Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Nice BTC900 ask wall on coinbase @9092 or is this a wrong place for such things?

Somebody ban this jerkoff for off topic posts. Seriously what is this place coming too.

[AlcoHoDL]

Saturday morning. Boring. So I did a calculation:

Background: I collect monthly rent for a small apartment (in the same building where I live), and send the accumulated rent every 6 months to the apartment owner, who lives in another country. We're friends, so I don't take any profits out of this. This has been going on since the beginning of 2015 and continues to this day.

Monthly rent: $150
Amount sent every 6 months: $900
Net profit for my efforts: $0

So I thought: what if I had invested all those rent amounts in Bitcoin? Suppose I bought BTC at the beginning of each month (when I received the monthly rent), and then, at the end of each 6-month period, I sold the accumulated BTC, sent the $900 to my friend, and kept any profits (or cover any losses incurred). How would that work out?

Prices: Bitstamp Historical Data
Period: 2015-01-01 ~ 2020-07-01

Method: I applied the above scenario, but took the worst case, i.e., buying BTC at the highest daily price every 1st of each month (thus obtaining the least amount of BTC), and selling accumulated BTC at the lowest daily price of the last day of each 6-month period (thus obtaining the least amount of fiat). This is the absolute worst-case scenario, so the net profits (or losses) calculated will be the lowest (or highest) possible, respectively.

Here's what I got:



Overall net profit (from 2015 to 2020): +$4,302.52*

It's not much, but it's still better than nothing. This amount is the lowest I could have earned, had I followed my hypothetical scenario above. Instead, what I did was just keeping the rents in my closet (or in the bank). What did I get? Zero, zip, zilch, nada!

I think this is an interesting result, that shows the sheer amount of profits that can be made by smartly (and effortlessly) investing small amounts of fiat you may have lying around (or, perhaps, managing for a friend, like in my case). Note that, applying my scenario above does not involve any data analysis or other effort, this is just blindly applying the above scheduled buy/sell actions without even looking at the price. Of course, this idea could end up in losses, but history has shown that with Bitcoin, gains are virtually guaranteed if you give it enough time to average out the volatility (i.e., the long-term price direction is virtually guaranteed to be upward), so it's almost a win-win situation.

Maybe not HoDL material, but still an interesting experiment/result IMHO.

(*) Exchange & transaction fees not taken into account.

[JSRAW]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

[AlcoHoDL]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

[JayJuanGee]

negging on bitcoin's ongoing developments and some difficulties that come out of ongoing bitcoin developments seems a bit too pessimistic to me

Not pessimistic long term, but I'm not being overly optimistic either. If we see Bitcoin break through $20,000 and maintain support, that would be great. I'm a pretty harsh critic of things, so I don't want to come across as I'm negging on Bitcoin's Layer 2 efforts. I've evaluated one and found it problematic right now, Liquid is entirely unappealing to me, and I'm not really interested in accumulating BTC further via exchanges. Was hoping to see if the fee market was profitable with L2 stuff, and it was not when I closed my Lightning node. Maybe even lost a little bit after fees for establishing channels by locking into Layer 1. I continue to follow Bitcoin on Twitter, but yes, I just hold now. No idea what I should be doing with my BTC, so I just sit on it as if it were a scarce resource.

Want to see us break through and establish firm support above $10,000. Feels like eternal summer with the range it's been trading in for the last couple months.

Fair enough.

If you accumulated a level of BTC that his more or less comfortable to you, then you could just hold them off exchanges, and maybe even cash in a bit here and there from time to time, in the even that you feel that you maybe have a high allocation.

I would presume that any allocation that is 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio could reasonably feel as if it were a reasonable risk level (and allocation).  Of course, individuals who are more risk averse might choose lower allocation levels.

And, yeah, even though there has been some sense that liquidation avenues have been increasing, there still are some senses that AML and KYC requirements are increasing, too, which may or may not be any BIG deal if you cash out some BTC and then just pay the appropriate taxes (if any) that might apply to your situation.

In this thread there are quite a few members who continue to be pretty excited about BTC  and also attempt to follow ongoing BTC happenings, but it is also understandable that there might be some members, like you, who come off as a bit more bleh about the whole situation, even though you seem to be continuing to largely HODL what you have already accumulated.

