Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Even more importantly, we do not hide out face in western cultures. Leave that to the muslims. Masks are an overall bad idea.

And hoodies. Ban hoodies.

Never liked em. They seem very slumlordy. Sure.

[JSRAW]

Speaking of lovey dovey...........

Bitcoin stock-to-flow price targets for Q3/Q4 2021 (or maybe Q1/Q2 2022?). Three available models. All by Plan B.

A) S2FX (cross asset): ~288K
B) S2F updated: ~100K
C) S2F original: ~55K

These prices are averages. Not tops. Last cycle the average was 7K. And we reached 20K.

https://twitter.com/bitharington/status/1275394161584361478

[JimboToronto]

Even more importantly, we do not hide out face in western cultures. Leave that to the muslims. Masks are an overall bad idea.

And hoodies. Ban hoodies.

Never liked em. They seem very slumlordy. Sure.

Except of course for practical reasons like lung or cold weather protection.

[Wekkel]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch 

[Torque]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch 

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

As a HODLer since 2013, I'm confident and cocky, been "rekt" many times, but yet somehow I'm still #winning 

[Wekkel]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch 

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

The problem is that it makes rather boring predictions. I'd rather read a strong conviction, regardless whether it may come true or not.   

[Hueristic]

This is the definition of a fish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTA0PYWuFEQ

[JayJuanGee]

Speaking of lovey dovey...........

Bitcoin stock-to-flow price targets for Q3/Q4 2021 (or maybe Q1/Q2 2022?). Three available models. All by Plan B.

A) S2FX (cross asset): ~288K
B) S2F updated: ~100K
C) S2F original: ~55K

These prices are averages. Not tops. Last cycle the average was 7K. And we reached 20K.

https://twitter.com/bitharington/status/1275394161584361478

Three revisions...... number goes up more than previously expected...


That's plan a, b and c.

Still confusing in the form of presentation.... Gotta go back and read fillippone's thread.. maybe that will help lil selfie?

[aesma]

Over 20 African Nations and Haiti already use covid-organic drink and life goes on

Believe in the virus or don't, but you can't not believe in it, and at the same time believe some tea is preventing people from catching it !

[Tash]

Over 20 African Nations and Haiti already use covid-organic drink and life goes on

Believe in the virus or don't, but you can't not believe in it, and at the same time believe some tea is preventing people from catching it !

All the grand woodworm drink is doing is correcting the alkaline/acidic imbalance. Some people evidently can not manage life, cant be bitcoiners.
Bitcoin is about taking care of own life and not depend on others in all aspects.
Yes day by day number of shitcoiners/halve backed bitcoiners grows, unfortunate aspect.
The forum started with 100% bitcoiners, once upon a time in a land far far away...

Some hundred year old’s still capable to bitch slap the odd forum member.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ej-E6rIARw0

[Icygreen]

 
A wise philosopher who made reality funny.  Arguably even more relevant today.  He would have certainly been a Bitcoiner.

George Carlin - germs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo

Life is worth losing/ dumb Americans
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLODGhEyLvk

[JimboToronto]

Believe in the virus or don't, but you can't not believe in it, and at the same time believe some tea is preventing people from catching it !

Placebo effect is a powerful force.

It works both ways. It can increase hypochondria and also cure it.

[Ibian]

Even more importantly, we do not hide out face in western cultures. Leave that to the muslims. Masks are an overall bad idea.

And hoodies. Ban hoodies.

Never liked em. They seem very slumlordy. Sure.

Except of course for practical reasons like lung or cold weather protection.

Then why suggest it? You horrible person.

[Ibian]

Carlin was a fool. In the true sense. Only the fool is allowed to speak the truth to the king.

[Toxic2040]

Speaking of lovey dovey...........

Bitcoin stock-to-flow price targets for Q3/Q4 2021 (or maybe Q1/Q2 2022?). Three available models. All by Plan B.

A) S2FX (cross asset): ~288K
B) S2F updated: ~100K
C) S2F original: ~55K

These prices are averages. Not tops. Last cycle the average was 7K. And we reached 20K.

https://twitter.com/bitharington/status/1275394161584361478

Three revisions...... number goes up more than previously expected...


That's plan a, b and c.

Still confusing in the form of presentation.... Gotta go back and read fillippone's thread.. maybe that will help lil selfie?

[JayJuanGee]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your short term trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x, 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting short term on one direction and then the other and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better..).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  

Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction in short term bets?  Seems like a variation of a Martingale strategy, right?  which works, until it does not.   which works, until it completely wipes out the bettor  

[JimboToronto]

Even more importantly, we do not hide out face in western cultures. Leave that to the muslims. Masks are an overall bad idea.

