Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

We need lots of buy-hold-buy-mores, and lots of successful daytraders.

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[aminorex]

Wait a minute... a speculator that is wrong all the time, amplifies the ups and downs. A speculator that correctly foresees the highs and the lows and take corresponding action, will dampen the swings. If all speculators were really good, the swings would be wiped out. You could also say that a bad speculator is good for the good speculator. A buyer and holder (or a holder and buyer...) dampens the grand shock of implementing the whole thing.

A "speculator" exercising a reversion strategy will tend to dampen price swings.  A *speculator* exercising a momentum strategy will tend to force price swings.

[mellowyellow]

https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/petition-to-remove-mark-karpeles-from-the-board-of-the-bitcoin-foundation

[kkaspar]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If everyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

But speculators who chant Choo Choo and are delusional about the future contribute more?
For instance how do you contribute to bitcoin? or how does windjc?

[BitThink]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

So why do you buy Bitcoin, and not just donate to Bitcoin related start ups, if it´s not about making profit?

I buy bitcoin because I believe it have a chance to be a reliable store of value, so that I can hedge the risk of inflation. Moreover, I also want to be rich, but prefer to be rich because bitcoin is more successful, not because someone unfortunately buy BTC from me at a large loss.

[aminorex]

There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks.

Now this analysis I can deal with.  In fact, you've described the reason why I have some fiat in reserve.  There is a substantial likelihood of an impending final capitulation.

[aminorex]

https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/petition-to-remove-mark-karpeles-from-the-board-of-the-bitcoin-foundation

How about Vessenes?  I mean, has there ever been so much fail at the same table?

[traderCJ]

Wait a minute... a speculator that is wrong all the time, amplifies the ups and downs. A speculator that correctly foresees the highs and the lows and take corresponding action, will dampen the swings. If all speculators were really good, the swings would be wiped out. You could also say that a bad speculator is good for the good speculator. A buyer and holder (or a holder and buyer...) dampens the grand shock of implementing the whole thing.

Derivatives stabilize the underlying.  Speculation is both good and unavoidable.  There is a contingent of people who will support Bitcoin no matter what.  As a result, they naturally clash with speculators from time to time.  This happens in all markets.  Believers vs speculators.  Moving on ..

[fonzie]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

So why do you buy Bitcoin, and not just donate to Bitcoin related start ups, if it´s not about making profit?

I buy bitcoin because I believe it have a chance to be a reliable store of value, so that I can hedge the risk of inflation. Moreover, I also want to be rich, but prefer to be rich because bitcoin is more successful, not because someone unfortunately buy BTC from me at a large loss.

Sounds fair

[kkaspar]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

So why do you buy Bitcoin, and not just donate to Bitcoin related start ups, if it´s not about making profit?

I buy bitcoin because I believe it have a chance to be a reliable store of value, so that I can hedge the risk of inflation. Moreover, I also want to be rich, but prefer to be rich because bitcoin is more successful, not because someone unfortunately buy BTC from me at a large loss.

If you buy bitcoins to store value, then you probably don't know much about money.
Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation, so trusting bitcoin to hold your wealth is giving your money to the bitcoin hodlers and trust that they won't cash out. That is naive as an investment and a naive way to deal with wealth.
If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter. Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.

[aminorex]

For instance how do you contribute to bitcoin?

I contribute by evangelism, by ownership, by mining, by speculation, by philanthropy, by attempting to be a responsible member of the community.  I may one day contribute code, or participate in an infrastructure business, but for now I am too busy with my day job and other hobbies.

[Erdogan]

Wait a minute... a speculator that is wrong all the time, amplifies the ups and downs. A speculator that correctly foresees the highs and the lows and take corresponding action, will dampen the swings. If all speculators were really good, the swings would be wiped out. You could also say that a bad speculator is good for the good speculator. A buyer and holder (or a holder and buyer...) dampens the grand shock of implementing the whole thing.

A "speculator" exercising a reversion strategy will tend to dampen price swings.  A *speculator* exercising a momentum strategy will tend to force price swings.

You could be right that the momentum strategy could initially force price swings, but I still think that if successful, the net effect will be dampening. To be succesful, he will overall necessarily have to buy low and sell high. Please explain if not correct.

[BitThink]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If everyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

But speculators who chant Choo Choo and are delusional about the future contribute more?
For instance how do you contribute to bitcoin? or how does windjc?

Don't take me wrong, I am not saying that everyone should contribute to BTC or stop speculating. I am just saying that BTC is not a pure zero sum game for speculators. Therefore, its destiny is not determined by speculators.

Bitcoin has a great potential to grow up due to a lot of those who contribute to the codes and create businesses on it. Those are the one who really determines the future of the bitcoin, not us (no matter we are bulls or bears here).

