Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Coinseeker]

ahhh...it's the libertarian morning show in the Wall Observer.  I'm gonna need more coffee...and tin foil.  

[ChartBuddy]

[michaelGedi]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

[fourkey2001]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

[Its About Sharing]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

[oda.krell]

Here are the results of my recent (mtgox) order book calculations. As always, to be taken with a large grain of salt, since the order book is of course a primary tool for manipulation.

Apart from the obvious findings (rather big ask wall at 120; significant drop of bid/ask ratio over the weekend, from a peak of ~140 to ~120, now slightly going up again), the average of the 'all orders market execution price' is going up again, after going down about 10 USD over the weekend, indicating more bids/less asks and a better price composition. Finally, price composition in the range of the previous bid/ask totals also improved slightly, prices up about 2% compared to 12h ago.

Looks good to me. Word of caution though: with similar, in fact: even better values at the end of last week (my calculations showed a peak of the above values on the 10th), we barely passed 120, and not for long either. So I'm not exactly holding my breath that we're going to break 125 this week, although I'm not ruling it out either.

On the other hand, as I have posted multiple times now, as long as those metrics (and the related money flow metrics) don't substantially change in the coming days, I really don't see the potential for any sharp decline either.

[fluidjax]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Remember Europe, a small group of countries between US and India (timezone wise)
Well the FTSE is down -0.21%  and the rest of Europe is only down between 0%-0.5%, any impending crash would have been indicated in London before the US opened. So this fall is not indicated, in fact Nikkei is up 1.25%, plus I don't think I have seen any evidence that the worlds stock markets have any direct effect on BTC price. Its is a little world of its own at the moment.

[yokosan]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Remember Europe, a small group of countries between US and India (timezone wise)
Well the FTSE is down -0.21%  and the rest of Europe is only down between 0%-0.5%, any impending crash would have been indicated in London before the US opened. So this fall is not indicated, in fact Nikkei is up 1.25%, plus I don't think I have seen any evidence that the worlds stock markets have any direct effect on BTC price. Its is a little world of its own at the moment.

Wouldn't base anything on Nikkei they are printing money like crazy and all the exporters are reaping the rewards.

[michaelGedi]

and positive and interesting news keeps flowing:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1e7s1h/nextgen_broker_set_on_growth_path/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=199424

Here are the results of my recent (mtgox) order book calculations. As always, to be taken with a large grain of salt, since the order book is of course a primary tool for manipulation.

Apart from the obvious findings (rather big ask wall at 120; significant drop of bid/ask ratio over the weekend, from a peak of ~140 to ~120, now slightly going up again), the average of the 'all orders market execution price' is going up again, after going down about 10 USD over the weekend, indicating more bids/less asks and a better price composition. Finally, price composition in the range of the previous bid/ask totals also improved slightly, prices up about 2% compared to 12h ago.

Looks good to me. Word of caution though: with similar, in fact: even better values at the end of last week (my calculations showed a peak of the above values on the 10th), we barely passed 120, and not for long either. So I'm not exactly holding my breath that we're going to break 125 this week, although I'm not ruling it out either.

On the other hand, as I have posted multiple times now, as long as those metrics (and the related money flow metrics) don't substantially change in the coming days, I really don't see the potential for any sharp decline either.

sideways is bullish - cancelling out a deflating bubble. I remember jumping on the bitcoin bandwagon over a month ago and the argument was not so much about whether or not bitcoin was going to crash, but how hard it was going to "correct".

Maybe the correction is over?

*speculation*

[DougTanner]

Looks like the price has survived the weekend. I wonder if we'll continue up soon.

[rezurect]

Talks of Prime Ministers Replacement, causing Indian stock index to go down.
Rest of the world isn't supposed to follow for that reason.
Even if it does ,isnt another cypress effect expected?

[oda.krell]

[...]

Maybe the correction is over?

*speculation*

I gave up on answering that particular question. Too many variables, too much uncertainty. My current lookahead is approximately 1 week, and not much further. And so far, indicators are good that this week will be positive or at least stable. That's good enough for me :)

[michaelGedi]

[...]

Maybe the correction is over?

