Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things.

I will bite my tongue.... for the moment... I should not be overly sassy towards my elders...

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

You are gravitating on the changes in the rates, and I was gravitating upon how the housing sales' season might play into these matters, so if the interest rates are at or near their top, then those kinds of up and down changes (even if there is a pivot) may well not likely change the trajectory that people already find that they are not able to sell houses all summer long and maybe no one really wants to come down significantly in their prices, but by the end of the housing sales season (August/September) perhaps a decent number of folks start to panic.. and then by the time we are in November we are in off season, so why would housing start to boom during off season.. even if there are favorable interest rates, the next season would not start until March or so of the following year (2024).

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[MCUKing]

Long story Short for the past few months.

[MCUKing]

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

Does his statement matter? Because what if he says something in the completely opposite manner it would be just a statement so take it as a statement. I would like to hear some statements from a B2B platform like Alibaba there were a few rumors that the new appointing manager is pro Bitcoin (Just imagine if they take Bitcoin as their payment option it will be trend starter).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things.

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

One thing I've learned after a few decades of real estate investing is that the housing market moves extremely slow.  It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  We all see rates are too high and houses are unaffordable.  We all see the middle class being squeezed with inflation.  We're all aware that houses shot up in price mainly because banks were buying them like crazy in anticipation of high inflation.  The only thing keeping people in their houses right now is that inflation coupled with investment has buoyed housing prices.  I personally think without high inflation keeping prices high, we would be seeing a 2008 style crash.  As it is, we'll likely see a correction but stubborn inflation will limit it, and if the fed keeps rates high and jobs numbers start to turn south, things could get bad and remain that way for a couple years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Today: 30 year mortgage 7.7%, refinance 8.08%
Who's able to buy apart from cash buyers?

Still, prices do not show much of a decline (yet).
https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage-rates-jump-to-20-year-high-7557902

It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.

People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.

Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?

Real estate fireworks in September or so?  Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?  

I'm just throwing out random ideas.  I don't really claim to know much of anything.

See we can agree on a few things.

Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.

But if we do 25 points in July and  25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.

Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .

One thing I've learned after a few decades of real estate investing is that the housing market moves extremely slow.  It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.  We all see rates are too high and houses are unaffordable.  We all see the middle class being squeezed with inflation.  We're all aware that houses shot up in price mainly because banks were buying them like crazy in anticipation of high inflation.  The only thing keeping people in their houses right now is that inflation coupled with investment has buoyed housing prices.  I personally think without high inflation keeping prices high, we would be seeing a 2008 style crash.  As it is, we'll likely see a correction but stubborn inflation will limit it, and if the fed keeps rates high and jobs numbers start to turn south, things could get bad and remain that way for a couple years.

Yeah..all things considered, I would be surprised if we did not re-visit the pre-March 2020 prices, but it could take 5-7 years.
Some people are saying "wait until mortgage interest rate goes back to 5%", suggesting that it would inflate the price even more, but who would be able to afford it?

[Out of mind]

Pick your lucky number.

2010: I have only 600 bitcoins

2014: 21 #btc    = 1M club

2018: you need 6.15 #btc   

2022: a whole #bitcoin   

2026: 21 million #sats is the new special club

2030: 1 million #sats
Source

[FinePoine0]

Fiat Not Hold   But   Best Bitcoin Hodl..

[EmpoEX]

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

 Why would we care about JPMorgan's beliefs?  They have already missed the boat a few times on Bitcoin.  As an aside, Sonali Basak is a good-looking woman... I wonder if she has any bitcoin.

[dansus021]

JPMorgan Doubts That the Approval of a US Bitcoin ETF Would Be a Game-Changer. Such funds have existed in Canada and Europe for years already. Bitcoin funds overall have attracted little investor interest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-07/jpmorgan-says-a-bitcoin-etf-wouldn-t-be-an-industry-game-changer

 Why would we care about JPMorgan's beliefs?  They have already missed the boat a few times on Bitcoin.  As an aside, Sonali Basak is a good-looking woman... I wonder if she has any bitcoin.

Forget about JPMorgan, The data said Bitcoin etf is F*cking growing  Sonali Basak is indeed a good-looking woman I bet she has a bitcoin 

- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/best-bitcoin-etfs/

Need this franchise in town 

[FinePoine0]

A Bitcoin education institute has been launched in South Africa called "Bitcoin Ekasi".



"Bitcoin Ekasi" institute will teach English among other subjects to the youth.  
And will provide bitcoin education to youth groups of adults.

(Bitcoin Ekasi) organization has already added ten business organizations for Bitcoin in this area. The educational institution has already contracted 20 youngsters and aims to round up their presence in the near future. And it is true that the organization will go further because the desire of people for Bitcoin education is high especially the youth.

Details: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-ekasi-launches-education-center-in-south-africa

[dzungmobile]

Nice weekend Wall Observers.

I have a question and hopefully some Wall Observers can help me.
What term to use? Halving or Halvening? Term history

If you know histories about these terms, halving, halvening, more than what my research found, please drop your replies, I much appreciate your time.

[philipma1957]

Nice weekend Wall Observers.

I have a question and hopefully some Wall Observers can help me.
What term to use? Halving or Halvening? Term history

If you know histories about these terms, halving, halvening, more than what my research found, please drop your replies, I much appreciate your time.

i answered my use of ½ ing i found a post from 2015.

it linked it to your other thread.

[Bd officer]

[Learn Bitcoin]

This is Dorian Nakamoto in the picture. He is alleged Satoshi!
We don't know who is REAL Satoshi!

[nutildah]

This is Dorian Nakamoto in the picture. He is alleged Satoshi!
We don't know who is REAL Satoshi!

Dorian Nakamoto is traditionally used to represent Satoshi in memes, however unfair it is to him, because its a basic human desire to put a face behind an idea. Who should they use instead, this guy?



Its the same reason why the media often uses pictures of physical coins with BTC on them when presenting a story about bitcoin, even though a physical coin isn't bitcoin.