And hoodies. Ban hoodies.

Never liked em. They seem very slumlordy. Sure.

Except of course for practical reasons like lung or cold weather protection.

Then why suggest it? You horrible person.

Can't have surgeons hiding their faces during operations. Good thing they wear name tags.

Maybe we should microchip them too for positive identification.

[dragonvslinux]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

[JayJuanGee]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x or 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting on one direction and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction?  A variation of a Martingale strategy, right?

I agree that the increased confidence of successful leveraged trade will likely get you rekt, if you keep on increasing your risk. Though it also depends how you are taking your profit (if you are taking it at all). If you're not taking profit and keep re-investing it each time, you'll get rekt. But if you're taking your profit, especially if you're taking your profit in BTC, then even when your initial investment gets rekt you'll still be on top with your BTC.

Then again, I didn't follow all of the referenced thread. I assume it's re-investing profit, which is dumb if so.

Yes.. his case seemed to have been reinvesting profits.

Thanks for keeping me from ranting too much about what I likely do not sufficiently understand in terms of personal experiences... in which, I concede that there could be ways to practically stay profitable through ongoing trading and in the long term.

So, surely, I would not be opposed to all kinds of trading, even though so many folks who trade seem to devolve into some variation of unreasonable gambling which likely causes them to get rekkt more often than they are willing to admit...

In the end, I imagine that there could be ways for a trader to ensure (or assure) that s/he remains profitable, and of course, I am not opposed to banking on what seems to be inevitable volatility in bitcoin.  I am pretty sure that there are ways to do that, even long term.

Surely stacking away profits, like you said, could be one of the possible ways to strive to ensure ongoing profits..... yet understandably, even with stacking away profits there could be some difficulties that come for a trader whose stash keeps getting depleted by wrong calls or an unlucky trading streak..   In those losing streak cases, does the trader merely add to his trading stash, and wouldn't that be cheating? or would a trader just keep making his/her bets smaller until s/he makes up for the losses, the losing streak and the seemingly ever depleting trading stash?

[JayJuanGee]

'may' and '$8,800' are quite a stretch  

in bitcoin anything can happen, being too confident and getting cocky will get you rekt, im always a "may" and never a "will" with bitcoins price

That's why you "may" "will" have abandoned your "cocky" get-rich-quick (on leverage) BTC price prediction thread, when you realized that using leverage in your short term trading might work for a while, but is likely going to cause you to become "rekt" sooner rather than if you had not used leverage - especially when you are too anxious and unreasonable in trying to 20x, 200x or was it 2000x your money, betting short term on one direction and then the other and not engaging in reasonable risk management (another way of suggesting that betting in both directions might be better..).  

What level might not be "too confident" and "too cocky"?  

Does reasonableness exist when playing with leverage and putting most or all of your eggs the basket of in one direction in short term bets?  Seems like a variation of a Martingale strategy, right?  which works, until it does not.   which works, until it completely wipes out the bettor  

Yeah your exactly right, I was quite shit at risk management back then, I have learned better now thats why I say that.

edit: I meant the discipline part of risk management, I knew what to do, just didnt do it properly back then, but I do now

Well, I am glad that you acknowledge that there is a learning experience going on with trading, yet I have my doubts that you can presume that you have fixed all of your errors and learned ironclad risk management, portfolio management or can assure that you have figured out a way to 2000x your investment without first going through a long process of showing a great track record.. which is hard as fuck to do.. not saying that it is impossible, and there are probably some decent techniques. 

Surely, I am not going to fault you for sharing techniques or even creating an ambitious thread to show your work (or your streak of luck), but I will fault you if you try to presume that you know more than other members until you have gone through the process for a while to show that you know things.. because lots of us know things, and sure some members do have better trading or TA skills than others, but the good ones tend to be very humble with their calls and seem to hedge in both directions or sometimes just pull out at certain times, and I am not even sure if that is enough to show some kind of consisting winning system.. because even the good ones admit that they lose a decent number of trades.

Anyhow, members who come off as too bold in their assertions in showing that they "know" the market direction just come off as if they are trying to sell us something, even if it is merely just elevating themselves to a kind of sorcery status, and most of us who have been around a long time realize that there are not short term BTC price prediction sorcerers, even if there might appear to be kinds of longer term sorcerers (as long as they are calling up.. but even we should appreciate that long term up is not guaranteed either).