick your comfort level and sit back and relax.

[Arriemoller]

yes, did not know how to conjure it from my keyboard.

It is a perfectly normal letter located right next to the L your keyboard must be missing some keys.

No, on any civilized keyboard Ö is next to L.

[jbreher]

Remember when the FCC tried to cover up fraud & fake comments in its #netneutrality
 proceeding? Journalists wanted to get to the bottom of this mess. The FCC told them go away. But a court just told the FCC to stop hiding from the press. So it’s time for the agency to come clean.

https://twitter.com/JRosenworcel/status/1256249670982041603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1256249670982041603&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamer.com%2Ffcc-loses-legal-battle-to-hide-ip-addresses-of-net-neutrality-comments%2F

Looking at the plaintiffs' names, one can't help but wonder if this is another inside cointelpro job.

[xhomerx10]

xhomerx10 new hat idea for Hodlers..
Artist: Yegor Petrov https://twitter.com/yegorpetr0v/status/1258047027893735431

 Oooo that's nice!

[Raja_MBZ]

What do y'all think, did I get scammed? I'll give the guy another 12 hours before I declare him as a scammer.
~snip~
He has been offline at Bitcointalk ever since I sent him the BTC. He seemed to have a lot of successful trades from some senior members around, that's why I went first in the trade.

So... what do y'all learn from this?

[xhomerx10]

What do y'all think, did I get scammed? I'll give the guy another 12 hours before I declare him as a scammer.
~snip~
He has been offline at Bitcointalk ever since I sent him the BTC. He seemed to have a lot of successful trades from some senior members around, that's why I went first in the trade.

So... what do y'all learn from this?

 You should post in Scam accusations to stop him from scamming others.   The account still shows positive trust and your BTC have moved since you sent them to him.

[JSRAW]

Always use escrow, no matter what..... honesty is expensive gift after all so don't expect it from cheap people.

Hope he comes online again...

[Hueristic]

Looking at the plaintiffs' names, one can't help but wonder if this is another inside cointelpro job.

I can't quite make that connection.

[Raja_MBZ]

You should post in Scam accusations to stop him from scamming others.   The account still shows positive trust and your BTC have moved since you sent them to him.

Yes, this will probably be my first thread in the Scam Accusations, let's see how it goes. I'll do it shortly, still expecting him to come online though (TBH, I've been having this problem too much lately, I trust people so fast).

Right now, I'm trying to access those people who have left him positive feedback. I'm asking them to withdraw it from his profile.

[jojo69]

ooooooh

9K iz support nao

[jojo69]

Would be quite strange if Bitcoin were to go shooting up, while the rest of the world burns,

Yeah... I dunno about that. All that newly-printed money has to go somewhere.

I mean, sure. All those pinstriped-bandit insiders that get the sweetheart deal financializing everyone else's misery don't currently have a hard-on for Bitcoin. But when they see P/E ratios trending towards infinity? They'll be looking around for somewhere else to park their stolen riches. Bitcoin is as good as it gets from an honest analysis.

... this.

I think PlanB and the phase change S2FX model is interesting but swerves heavily into behaviourial economics which becomes quite subjective/speculative.

Also I think the orders of magnitude are off. Currently bitcoin 'capitalisation' is around the USD100-200 billion range, and due to bitcoin's unique programmable properties it makes it difficult to put that valuation into a neat M0, M1, M2 type money supply classification of economics anyway. A 'phase change' to the next level at maybe 10-20x current capitalisations is not going leave bitcoin anywhere near 'geopolitical force' level, even at a peak. However, the next level could easily attract a lot of the "stolen riches" that have been printed up to paper over the graft, malfeasance and theft from our hyper-financialised fiat-debt crony-socialist system. The stolen riches are of the order USD10-20 trillion by my crude estimates. Bitcoin going to USD2-3 trillion capitalisation in the next phase change would definitely vacuum up a chunk of some of the stolen riches but I don't see any geopolitical asset allocations (central banks, treasuries, national wealth funds, etc) at this phase.

Contrary to many speculations about coming hyperinflations in fiat-denominated economies I don't think we will see widespread hyperinflation. Why haven't we seen any CPI inflation the previous 3 decades in Japan and the last 15 years in the West? The system is finely tuned now to cause only inflation in financial assets not consumer goods. Subsequently all the monetary 'fixes' are now being manifest as economic problems; stagnation, low wages, middle class hollowed out, historic wealth inequalities, etc. All the money that gets printed only goes to the top 0.1% that had all the money in the first place, it's like a shitcoin staking bonus system or something. So my point here is the M0 for the world of around $100 trillion base money is not representative of the total monetised assets in the world since many financial assets, property, commodities and derivatives have become monetised as the asset-holding classes try to escape fiat debasement over the last 50 years. The monetary premium now built into those dollar-denominated assets needs to be added to the $100 trillion of global M0 to get a true 'geopolitical' M* measure (order of magnitude) for the final phase change that PlanB talks about. I'd guess that's in the USD200-500 trillion magnitude. I don't see bitcoin capturing a significant chunk of that monetary float capital until after the 2024 halvening or the one after that at the earliest. Imperial systems take time to collapse.

After the upcoming stolen riches phase change taking us to $1-2 trillion market cap range there is also the consideration that a bloc of 'rebel' nations may defect the fiat-debt system at an earlier phase change to the majority, creating an interim 'geopolitical subwave' phase. Before the majority of nations move to a bitcoin standard, say China, Russia, Iran, N.Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other rekt systems by default move to bitcoin majorly in 2024-25, creating a market cap. of USD10-20 trillion range is then a possibility. After that, then the major economies begin to defect to bitcoin in a major move beginning 2028-30 taking bitcoin into the USD50-100 trillion range, but the value of the dollar will be becoming immeasurably meaningless by that stage.

post of the month contender right here

[jojo69]

So... what do y'all learn from this?

that you have not discovered darkreader yet?

stop assaulting my retinas with your photons man

[Toxic2040]

ooooooh

9K iz support nao

[Raja_MBZ]

that you have not discovered darkreader yet?

stop assaulting my retinas with your photons man

Wow, this is cool. The emojis look a bit irritating though; they're not finely transparent.

[bitebits]

yes, did not know how to conjure it from my keyboard.

It is a perfectly normal letter located right next to the L your keyboard must be missing some keys.

No, on any civilized keyboard Ö is next to L.

LÖL