Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[God Of Thunder]

Bob where are you?

Wasn't he saying we cannot hold 30K?

I understand the six-pack abs, but where this navel came from?

[ivomm]

It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring.

[WatChe]

...

If the ban is not lifted, but you accumulate enough bitcoins, it will be possible to move to a bitcoin-friendly country like El Salvador for a while. Of course, it is unpleasant when it is your country that bans bitcoin, but, fortunately, there are more progressive states in the world.

It will depend on how much crypto I have and future of crypto in the country.

...

...

Moving does not seem to be practical advice.  How to fix from within?  How to subvert?  Of course, no one is advocating breaking laws, and so we can sometimes have tensions between speech and action of individuals and what some other individuals might want you to do or not do... Are they really representing the interests and needs of the people?  These are likely not easy decisions for any of us who might be in jurisdictions in which we do not always agree with what kinds of rules are in place that may well restrict certain important aspects of our lives, liberties, properties.... interactions and transactions of value.

We must respect and follow the law. To be rationale, the government (Pakistan) is somewhat true in imposing the ban. Since laws here are fragile and one can very easily do money laundering with crypto here. The Ban is fine for short term till the time government do his working to stop illegal use of crypto but it will do more harm to people and government if the ban is imposed for long term.

[philipma1957]

Looks like the financial markets aren’t happy about the latest jobs report. The strong hiring numbers have taken some wind out of the sails of investors as it is evidence that the fed may still have some room left to tighten monetary policy, which will strengthen the dollar and send equity values downward. Amazing how good news is bad news in this new post 9/11 economy.

There is no doubt in my mind we get at least 2 rate hikes of 0.25%

Before fed pivots.

 For your info

Next hike is in around 3 weeks July 25-26 which falls on my late mom's 94th birthday

July       25-26 +0.25
Sept      19-20 +0.25
Oct/Nov  31-1  pivot move
Dec.       12-13 back the pivot up

We get that and BTC will whale in the fall.

[Torque]

That ADP jobs report was total bullshit.

High paying jobs in finance and tech sectors actually decreased.

Minimum wage jobs and temp work at summer restaurants, theme parks and resorts don't count.

Those jobs will vanish again when summer is over.

Plus I'm sure the total jobs number was padded like hell.

The Fed just wants to justify more rate hikes, that is all. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

Just another fake pump.

Aren't they all?

Just another fake pump.

One of them will be real

Bob where are you?

Enjoying himself offline.


Reporter (at Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest)..."Congratulations Joey!..16 Mustard Belts. How do you feel with Mother Nature and rain coming in here?

Joey... (in his mind, after scarfing 62 hot dogs) "Mother Nature is calling actually, where's the men's room?"

https://youtu.be/5AI5nCkE1xM?t=595


GO BITCOIN

[philipma1957]

That ADP jobs report was total bullshit.

High paying jobs in finance and tech sectors actually decreased.

Minimum wage jobs and temp work at summer restaurants, theme parks and resorts don't count.

Those jobs will vanish again when summer is over.

Plus I'm sure the total jobs number was padded like hell.

The Fed just wants to justify more rate hikes, that is all. 

Most people don't realize a lot of these rate hikes are a bailout for USA long term care industry.

The industry is very restricted in how they invest premiums and over the years the low fed bonds have crushed them.

The USA gov does not want to explain this to the public and you do not hear or read a lot about this 5 trillion dollar industry.

Since my bro-in-law got sick and has really really really really good policy coverage I got into reading about the entire industry.

In Nov-Dec 2021 and Jan 2022 fed bonds were next to nothing and every major company in LONG term care industry was next to bankrupt. Here we are Just about 18 months later all steady rate increases and the industry is recovering.

They need 2 more jumps July and Sept then flat or pivot by the fed for the the last 2 this year.

They will allow them to have there moneis ready to pay the aging baby boomers that are owners of these policies.

You won't find much about this anywhere but here on the WO from me.

I have more data and posted on this on the WO more than once.

Think of the baby boomers as the very large lump in a big snake as time moves on the lump will shrink and the long term care company won't need a high rate bailout for a decade or more.

