Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Buenos tardes Bitcoinland.

who you callin' a tard?

[VB1001]

Of course, the four-year fractal comparison is helpful to figure out where we are at in the cycle and if we are ahead or behind previous four-year periods.

For some reason, I like to also see the cross asset comparisons in order to attempt to appreciate what might be going on between asset classes in terms - and those kinds of charts might shed light on debunking some un/correlation claims - I mean comparing bitcoin to the stock market and gold.

I also understand that sometimes the cross asset comparisons could be presented in various ways that might cause them to seem a bit jankie in terms of how long is the time horizon for the comparison - so what is the starting point for a possibly meaningful comparison, and of course, the longer the time horizon, the more likely that bitcoin is going to outperform almost any other cross comparison asset - but in the short term there may be some correlation and even under performance in bitcoin - which really does not even seem to be the situation, currently... of course, if the starting point were to be bitcoin's December 2017 top, then that would reflect more negatively on bitcoin, but would likely not be a very representative starting point.....  But maybe the beginning of 2017 would be a more or less fair starting point, which would have been around mid-point of the early UP cycle (and around the price point where BTC broke back above its 2013 highpoint).

More or less as you say, but in part I wanted to compare the graph with:

Bitcoin Price Yearly Average Nears All-Time High Above 9K Pre-Halving

Bitcoin’s yearly moving average price is, therefore, at around $9,000 for only the second time in its history.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-yearly-average-nears-all-time-high-above-9k-pre-halving

Bitcoin’s yearly moving average price is about to break an all time high.

https://twitter.com/yassineARK/status/1256290487226548225

Here you go:

To see if the average adjusts to 9K.

[Wekkel]

On our way to the top, a good read: https://unchained-capital.com/blog/bitcoin-is-common-sense/

[JimboToronto]

somebody no like vegeta 

Too much MSG.

[noormcs5]

Now next 10000$ because I wait some long for this.

To the moon  

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting..

Coinbase: Bitcoin Is Superior to Gold

A report published by leading U.S.-based crypto exchange, Coinbase, has argued that Bitcoin (BTC) offers a distinct advantage over gold. They state that Bitcoin is afforded these advantages by its lack of dependence on physical supply chains.

“Bitcoin’s rate of new supply is ~3.6% per year and will soon drop to ~1.7% on May 12th, setting it on par with gold’s historic scarcity. As gold miners and refineries have gone offline, Bitcoin’s global mining ecosystem seems resilient according to hash rate measurements in recent days.”

Source: http://www.xbt.money/coinbase-bitcoin-is-superior-to-gold/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Thanks for that article, Lucky...   I like that comparing of assets by picking a timeline and starting from a baseline of 0%

I do have a bit of a problem with starting from the beginning of this year, rather than looking at the past few years, such as starting from early 2017 - as I mentioned in my earlier post.

Surely, I understand that there can be some relevance to starting asset comparisons from the beginning of this year, and in terms of short term asset class reactions to this pandemic and the various ways that the pandemic has been impacting the economy... But jeez... 2020 only has 4 completed months in it and we barely started on the 5th month and we are hardly even into this pandemic or its various impacts, even though politicians seem to continuously spouting out regarding how we have gotten past the initial curve, etc. etc. etc.

Yeah, maybe we have gotten past some ideas of social distancing and figuring out ways to treat the virus, but even from my lame ass layman's perspective, there are way too many unknown unknowns, and I am not going to believe any politicians who either already have shown to have a history of lying, and even when my lying eyes are seeing facts that seem to contradict with the lying words coming out of the mouths of various politicians who are continuing to paint exaggerated pictures regarding getting back to normal - even with the continued existence of a lot of unknown unknowns.

For example, easy shit... the manufacturing of n95 masks or something like that for the general population rather than pieces of cloth in front of our face.. you would think that modern industrial societies would be able to figure out ways to distribute those kinds of seemingly basic professionally made PPE to the population.. and they cannot even figure out the basic shit, and we are supposed to believe them that we are getting past the curve?

