[Edited out]
Let me elaborate...I think about it mathematically.
If a parameter, such as price, can differ by 10X in a few months, to me it means that I cannot ascertain the "real" value of my btc and, consequently, the % of value of btc in my portfolio, therefore I call it a zero, similarly to how people say to not count your house in your liquid net worth because for me, bitcoin is NOT liquid.
Of course, it could be, as it is not liquid just for my perception of it in the portfolio.
Additionally, 200WMA is a great approximation, but even that has limitations-it was undercut by 20-30% in 2022 as far as I remember.
So, if someone count their net asset value based on 200WMA (as you do, supposedly), they are being prudent, but with limitations.
Can we go to much lower prices than 200WMA in a sharp economic downturn?
Surely, but i am not predicting it at all, just talk about price move probabilities.
Finally, maybe I am just a bit tired of this crab market.
From my perspective, you have not really helped to clarify your perspective. It is almost like you don't even appreciate bitcoin, even after at least as much time as me, in bitcoin, and sure, not everyone is going to figure out some kind of a comfortable way to valuate their bitcoin holdings, but you still seem to be getting caught upon seemingly out of touch frame works.
If we first take your assertion that bitcoin's price can change in value by many multiples and potentially magnitudes in a few months, then surely that level of volatility can present dilemmas, yet any of us who have been into bitcoin for a while (even around a whole cycle or more) should already have some ballpark ideas about what we expect to do during such high volatility periods, whether that volatility is to the upside or to the downside.
Sure someone in his first whole cycle might not have had figured out his plan, and surely he would be better off to figure out his plan, and hopefully he does not choose too dumbedly.
I frequently suggest that newbies in their first whole bitcoin cycle probably should attempt to concentrate more on ongoing accumulation of bitcoin rather than trying to figure out if bitcoin is a good price of not, and surely you are in the camp that you want to try to strategize various lump sum investments - which I think that your position causes way more internal dilemmas than my own system.. .causes internal dilemmas regarding what you believe that you yourself should do and also provides internal dilemmas in regards to how you talk to others about bitcoin, whether no coiners or low coiners.
I don't have any such dilemma, since I tell every person who does not have any bitcoin or who does not have enough bitcoin to either get started buying bitcoin right away in the case of the no coiner and to continue buying without hesitation for the low coiner... for the low coiner, buy until you get enough or you get more than enough... and you have to figure out when you have reached such spot of enough and/or more than enough.
In regards to the 200-WMA, I think that provides a great grounding, since it mostly represents BTC's bottom price, even though you rightly pointed out that we had extended periods below the 200-WMA between June 2022 and October 2023 (which is largely 16 months), and we even had as low as 36% below the 200-WMA at the peak of the 2022 low point. I still don't see those periods of dipping below the 200-WMA as deterrents in regards to continuing to count such 200-WMA as our approximation of our bottom, and really who the fuck cares, because we have no guarantees in life anyhow, and if there are periods in which bitcoin is way under priced, then hopefully we have ways of managing those negative times by perhaps cashing out some extra cash during times that bitcoin is in periods of overvaluation... and so yeah, each of us has to learn how to manage our bitcoin portfolio and figure out the extent to which we are still accumulating bitcoin, or maybe we consider ourselves more an in a maintenance stage, or alternatively we might have gotten into some kind of liquidation stage that may well be related to sustainable withdrawal (price based and/or time based).
In regards to anything can happen, sure theoretically, even though some things are more probable than others, including that we are currently in a bull market, until we are not. If we feel some kind of a need to shave off some extra cornz because we are scared that the BTC price might drop, then sure maybe we can do that if we already have enough BTC or more than enough, but if we have not reached such status of overaccumulation then we either just continue to HODL through these kinds of periods, or we just continue to buy more BTC until we reach a status of sufficient accumulation or more than enough accumulation.
Maybe we are beating at dead arguments, since I just continue to have trouble recognizing how you seem to be having troubles valuating your 20 BTC that have outperformed all of your other investments, yet at the same time, you want to act as if they are not "solid enough" for you, as if there are some better and more solid investments out there. Call me delusional, since I believe that the 200-WMA remains a quite solid way of valuating BTC holdings, including making comparisons of the 200-WMA to spot prices in terms of assisting with potential guidance about how much BTC is enough and whether a guy might transition from his BTC accumulation stage, to his BTC maintenance stage and then hopefully to some kind of a sustainable withdrawal stage (or alternatively liquidation stage).
By the way, I feel like reaching through the computer and batslapping you, yet I doubt that would even help matters, even if I held you by the collar, shook you a bit and requested that you snap out of it, like the scene in Airplane.
There have been nearly a few years that I have already been trying to figure out various guidelines for how guys can start to employ sustainable withdrawal practices, including that even some of my conversations with forum member Deathwish (aka Nullius) about his losses in 2022, I had been even thinking about sustainable ways to set up budgets for business or whatever to be able to sustainably support someone like a developer, and even in mid-2022, I was thinking that a budget could have had been stretched from around 21 bitcoin to support a developer, which would have then have had a
200-WMA valuation of nearly $500k, and the BTC price was then below the 200-WMA, yet now, I am thinking that even the then 21 bitcoin in March 2022 could have had supported around a $50k per year withdrawal rate (even if the 200-WMA was ONLY giving a value of $425k to the then 21 BTC), even continuing to withdraw at that rate through the negative BTC price times between mid-2022 and October 2023.Bitcoin is liquid, unlike a house, and sure maybe we might become concerned about some of the tax ramifications for the guy who started with 21 bitcoin in mid-2022, and his $50k-ish per year withdrawal rate might have currently brought his bitcoin stash down to 17.5 BTC. So even if the guy had withdrawn around
3.5 BTC between March 2022 and today, his 17.5 remaining BTC would still have a current spot price of about $1.5 million and a 200-WMA of $782k, which is a 200-WMA that is $357k higher than what it was 3 years earlier $782-$425).
I am having troubles coming up with scenarios in which sustainable withdrawal rates cannot be figured out attained and sustained, especially for guys who try to work within budgets that are based on giving considerations to the 200-WMA..and perhaps moderating their BTC withdrawal rates when the BTC spot prices are at or below the 200-WMA, and my formulas even suggest that reductions start once the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, which most of bitcoin's price history it has been more than 25% above the 200-WMA...and surely with a bit of planning, there may be abilities to withdraw extra amounts of BTC (or dollars) when the BTC price is at quite high percentages above the 200-WMA.. which we also have seen many times in bitcoin's price history. Sure it is not guaranteed, but it still seems to provide very workable guidelines, especially for guys who have figured out that they have reached overaccumulation levels of BTC.
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