I am lazy and could show all the numbers but just do research on 2 major company Say Genworth LTC and John Hancock LTC

Look are the bankruptcy risk analysis for them in

Dec 21
Dec 22
July 23

you will find both of them are now much better off the fall of 21

all due to rising rates.

The gov actively tries to force large money to move around by fucking with the rates.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Man... I don't think $30k is gunna hold...

I hope your magic works just like the last times

Be better off with a flash drop to 23 or 24 k. A nice v shape move..

But this sweet fella Freak Soloway said that the price will drop to $3k. Should I still wait for it?
Waiting for your advices 

$22k seems to be the new $3k (at least for some people.. aka low coiner, no coiners, bitcoin naysayers, those who sold too many coins too soon and praying for downity that may or may not happen)...

Sure, it is becoming more and more likely that the $15,479 bottom (from November 2022) is in, and of course, not even that is guaranteed.. but we still have folks who are "counting on" decent sized dips that may or may not happen. 

There's nothing wrong with having fiat available for dips down to $22k or even lower prices (such as our current $15,479 bottom), but placing too much hope in those kinds of Downity prices playing out may well be a fools errand, and likely it is not good to be overly hoping for down - when it is also possible that we might never see sub $30k again.. and surely the higher the target BTC buy price (or the closer that the target BTC buy price is to the current price) then the higher the odds that we will see those higher prices again.. but being greedy and expecting down before UP might not be a strategy that is going to work - even though historically we have seen guys profit from Down before UP predictions, but we have also seen guys get reckt and having to chase the train because they insufficiently/inadequately prepared for UP while they were cheerleading so heavily for DOWN.

Gosh.... think about it, we have had more than a year to be accumulating BTC at prices that have mostly been below our current BTC price of $30.3k - and even you BTCaesar have had more than 3 years in BTC (if we go by your forum registration date), and if you had been consistently buying BTC for that whole time, you would surely be in a decently good position right now - and perhaps even better if you had front loaded your investment.. but even a consistent $100 per week would have caused you to spend around $16.7k and you would have a bit more than 3/4 of a bitcoin with 0.7551 BTC.

[shahzadafzal]

How’s the new threads game going guys?

I think I’m following some of you guys on twitter. Have you joined threads?

It’s less than 24 hours it has already crossed 40 million users.



P.S. No privacy lectures please  

It’s understood if something is free, we are the product.

[HI-TEC99]

Observing $31k.

BTC at 31K level now is time to partyyyyy



You want some guysss  

you gotta manage your farmer accounts better...  your post is an hour too late

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[HI-TEC99]

It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring.

[JayJuanGee]

It's been like Groundhog Day movie for the last 2 weeks. It's just boring.

Doesn't seem boring to this here cat.  Fewls pretty good. 

Think about it.

We have had a year to accumulate.. so surely we are not in a bad place.

Down before UP?

Up before down?

Up before Up?

How would yours truly truly know? 


#askafiend?



Protip: Trying to pee pare my lil selfie for any of the scenarios.. of course with a wee bit of an UPpity bias - as seems to always be the preference for those of "us" who are largely HODLing cornz.. rather than fucking around with other likely to be less sane strategies.

..

If the ban is not lifted, but you accumulate enough bitcoins, it will be possible to move to a bitcoin-friendly country like El Salvador for a while. Of course, it is unpleasant when it is your country that bans bitcoin, but, fortunately, there are more progressive states in the world.

It will depend on how much crypto I have and future of crypto in the country.

Oh gosh..... Don't do that!!!!!!!!!!

...

...

Moving does not seem to be practical advice.  How to fix from within?  How to subvert?  Of course, no one is advocating breaking laws, and so we can sometimes have tensions between speech and action of individuals and what some other individuals might want you to do or not do... Are they really representing the interests and needs of the people?  These are likely not easy decisions for any of us who might be in jurisdictions in which we do not always agree with what kinds of rules are in place that may well restrict certain important aspects of our lives, liberties, properties.... interactions and transactions of value.