Don't get me wrong... I would really like the most rosey of limited negative economic impact scenarios to play out.. and we could just get back to a kind of "normal," and yet a central question for those of us who are either HODLing bitcoin or continuing to accumulate bitcoin (would be nice if mindrust could join us in as meaningful way in this endeavor) continues to be whether honey badger gives any shits... about these seemingly extreme exogenous events.  I am NOT trying to proclaim that bitcoin does not live in the real world, because it does, but at the same time, bitcoin remains in real low levels of current adoption, so it seems so likely to retain some resilience to being able to ongoingly grow, and maybe even stick with something close to the stock to model curve while traditional assets continue to have existential crises that involve really having to deal with the real world pumpening and abuse that they have experienced over the past 30 years or more... based on ever increasing sloppy monetary policy that more and more emphasizes that the solution to any problem is money printer go brrrrrrr..

[El duderino_]

Opposite direction corn

[Biodom]

Here is a real life situation for you...
Was standing in front of a window to deposit something (came out for the first time in a few days, apart from walking around)
The 'tard to the left (not a protestor) had his mask hanging at his belt while loudly proclaiming something...
I had some cheap mask on (as the pic said, potentially just 30% protection).
Did not pay much attention...but today have scratchy throat..took some vits, we shall see.

The question is: if someone mouth something close to you while having no PPE, what to do? Do I politely tell him to STFU, or do I tell him/her to move away or be silent (if retreat is not possible).
Or do i simply think positive thoughts?
Choices, choices.

Another choice are homeless, which are dime and dozen at the intersections.
As we know, at least half of them are infected.
Do I help a fellow man in a calamity or do I drive away, windows closed, AC turned on inside only?
What a bummer.

maybe will buy a chunk of btc...just in case.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqaotiGWjQ The War on Sensemaking, Daniel Schmachtenberger

What can we trust? Why is the 'information ecology' so damaged, and what would it take to make it healthy?

Rabbit hole stuff. To be clear, finding it intriguing but pretty hard going.
What's wrong with blogs people? or even books? You're so clever, write stuff down.

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, the four-year fractal comparison is helpful to figure out where we are at in the cycle and if we are ahead or behind previous four-year periods.

For some reason, I like to also see the cross asset comparisons in order to attempt to appreciate what might be going on between asset classes in terms - and those kinds of charts might shed light on debunking some un/correlation claims - I mean comparing bitcoin to the stock market and gold.

I also understand that sometimes the cross asset comparisons could be presented in various ways that might cause them to seem a bit jankie in terms of how long is the time horizon for the comparison - so what is the starting point for a possibly meaningful comparison, and of course, the longer the time horizon, the more likely that bitcoin is going to outperform almost any other cross comparison asset - but in the short term there may be some correlation and even under performance in bitcoin - which really does not even seem to be the situation, currently... of course, if the starting point were to be bitcoin's December 2017 top, then that would reflect more negatively on bitcoin, but would likely not be a very representative starting point.....  But maybe the beginning of 2017 would be a more or less fair starting point, which would have been around mid-point of the early UP cycle (and around the price point where BTC broke back above its 2013 highpoint).

More or less as you say, but in part I wanted to compare the graph with:

Bitcoin Price Yearly Average Nears All-Time High Above 9K Pre-Halving

Bitcoin’s yearly moving average price is, therefore, at around $9,000 for only the second time in its history.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-yearly-average-nears-all-time-high-above-9k-pre-halving

Bitcoin’s yearly moving average price is about to break an all time high.

https://twitter.com/yassineARK/status/1256290487226548225

Here you go:

To see if the average adjusts to 9K.

Yeah... fair enough, VB1001... Using yearly averages for comparison of each of the asset classes would be a decent kind of comparison attempt that attempts to take out some of the shorter-term price movement noise...

Based on looking at that chart that you highlighted regarding how bitcoin's yearly average had gone up from below $1k in early 2017 to something that is approaching $9k today, I am thinking that I might need to adjust my proposed starting point to attempt to make matters a bit more fair in terms of the ability of other assets to attempt to compete with bitcoin, that is surely likely to continue to be on an s-curve adoption phase.