[JayJuanGee]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

Largely, you are suggesting that you are playing the 6-month float, assessing that it would be profitable so long as you did not end up screwing up and losing the money through some kind of exchange hack or something like that.  Overall, it does not seem like a bad idea, even though technically there could be a bit of a breach of your fiduciary responsibility, even though you are implying that you would pay back the money, even if you ended up losing it due to falling BTC prices or due to some kind of other third party risk that you put the money into, but even if you account for the costs and the risks, you would still end up making money.. so sure, you have to add the exchange fees and other various cost, and maybe including putting on some kind of cost for the third party risk to arrive at a more reasonable number concerning the profitability which would be a bit smaller than the number that you calculated the first time... but probably NOT low enough to cause you to change your mind about doing it.

[heslo]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

Yeah... don't play with someone elses money dude. That being said if you've got the money to cover it and give to him if it goes tits up; it's a bit different. But then just do it with your own $$$

[SuperTA]

We’ll be back to $8,000 by the end of April!

Fucking quote me bruh!

I was bored and i'm currently reading some older posts from the time when bitcoin crashed to 4k. This comment was spot on! Congratulations! Your prediction came true. You said that bitcoin will be back to 8,000 usd by the end of April! You were so right. Bitcoin reeached 8,000 usd on the 29th of April. How did you know that?   There you go, i quoted you LFC_Bitcoin!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

As long as you’d still give him the rent money, even if the bitcoin price goes down then fuck it, he doesn’t need to know. You could definitely make a bit of spare cash holding the rent money in bitcoin before sending him $150 x 6 after 6 months.

Do it!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We’ll be back to $8,000 by the end of April!

Fucking quote me bruh!

I was bored and i'm currently reading some older posts from the time when bitcoin crashed to 4k. This comment was spot on! Congratulations! Your prediction came true. You said that bitcoin will be back to 8,000 usd by the end of April! You were so right. Bitcoin reeached 8,000 usd on the 29th of April. How did you know that?   There you go, i quoted you LFC_Bitcoin!

Because I’m a psychotic permabull
No seriously, I just thought that the world was panicking & weak hands were selling because of covid which was always going to happen. Smart money buys the dip & then we recover. It was just a common sense prediction I guess.

I bought 4BTC under $5,000 during that time, the opposite of going full mindrust.

[SuperTA]

We’ll be back to $8,000 by the end of April!

Fucking quote me bruh!

I was bored and i'm currently reading some older posts from the time when bitcoin crashed to 4k. This comment was spot on! Congratulations! Your prediction came true. You said that bitcoin will be back to 8,000 usd by the end of April! You were so right. Bitcoin reeached 8,000 usd on the 29th of April. How did you know that?   There you go, i quoted you LFC_Bitcoin!

Because I’m a psychotic permabull
No seriously, I just thought that the world was panicking & weak hands were selling because of covid which was always going to happen. Smart money buys the dip & then we recover. It was just a common sense prediction I guess.

I bought 4BTC under $5,000 during that time, the opposite of going full mindrust.

Nice. That's how smart people double their money. In only month or two, fast and easy without any panic. This is very nice example how we should act in those circumstances. Always buy low and sell high.  

[psycodad]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

As long as you’d still give him the rent money, even if the bitcoin price goes down then fuck it, he doesn’t need to know. You could definitely make a bit of spare cash holding the rent money in bitcoin before sending him $150 x 6 after 6 months.

Do it!

In this case he could use his own money to buy Bitchcoin in the first place.

That said, I have been in a similar situation like AlcoHoDL and thought this through more than once. I came to conclude that either I propose this to my friend or otherwise just don't do it as that is not something the verbal and implied agreement between us includes/covers.

[wwzsocki]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

...you are suggesting that you are playing the 6-month float, assessing that it would be profitable so long as you did not end up screwing up and losing the money through some kind of exchange hack or something like that.  Overall, it does not seem like a bad idea... so sure...

I think AlcoHoDL could better start a new thread with this post than comment here because the idea is quite interesting and I am sure that many people would be interested not only to discuss it further, but also to hear some more details about the math behind it. How many profitable six-month periods were there and how did it look exactly (money wise) month after month? Of course, I see the graph but miss the details.

I suppose that many people are in such a situation that they manage some money for a friend, family, business or even if somebody saves actually 100 or 200$ every month on something it could be a way to make few additional bucks. Really great topic to discuss in my opinion and here it will be off-topic if taken too far.