*speculation*

I gave up on answering that particular question. Too many variables, too much uncertainty. My current lookahead is approximately 1 week, and not much further. And so far, indicators are good that this week will be positive or at least stable. That's good enough for me

haha, brilliant idea... let bitcoin provide the answer in the long run instead of trying to calculate it

[ChartBuddy]

[Ultraviolet]

1300 BTC wall (which is a huge wall by recent volume's standards) just went up at 118.19 before a 500 BTC sell off. After sell off it moves to 117.89.

I've been thinking the last few days that with the ask depth being piled up so high and prices not able to make any real progress beyond 118, any large downward movement, something that took the price down to 103-104, in the market could trigger a cascade of stop-loss and panic sells as people look for an exit fearing prices won't rebound.

[Its About Sharing]

Here are the results of my recent (mtgox) order book calculations. As always, to be taken with a large grain of salt, since the order book is of course a primary tool for manipulation.

Apart from the obvious findings (rather big ask wall at 120; significant drop of bid/ask ratio over the weekend, from a peak of ~140 to ~120, now slightly going up again), the average of the 'all orders market execution price' is going up again, after going down about 10 USD over the weekend, indicating more bids/less asks and a better price composition. Finally, price composition in the range of the previous bid/ask totals also improved slightly, prices up about 2% compared to 12h ago.

Looks good to me. Word of caution though: with similar, in fact: even better values at the end of last week (my calculations showed a peak of the above values on the 10th), we barely passed 120, and not for long either. So I'm not exactly holding my breath that we're going to break 125 this week, although I'm not ruling it out either.

On the other hand, as I have posted multiple times now, as long as those metrics (and the related money flow metrics) don't substantially change in the coming days, I really don't see the potential for any sharp decline either.

I just went through it as well and clearly there is money starting to flow back into BTC. It is not huge, but the first decent jump I've recorded in a week or so and the bids (130k) at $70 are higher now than any (I've) recorded.
Sell side $ value at 100k and 50k are up as well. Things starting to creep.

But, as you said, manipulation can occur here, but still a good sign. I don't see any big walls anyway, it is the many small ones we can't see.
Edit - I now see the walls coming up.

[Coinseeker]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[michaelGedi]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick.  Nothing more, nothing less.

bold statement... I don't think anyone with a brain now will be expecting to get rich quick from bitcoin... I think there is more to it than that. It's a lot of effort to get involved in bitcoin. Once that (time and energy) investment is made, I doubt everyone will just "walk away" completely.

citing myself as an example. I came for the "get rich quick" I stayed for the "experiment" (yes I'm up a bit, but that could all dissappear if the experiment fails)

[Its About Sharing]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick.  Nothing more, nothing less.

No, media attention alone and a quick rich scheme is a bit simplified. Are you open to discussion or is your "nothing more, nothing less" final? It is a hedge for people in dollars, Euros, etc. Get rich? How about don't let the banks take your money Cypress style (latest word is 80-90% of accounts with 100k or more). Some might get rich, but those are the few early adopters. This is a bit bigger than that.

If BTC came along in the past it wouldn't have done much because money systems were more secure (at least more hidden). People have been waking up to the printing of more money. Buy you jumped all over that and made it into a money thing. It is a people thing. It is about equality and self management. It is about controlling our rights and not using money for wars and minipulations.

This is a complex situation that is just starting in reality and for you to tell us the two things it depends on, which is more your projection, is pretty telling.

We are just starting, others currencies will follow. Other modifications, other solutions, etc.

[Coinseeker]

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick.  Nothing more, nothing less.

bold statement... I don't think anyone with a brain now will be expecting to get rich quick from bitcoin... I think there is more to it than that. It's a lot of effort to get involved in bitcoin. Once that (time and energy) investment is made, I doubt everyone will just "walk away" completely.

citing myself as an example. I came for the "get rich quick" I stayed for the "experiment" (yes I'm up a bit, but that could all dissappear if the experiment fails)

I didn't say anything about people walking away.  Although if markets tank it's almost certain you will see people move out of risky investments and into safer things like gold.

My point, while apparently not clearly spelled out, was that the recent rise in bitcoin is simply from all the media attention.  Yes, die hard bit coiners view Bitcoin as a store of wealth but the rest of real world market investors do not.  They view it as a purely speculative and very high risk investment.  Nothing more.  Simply put, people are not going to run in masses to stash money in Bitcoin because people do not trust Bitcoin.  That time may certainly come, but that time is not today.