We must respect and follow the law. To be rationale, the government (Pakistan) is somewhat true in imposing the ban. Since laws here are fragile and one can very easily do money laundering with crypto here. The Ban is fine for short term till the time government do his working to stop illegal use of crypto but it will do more harm to people and government if the ban is imposed for long term.

Of course, you have to figure out your own path in terms of the extent to which you believe that laws are just or even regarding how you might interpret the laws and your role in society as a citizen.. and surely governments should have mandates to be acting within the interests of citizens, but sometimes they are not exactly even-keeled in their own propagation of rules or their ways of talking about what they are doing (or trying to do) might not exactly match with their rhetoric.. in regards, to some governments (government officials) actually lie to their citizens, if you had not realized that way of the real world.

Looks like the financial markets aren’t happy about the latest jobs report. The strong hiring numbers have taken some wind out of the sails of investors as it is evidence that the fed may still have some room left to tighten monetary policy, which will strengthen the dollar and send equity values downward. Amazing how good news is bad news in this new post 9/11 economy.

There is no doubt in my mind we get at least 2 rate hikes of 0.25%

Before fed pivots.
 For your info

Next hike is in around 3 weeks July 25-26 which falls on my late mom's 94th birthday
July       25-26 +0.25
Sept      19-20 +0.25
Oct/Nov  31-1  pivot move
Dec.       12-13 back the pivot up
We get that and BTC will whale in the fall.

And we would likely be dumb and/or short-sighted if we are trying to figure out our own BTC holdings, accumulation of BTC or preparing for UPpity merely based on what we think that the Fed may or may not do... since dee cornz is not exactly a correlated asset, if you had not noticed.   

[El duderino_]

Btw

Van Aert riding a good tour imo

[coolcoinz]

In case anyone is wondering which are the next ETF deadline:




Cathie Wood has been quite optimistic about ARK filing...

Anybody else finds this to be outrageous that a government institution has more than 6 months to give an answer? It's not like there's 1 guy working there who has to go through 1000 pages of filings. There's an army of clerks and assistants with computers, who could go through a filing and write an answer within a week.
I'm not a fan of Black Rock, but the SEC is trying so hard to be as annoying and as lazy as possible. Some of these people are earning more than 100k each year farting in their chairs all day and then 8 months later they call the company to say "You know what? You forgot a few commas in there and missed a capital letter, so we're denying it, good luck next time!"

That ADP jobs report was total bullshit.

High paying jobs in finance and tech sectors actually decreased.

Minimum wage jobs and temp work at summer restaurants, theme parks and resorts don't count.

Those jobs will vanish again when summer is over.

Plus I'm sure the total jobs number was padded like hell.

The Fed just wants to justify more rate hikes, that is all.  

I'm more amazed that we live in a world where more unemployment is somehow good news.

But this sweet fella Freak Soloway said that the price will drop to $3k. Should I still wait for it?
Waiting for your advices 

3k? Last time I saw him (in 2022) he was saying that it's somewhere between 10 and 12k. But then, Tone Vays was calling for 1k bitcoin in 2020...
Bears will be bears.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Who is John Galt?]

Maybe you are from a country with a passport that does not preclude you?  Sure, it might be possible to move depending on age and various connections that people might have in their own country and/or barriers that people might have in terms of entering other countries... and then perhaps questions of selecting where they might want to live.. but still, I am not going to presume that moving is necessarily a realistic option for as many people as you seem to want to presume.

The only one-size-fits-all solution I see is the legislative approval of bitcoin for citizens. All other decisions are purely individual. If bitcoin is banned in the country, then waiting until everything is resolved right at home can be too long. The whole country will not be able to move, and there is no point, because then the government would have to listen and allow bitcoin in that case.

But the individual solution may be different. If the accumulated capital allows, then the passport will not be an obstacle. If some years ago, 10 thousand bitcoins could only buy a little pizza, now El Salvador offers a residency by investment program, where it is enough to invest only 3 bitcoins in the country. As the price of bitcoin rises, it is likely that a smaller fraction of bitcoin can become significant capital.

Of course, it's hard to be sure, but I think a lot of people on this forum are pinning their hopes on bitcoin for a better future. Why not?