For example, I wonder if the profit could be higher if AlcoHoDL would compound the earned money and for how much or maybe it would be lower because of it?
I am sure there may be many who would have something to add to this topic and here on Wall Observer, this post will disappear very fast because it is a very crowded place with a lot of posts published every day. Is a big waste that such a great discussion opportunity may go unnoticed.

@wwzsocki:... I'm a hardcore WOer. Never visit or start other threads. For me, BitcoinTalk = WO, my bookmarks lead straight here...

[AlcoHoDL]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

As long as you’d still give him the rent money, even if the bitcoin price goes down then fuck it, he doesn’t need to know. You could definitely make a bit of spare cash holding the rent money in bitcoin before sending him $150 x 6 after 6 months.

Do it!

Yeah, he'll definitely get his rent money, those who suggest he may not, just don't know me...

Haven't done it, but I just might start this year. Just a fun little experiment, and a nice story to tell. As for using my friend's money, I'd rather invest it myself in Bitcoin, than let some stinky banker's hands get hold of it (even for 6 months).

@psycodad: Sure I could use my own money, the amounts are so small, that this is just for fun, really, and to demonstrate the power of Bitcoin. As long as I have the means to compensate in case of a loss, I don't consider this a breach of trust or unethical. Not at all. As far as he's concerned, his money is (and always will be) available to him anytime he wants it.

@wwzsocki: Feel free to repost anywhere you want (adding a link to the WO post at the end). I'm a hardcore WOer. Never visit or start other threads. For me, BitcoinTalk = WO, my bookmarks lead straight here. But as I said, feel free to repost.

[btcbeliever]

We’ll be back to $8,000 by the end of April!

Fucking quote me bruh!

I was bored and i'm currently reading some older posts from the time when bitcoin crashed to 4k. This comment was spot on! Congratulations! Your prediction came true. You said that bitcoin will be back to 8,000 usd by the end of April! You were so right. Bitcoin reeached 8,000 usd on the 29th of April. How did you know that?   There you go, i quoted you LFC_Bitcoin!

Because I’m a psychotic permabull
No seriously, I just thought that the world was panicking & weak hands were selling because of covid which was always going to happen. Smart money buys the dip & then we recover. It was just a common sense prediction I guess.

I bought 4BTC under $5,000 during that time, the opposite of going full mindrust.

This prediction is bullish.

Btc does what you least expect!

[JSRAW]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

Sure, you will return him as stakes are low but scenario could change drastically if amount is $9k -$90k so on instead of $900 because profit and loss is speculative in this case. But profit-loss margin is not main concern, important part is your friend doesn't have any slightest idea about your intentions and he's trusting you with his money. I am sure you wouldn't like this idea if roles are reversed. Overall I would say it's not very ethical practice irl

It's like you are about to screw your friend's wife and you are saying it's fine as long as she's going back to your friend. He doesn't need to know anything and you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable. 

[virasog]

[bitcoinPsycho]

Nice BTC900 ask wall on coinbase @9092 or is this a wrong place for such things?

Its probably someone with a very small penis

[JohnBitCo]

Nice BTC900 ask wall on coinbase @9092 or is this a wrong place for such things?

Its probably someone with a very small penis

That can be dangerous too.

[AlcoHoDL]

Good for brainstorming but to me it seems "how to lose friend 101" irl.

The friend will always get his money, he doesn't need to know... And you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable.

Sure, you will return him as stakes are low but scenario could change drastically if amount is $9k -$90k so on instead of $900 because profit and loss is speculative in this case. But profit-loss margin is not main concern, important part is your friend doesn't have any slightest idea about your intentions and he's trusting you with his money. I am sure you wouldn't like this idea if roles are reversed. Overall I would say it's not very ethical practice irl

It's like you are about to screw your friend's wife and you are saying it's fine as long as she's going back to your friend. He doesn't need to know anything and you can always stop if you feel uncomfortable. 

I understand what you're saying, but think of it like this:

When I put his $150 in my bank account, it is mixed with my money, so by using $150/month on BTC and at the same time guaranteeing him $150 for his rent income, I'm essentially using my own money for the investment. Same thing happens in a bank. You put your money in, the bank invests it, or even lends it to others and earns interest. But the bank guarantees (theoretically at least) that they're going to give you back your money when you request it.

About screwing my friend's wife, of course you're absolutely right in this case. It's unethical and I would never do it.