Anyhow, personally, I am thinking that there could be some unfairness that favors bitcoin if we go back too far, because bitcoin is very likely in an s-curve adoption curve, while other asset classes are mature.. So maybe if we go half way up the 2017 curve, then that would be more fair for the comparison of bitcoin to other assets.. .maybe starting with bitcoin in around the $5k arena... and then go from there and see how it plays out.. Sure bitcoin is still likely to win, but at the same time, we don't really know bitcoin's future with any kind of certainty, either.. even though a lot of us who continue to be btc HODLers and accumulators are likely continuing to recognize the ongoing asymmetric bet nature of bitcoin;.. that is likely (surely not guaranteed) to continue to blow the other asset classes out of the water - even if we try to create comparison charts that give traditional asset classes a considerable degree of benefit of the doubt.

For sure, also, anyone who is currently considering to start investing in bitcoin, today, has to consider what are bitcoin's current dynamics (for example, is bitcoin in a bubble?) and go from current starting points, rather than presuming that merely because bitcoin has gone through great historical cycles that future cycles are going to play out very similarly as the past cycles.

[Indymoney]

Opposite direction corn

Yeah again $8850

[Biodom]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqaotiGWjQ The War on Sensemaking, Daniel Schmachtenberger

What can we trust? Why is the 'information ecology' so damaged, and what would it take to make it healthy?

Rabbit hole stuff. To be clear, finding it pretty hard going.
What's wrong with blogs people? or even books? You're so clever, write stuff down.

That requires the ability and intent to read, which is, sadly, becoming more rare these days.
Now, it's also the f-g Zoom.

[jojo69]

The question is: if someone mouth something close to you while having no PPE, what to do?

rifle butt to the face

then put the boots to 'em




this is why I don't go out...on advise of council

[lightfoot]

Here is a real life situation for you...
Was standing in front of a window to deposit something (came out for the first time in a few days, apart from walking around)
The 'tard to the left (not a protestor) had his mask hanging at his belt while loudly proclaiming something...
I had some cheap mask on (as the pic said, potentially just 30% protection).
Did not pay much attention...but today have scratchy throat..took some vits, we shall see.

The question is: if someone mouth something close to you while having no PPE, what to do? Do I politely tell him to STFU, or do I tell him/her to move away or be silent (if retreat is not possible).
Or do i simply think positive thoughts?
Choices, choices.

Another choice are homeless, which are dime and dozen at the intersections.
As we know, at least half of them are infected.
Do I help a fellow man in a calamity or do I drive away, windows closed, AC turned on inside only?
What a bummer.

maybe will buy a chunk of btc...just in case.

*sigh*

P100 respirator. Yes they look a bit silly (not so much anymore) but they do provide real 100% protection on particles down to .3 microns which includes this virus. And asbestos. I wear one when shopping as does the wife because if I come across a mouth breather like Pence I can be certain I will not die due to his stupidity.

Problem now is I have a limited supply of replacement cartridges. Yes the ones in the units are fine (and I only wear them around people) but when I was planning I was thinking NBC which would have a much lower half life problem then a stupid virus. On the positive side I have a huge stupid HEPA air filter here in the house I can cut up to make new filters for the cartridges.

I can see why the "Christian" dominionists would complain about wearing masks and distancing: Their idea of a proper apocalypse is for people to all turn on each other, ripping and rending so they can come out on "top" and be "in charge". People cooperating and helping each other screws that whole model up.

[Biodom]

The question is: if someone mouth something close to you while having no PPE, what to do?

rifle butt to the face

then put the boots to 'em




this is why I don't go out...on advise of council

OK..I need to start wearing them boots 

[lightfoot]

rifle butt to the face

then put the boots to 'em

Interesting thought: I could rig the flamethrower to shoot a 5 foot burst. That could work really well if I had to travel to say Florida: I was both following the law, enforcing the law, and standing my ground.

Hm......

[Biodom]

<incorrect quote deleted>

Interesting thought: I could rig the flamethrower to shoot a 5 foot burst. That could work really well if I had to travel to say Florida: I was both following the law, enforcing the law, and standing my ground.

Hm......

hey, No fair!
Those are NOT my words in the quote..they are jojo's  .

[jojo69]

For this purpose, I recommend these Swedish pattern logging boots, from White's out of Spokane, without hesitation.

[Last of the V8s]

bit ghey

[jojo69]

bit ghey

no, I have the ghey ones also though



go well with the camo miniskirt, for industrial strength treehugging mind you...