[delphic]

I had an epiphany at lunch. Gox will succeed in spite of all the crap they are pulling.  Why do I think this?  Because in a very weird way Gox has created the perfect gambling web site.  People see the undervalued or overvalued price and with the same rush of adrenalin they get as a "fun" trip to Vegas, they throw their money in with hopes to take advantage of the "game" even if they may very well lose everything.  

I thought about having an epiphany at lunchtime too, but local deli was out of them.

Sorry for the incorrect grammar.

C'mon.  Give a girl a break.  I am from California.  You guys are lucky I am not saying things like "I was totally stoked that during lunch I had this crazy like epiphany dude!"

I am doing my best here.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I fail to see the error in "I had an epiphany at lunch." It's a bit of a stretch, since epiphany implies that something mundane led you to your flash of enlightenment (think: Dr. House), but as far as I know it is not out-and-out incorrect.

I don't fault Bitchicks grammar, I was just feigning ignorance and imagining that an epiphany was edible.

Delphic, your impressive poetry yesterday has shown a light on my inferior writing abilities.  I say that with utmost sincerity, BTW.

Here is a recap for those that missed it:

Quote from: delphic on February 16, 2014, 02:32:05 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 16, 2014, 01:10:33 PM
Startled at the stillness broken, by a crash so rudely woken,
"Doubtless", said I, "news should matter of the overstock and stores;
call upon a Wall Street master, stop the unmerciful disaster,
it's falling fast and falling faster..." till the charts one burden bore,
"Monday morrow he will fail us... as he has failed us before."
And withdrawals? "Nevermore."

And the Karpeles, never flitting, still is sitting, still is sitting
On the blue ball of plastic just above the wooden floor;
And his eyes have all the seeming of a demon's that is dreaming,
And the lamp-light o'er him streaming throws his bitcoins on the floor;
And my coins from out that shadow that lies floating on the floor
Shall be lifted--nevermore!

Thank you, though E A Poe should get a bit of the credit (say, 98%)

[aminorex]

If you buy bitcoins to store value, then you probably don't know much about money.

Or, he thinks long-term.

Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation

Definitely not true.  Bitcoin adds a great deal of economic value.

If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter.

"Rare-earth" is a bit of a misnomer.  They aren't actually all that rare.  And the supply-demand equation fluctuates a great deal.  I would definitely consider bitcoin to be a much safer investment than rare-earth commodities, which are not so easy to physically hold, by the way. There may be some rare-earth supply-chain enterprises which are fairly safe investments, but they are unlikely to qualify as stores of value, or to provide such speculative upside as bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.

A very large group of mostly known people whose interests are fairly predictably aligned with my own.

[JorgeStolfi]

https://www.change.org/en-GB/petitions/petition-to-remove-mark-karpeles-from-the-board-of-the-bitcoin-foundation

I don't think that the Bitcoin Foundation can or should be salvaged.  Since the other board members haven't given any sign that they are displeased with Mark's actions at MtGOX, one cannot assume that they are better than him.  

Besides, it is not clear whose interests the Foundation is supposed to represent: small investors, big investors, traders, exchange owners, developers, or people who just want bitcoin to be used for commerce?

Methinks that bitcoin owners should create an independent Bitcoin Investors Association, supported by fixed low fees and accepting no donations (so that it does not become a Bitcoin Whales Association).  Its first priority should be to write a set of standards for exchanges (including transparent accounting), audit them, and certify them for compliance.

[Erdogan]

We need lots of buy-hold-buy-mores, and lots of successful daytraders.

... and we need the bad daytraders to feed the good daytraders, and we need the ignorant nay-sayers to slow down the rise, so the visionary late-comers have a chance.  

[BitThink]

No offend, but a speculater like you contributes nothing to bitcoin, no matter you win or lose money. Therefore, your interest on BTC really matters no so much. If anyone interested in bitcoin is just want to buy low and sell high, then BTC better to die now.

So why do you buy Bitcoin, and not just donate to Bitcoin related start ups, if it´s not about making profit?

I buy bitcoin because I believe it have a chance to be a reliable store of value, so that I can hedge the risk of inflation. Moreover, I also want to be rich, but prefer to be rich because bitcoin is more successful, not because someone unfortunately buy BTC from me at a large loss.

If you buy bitcoins to store value, then you probably don't know much about money.
Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation, so trusting bitcoin to hold your wealth is giving your money to the bitcoin hodlers and trust that they won't cash out. That is naive as an investment and a naive way to deal with wealth.
If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter. Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.

I think you have confused value with price. The price of bitcoin now is manipulated by a few people with the help of the exchanges. The value of Bitcoin, however, lies in that it's the only scheme which provides a reliable accountant system without requiring trust on any centralized authority, shared all over the world, and backed up by a huge computing power.

You can speculate on its price as much as you want, but the value of bitcoin is much more than that. How it will change the world is still largely unknown and we just see the tip of the iceberg. That's again why I said the speculators really do not matter to the future of bitcoin.

[Walsoraj]

I spy panic on the horizon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation