shmadz
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
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January 22, 2014, 02:38:00 AM |
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What is going on at gox? Is gox trying to lead a rally by itself? Or is this the usual trapped fiat eruption?
Whatever is going on, it is showing up Gox's USD IOUs to be totally worthless. Not good PR for them at all! After GOX pops, how bad do you think it will get as all the exchanges start to capitulate at once? you think we might see 500 again? May not happen at all. I think it is being priced in already. Price may actually go up with a resolution to this fiasco. What do you think about an exchange stuck in the middle? virtex is still sitting at 875.... so it looks like a really good deal right now... I would like the price to go down to meet the bitstamp and btc-e exchanges, but I'm afraid to let my bitcoins go until we hear the news from New York. |
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virtualfaqs
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January 22, 2014, 02:38:29 AM |
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Willy is dead.
Mass Panic Sell in 3 - 2 - 1! |
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fonzie
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January 22, 2014, 02:39:39 AM |
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Willy is dead.
Mass Panic Sell in 3 - 2 - 1! Just got a 504 ddos message from bitcointalk, lol |
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mestar
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January 22, 2014, 02:40:51 AM |
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Willy died, and at the same time, I got 502 Bad Gateway from bitcointalk. So, the only possible conclusion is: Willy is run by bitcointalk.org.  |
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virtualfaqs
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January 22, 2014, 02:43:31 AM |
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Willy died, and at the same time, I got 502 Bad Gateway from bitcointalk. So, the only possible conclusion is: Willy is run by bitcointalk.org. Come on there's a nice succellent, delicious buy order at 182 buy order @ $963.... no slippage!  |
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TERA
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January 22, 2014, 02:44:31 AM |
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WILLLLLLLLLLSOOOONNNNNNNNN
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virtualfaqs
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January 22, 2014, 02:47:07 AM |
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Come on. Sell already. I freed Willy!  |
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MatTheCat
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January 22, 2014, 02:48:07 AM |
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People would be scared as fuck, tryin to get their money out of the remaining exchanges as long as they provide a withdrawl service, which is already happenin on Stamp as it seems.
But people withdrawing money on Bitstamp wouldn't constitute a run on Bitstamp. If I have Bitcoin on stamp and want money out, I have to sell my Bitcoin. That can only be to another party who has USD with Stamp or with any of the other exchanges that are linked into Bitstamp. If Bitstamp is run as it should be, then what the BTC price does is irrelevant to Bitstamp, as Bitstamp itself has zero exposure to Bitcoin price and profits from exchange fees, no matter what BTC price is doing. At least this rosy little ideal is how I would like to think things are. |
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TERA
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January 22, 2014, 02:51:33 AM |
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People would be scared as fuck, tryin to get their money out of the remaining exchanges as long as they provide a withdrawl service, which is already happenin on Stamp as it seems.
But people withdrawing money on Bitstamp wouldn't constitute a run on Bitstamp. If I have Bitcoin on stamp and want money out, I have to sell my Bitcoin. That can only be to another party who has USD with Stamp or with any of the other exchanges that are linked into Bitstamp. If Bitstamp is run as it should be, then what the BTC price does is irrelevant to Bitstamp, as Bitstamp itself has zero exposure to Bitcoin price and profits from exchange fees, no matter what BTC price is doing. At least this rosy little ideal is how I would like to think things are. If volume is a constant, then the income of an exchange is directly proportional to the btc price. This is because the fees collected are equal to volume times a percentage times the bitcoin price. If btc price halves, then gross income halves. If income falls below operating costs or the profit level is no longer of interest to the exchange operators then there is a problem. |
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fonzie
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January 22, 2014, 02:52:48 AM |
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People would be scared as fuck, tryin to get their money out of the remaining exchanges as long as they provide a withdrawl service, which is already happenin on Stamp as it seems.
But people withdrawing money on Bitstamp wouldn't constitute a run on Bitstamp. If I have Bitcoin on stamp and want money out, I have to sell my Bitcoin. That can only be to another party who has USD with Stamp or with any of the other exchanges that are linked into Bitstamp. If Bitstamp is run as it should be, then what the BTC price does is irrelevant to Bitstamp, as Bitstamp itself has zero exposure to Bitcoin price and profits from exchange fees, no matter what BTC price is doing. At least this rosy little ideal is how I would like to think things are. I´m sure that Bitstamp is running it´s business properly. But if MtGox goes down this might create an overall loss in confident for BTC and all of it´s exchanges even for those that acted trustworthy so far. |
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MatTheCat
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January 22, 2014, 02:55:56 AM |
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If volume is a constant, then the income of an exchange is directly proportional to the btc price. This is because the fees collected are equal to volume times a percentage times the bitcoin price. If btc price halves, then gross income halves. If income falls below operating costs or the profit level is no longer of interest to the exchange operators then there is a problem.
I get what you are saying but I don't see any Bitcoin exchange as necessarily being a high cost operation depending on inflated BTC prices for survival. If Bitstamp did just fine when BTC was $10 in the past, I see no reason why it couldnt conceivably cope with such a situation in the future, as unlikely as it may be. |
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JorgeStolfi
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January 22, 2014, 03:01:33 AM |
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Large buys at the upper end of the spread suggest people desperate to buy, rather than to sell.
Perhaps there are many MtGOX clients, with lots of USD in their accounts, who either have urgent bills to pay, or are increasingly worried that they may never get any money out. Such clients would be willing to buy BTCs at the inflated MtGOX price so that they can sell them in some other exchange. Does this make sense?
Of course there may be other explanations, including complicated manipulations, fake transactions, insider trading, etc. etc.
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JorgeStolfi
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January 22, 2014, 03:13:28 AM |
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Bitstamp did just fine when BTC was $10 in the past
I bet that they are making a lot more money now. Exchanges generally earn more when there is more USD volume. Falling prices may create a momentary surge in volume, but smaller income in the end. Bitcoin exchanges are unusual among stock/commodity markets because they basically trade only one item. Unlike NYSE or CME, their future is tightly bound to the future of that item. |
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adamstgBit
Legendary
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
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January 22, 2014, 03:26:13 AM |
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Bitstamp did just fine when BTC was $10 in the past
I bet that they are making a lot more money now. Exchanges generally earn more when there is more USD volume. Falling prices may create a momentary surge in volume, but smaller income in the end. Bitcoin exchanges are unusual among stock/commodity markets because they basically trade only one item. Unlike NYSE or CME, their future is tightly bound to the future of that item. nonsense if someone buy 1BTC at 1000$ each or 10BTC at 100$ the exchange makes the same amount of money. |
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oda.krell
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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January 22, 2014, 03:30:47 AM |
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 wow much discrepancy. Actually, yes, "much discrepancy" during the last 48 hours or so, if looked at at a slightly higher resolution than daily.   |
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proudhon
Legendary
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Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
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January 22, 2014, 03:32:23 AM |
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LOL flight from alts to MEME-COINS (ie doge) is hilarious. PPC is in a death spiral.
I got out at a good time then. I keep thinking, now that we know bitcoin can't work in the real world, as confirmed by sources, we really need to focus on the development of a new cryptocurrency that is like bitcoin, but better. And, everytime I think about how bitcoin can be significantly improved, the main thing I keep coming back to is its volatility and that its supply needs to be controlled by me. |
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JorgeStolfi
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January 22, 2014, 03:33:12 AM |
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if someone buy 1BTC at 1000$ each or 10BTC at 100$ the exchange makes the same amount of money.
That is what I meant for "more USD volume". Bitstamp's USD volume today seems to be at least 5x what it was in Oct/2013. |
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vphen
Member
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Activity: 76
Merit: 10
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January 22, 2014, 03:33:51 AM |
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Did Willy went bed?
I have been waiting for her for 20 minutes
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Walsoraj
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January 22, 2014, 03:38:08 AM |
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LOL flight from alts to MEME-COINS (ie doge) is hilarious. PPC is in a death spiral.
I got out at a good time then. I keep thinking, now that we know bitcoin can't work in the real world, as confirmed by sources, we really need to focus on the development of a new cryptocurrency that is like bitcoin, but better. And, everytime I think about how bitcoin can be significantly improved, the main thing I keep coming back to is its volatility and that its supply needs to be controlled by me. Do you have an official, expert stance on Ripple? |
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adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
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January 22, 2014, 03:38:28 AM |
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LOL flight from alts to MEME-COINS (ie doge) is hilarious. PPC is in a death spiral.
I got out at a good time then. I keep thinking, now that we know bitcoin can't work in the real world, as confirmed by sources, we really need to focus on the development of a new cryptocurrency that is like bitcoin, but better. And, everytime I think about how bitcoin can be significantly improved, the main thing I keep coming back to is its volatility and that its supply needs to be controlled by me. proudhon coin fiat finally a fiat that makes sence, sign me up |
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