I question the value of what appears to be the underlying premise of your question, to the extent that it is even possible to successfully predict the BTC price direction in any kind of meaningful way
But, I didn't propose this to successfully predict the price. I'm just interested to see who's making the most successful predictions. No?
Fair enough. You have a right towards considering what is important, and my response was largely an indirect way of attempting to say that I don't consider it to be very important.. or at least not as important as personally preparing for both BTC price directions, but especially UP.
People have their priorities... so yeah, I have historically been pretty aggressively negative towards peeps who are proclaiming to have high levels of certainty regarding the BTC price direction..... so maybe we are getting into my personal pet peeves... ...and yeah.. if there are claims about who is more correct and ways to actually scientifically show that kind of correctness, I would be amazed.. I would imagine that there are quite a few folks who can claim to be correct, but they make vague ass predictions that might go in a kind of direction, and then later proclaim that they are correct, and they might even have predictions going in both directions.. it does not seem to be an easy or even a worthy of time task to be striving to figure out who is the best of the sorcerers or the best of the sorcerer wannabes.. but that's my opinion.. you can spend your brain power and efforts however you believe to be most beneficial.
"Fortune favors the Brave"
crash imminent, bitcoin is now dead for the next 2 years confirmed
edit: not worried about bitcoin, since 1btc = 1btc, but all others, nfts...and all that pile of vaporware
good luck with that. Seems that you will need it.
You also made a similar prediction when we were around $35k.. so I suppose that was your selling point.
Remember?
You were planning on selling and buying back lower?
I suppose if you already sold at $35k-ish, then you are quite anxious to figure out a buying back point.. and you would prefer to be in profits rather than chasing the train.. but you may need a lot of good Karma for that.. including that you should not have sold in the first place.
A better position to be in would have been someone who bought (instead of sold) in the $35k-ish price territory.... then you would be ahead of the game and waiting for the price to come to you rather than talking nonsense out of hope that the price will come to you so that you can buy back in.
To me it seems like a kind of gambling
luck is what you are hoping for.. and at this point, maybe even a bit of a long shot, too. At this point, given our BTC price dynamics, it is no longer clear that $31,951 is going to be retested as so many (even bitcoin bulls) were believing a few weeks ago, and even though I am not convinced that our "bottom is in" absent getting above $46k and staying there for a day or so (and even then I would not be overly confident, but confident enough to start to feel that the "bottom is in", the odds are quite a bit higher now that the "bottom is in" as compared with even a couple of weeks ago.. back when you sold your BTC in the $35k-ish price arena.
Not really a BIG deal that you sold at or close to the bottom while planning on buying back lower, there are quite a few people who make those attempts or feel that they need such insurance, and maybe it is less of a BIG deal so long as you did not employ very much of your stash (less than a few percentage points perhaps?) and that you did not use leverage.. hopefully you did not do that, right?
Over the years, we (including your truly) have seen quite a few examples of guys talking their book while acting like they are not and cheering for down while being convinced that the bottom is not yet in, and many times mistakes are made when either greed/fear sinks in and guys do the opposite of what they should be doing upon a 50% price drop (for example). Yeah, I know it can be difficult to buy when the BTC price had dropped 50%, but buying after a 50% price drop does tend to be a better move in contrast to selling and waiting for the BTC price to go down further and hoping that we are in a bear market (which is at best a 50/50 proposition.. maybe even a 49/51 or lower proposition.. so not wise to be betting on short-term BTC price moves when the odds are not really as much in your favor as some
(likely wrong) folks are proclaiming your odds to be.
Now, sad again that your lack of confidence in bitcoin is coming out and you are one of those proclaiming down for the next 2 years.. yeah right... right...
It could happen, but I would not be proclaiming high odds of such.. even anything above 50/50 would likely be higher than realistic levels of confidence, at this point.
Edit:By the way fr4nkthetank, I likely misread some of the seeming sarcasm in your post, and I will admit that initially, I was getting you mixed up in my head with UnDerDoG81 who posted this:
Everybody so bearish, even here in this thread. Looks like selling now and buying back at 5-10k is not so stupid right? Seriously, anybody considering selling now? I mean sentiment is clearly bearish. Dump should at least continue until Tuesday. Insiders will then know what the FED will do on Wednesday. 33.8k seems like was not the bottom and little bounce has been driven down again. Maybe good time to sell and buy back lower?
I went through many dumps since 2013 but this one, sentiment is like Bitcoin is surely death this time lol...
but you had posted something similar.. even though not exactly as extreme and directly disclosing of bear sentiments as UnDerDoG81.
Remember? You posted the below which was a bit less bearish?
9) I view the question differently. I need some DOWN action, maybe around 28k-31k for a very short time period, say 24-36 hours. Then I know the UP motion will be in for good. Assuming the cycle hasn't ended until the next one. Assuming cycles still exist. However the drop to 32-33k was very short and that may have been what I was looking for, therefore the UP is confirmed. So in conclusion, I have no idea.
Also found an interesting quote somewhere : "Proudhon was the master of us all"
Even though you may have been joking, I am not going to change the substance of anything that I said above because my above post was meant as a substantive commentary regarding any expressed certainty of a 2-year bear market whether we are talking about bitcoin or if the various shitcoins/NFTs and other scams might drag down bitcoin's price or be drug down themselves. Surely there is quite a bit of ambiguity in what you said, and surely none of my comments are meant to delve too much into your personal bitcoin stash management...
Ultimately, bitcoin stash management is a product of various choices that each of us make. whether we sell and/or the extent to which we might be concerned about our books when we discuss bitcoin direction/dynamics.. For sure, any of us can get somewhat scared after a 50% dip of the price and inadequately prepare ourselves for UP, so I am not even excluding anyone from making those kinds of potential mistakes.. even with your seeming joke of assigning pretty high values to down.... no? overly preparing for down has been a pretty common ongoing mistake amongst newbies and amongst more experienced bitcoiners... names needed? I doubt it..
Hey, I just looked at your profile, and you have been around these here parts for as long as me.. so by now, you should have your BTC portfolio under decent control by now, no? You don't need to assign seemingly overly optimistic values to down do you? or is my sense of humor just devolving into suckie levels?
Poll
