Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Yololintian]

What does everyone think is the cause for the massive continuous dump of btc on gox? I think it is just someone or a few ppl with tens of thousands of coins selling them for whatever reason, but I hear that some people think its manipulation and an entity is selling to itself to drive the price down. I see no way the latter case can actually be effective other than losing a major percentage of that entity's total goxbux/goxcoins. Sure, driving the price down will cause some panic selling (which in this scenario the manipulator tries to pick these panic-sold coins up), especially in the first stages of the detachment of gox prices to everywhere else, but when the price keeps going down and down on gox but not anywhere else, far less people are going to be selling their goxcoins in panic. The mega whale seller also cut down significant support all through 600s to 200s, and it will not be possible for it to buy back even 30% of those coins for the same price, judging by the orderbook ask depth. On the other hand, it seems as if most of the current supply of goxbux is dwindling under the great supply of btc the megawhale is dumping onto gox. To me this doesn't seem like manipulation but a huge increase in supply of btc if gox ever enables withdrawals, which through arbitrage will bring the prices much lower on other exchanges.
Also, does anyone have any other plausible justifications of the constant selling from the mega-whale?

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[JorgeStolfi]

It is 8 pm already in China and volume is very low, about 2 kBTC/h.  Looks like the price is going to stay where it is, for the rest of the day.

However, last time they had such low volume was on feb/09.  Could this be just the quiet before the storm, again?

[cee-euros]

bitstamp wall, what??

[billyjoeallen]

What does everyone think is the cause for the massive continuous dump of btc on gox? I think it is just someone or a few ppl with tens of thousands of coins selling them for whatever reason, but I hear that some people think its manipulation and an entity is selling to itself to drive the price down. I see no way the latter case can actually be effective other than losing a major percentage of that entity's total goxbux/goxcoins. Sure, driving the price down will cause some panic selling (which in this scenario the manipulator tries to pick these panic-sold coins up), especially in the first stages of the detachment of gox prices to everywhere else, but when the price keeps going down and down on gox but not anywhere else, far less people are going to be selling their goxcoins in panic. The mega whale seller also cut down significant support all through 600s to 200s, and it will not be possible for it to buy back even 30% of those coins for the same price, judging by the orderbook ask depth. On the other hand, it seems as if most of the current supply of goxbux is dwindling under the great supply of btc the megawhale is dumping onto gox. To me this doesn't seem like manipulation but a huge increase in supply of btc if gox ever enables withdrawals, which through arbitrage will bring the prices much lower on other exchanges.
Also, does anyone have any other plausible justifications of the constant selling from the mega-whale?

Read the thread. This question has been asked no less that 50 times on this thread alone with hundreds of responses. and many many more times elsewhere.

[HairyMaclairy]

@ Yolintian:  it's bait to get people to deposit fiat on Gox.

[Luno]

What does everyone think is the cause for the massive continuous dump of btc on gox? I think it is just someone or a few ppl with tens of thousands of coins selling them for whatever reason, but I hear that some people think its manipulation and an entity is selling to itself to drive the price down. I see no way the latter case can actually be effective other than losing a major percentage of that entity's total goxbux/goxcoins. Sure, driving the price down will cause some panic selling (which in this scenario the manipulator tries to pick these panic-sold coins up), especially in the first stages of the detachment of gox prices to everywhere else, but when the price keeps going down and down on gox but not anywhere else, far less people are going to be selling their goxcoins in panic. The mega whale seller also cut down significant support all through 600s to 200s, and it will not be possible for it to buy back even 30% of those coins for the same price, judging by the orderbook ask depth. On the other hand, it seems as if most of the current supply of goxbux is dwindling under the great supply of btc the megawhale is dumping onto gox. To me this doesn't seem like manipulation but a huge increase in supply of btc if gox ever enables withdrawals, which through arbitrage will bring the prices much lower on other exchanges.
Also, does anyone have any other plausible justifications of the constant selling from the mega-whale?

Interesting question. The around 300$ GOX price is maintained not to jump all over the place. Walls and volume is to low to give any natural price stability.  What are they waiting for? Gox on it's own could try to lure fiat holders in to reduce the $$ they owe (claims in Bitcoins might be easier to dismiss in court?), or as said elsewhere, make some suckers deposit some cash?.

But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX, maybe for personal reasons, but also for Bitcoins image! If the price crashes because of the malability hack, It will look as Bitcoin itself has been compromised and people distrust the currency itself and not just an exchange.

It looks rigged sure. But calm is good right now from a PR perspective.

[JorgeStolfi]

Just because I wrote that...   

[cee-euros]

watch bitstamp!

[billyjoeallen]

WTF just happened on stamp??? somebody snagged my cheap coins!

[dreamspark]

what a mad buy

[Ivanhoe]

481 sell, one minute later 467 buy

[cee-euros]

WTF just happened on stamp??? somebody snagged my cheap coins!

Could have sold for 638 15 seconds later, never a dull moment.

[mzp]

ALAAAAARM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVBPGZEVRH0

[cee-euros]

481 sell, one minute later 467 buy

15 minute candle looks hillarious

[JorgeStolfi]

But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX

That is easier to explain: MtGOX is a roach motel -- what goes in presently cannot get out, and perhaps never will.  Except for naive investors who sell coins at other exchanges and sink their money into MtGOX, there is no communication between that market and all the others (which appear to be fairly well connected by arbitragers).

As others have pointed out, what the charts show for MtGox is trade of virtual "goxBTC" for virtual "goxUSD", that may be convertible one day to actual BTC and actual USD, at some unknown "exchange rate" between 1 and 0 (inclusive).

[magicmexican]

Stamp leading the dumps this time?

[billyjoeallen]

WTF just happened on stamp??? somebody snagged my cheap coins!

Could have sold for 638 15 seconds later, never a dull moment.

nah. I'd get chewed up on fees trading swings that small. I'm waiting for sub $600 to reload. The problem is, if too many others are doing the same, I might not get the chance.

[Yololintian]

What does everyone think is the cause for the massive continuous dump of btc on gox? I think it is just someone or a few ppl with tens of thousands of coins selling them for whatever reason, but I hear that some people think its manipulation and an entity is selling to itself to drive the price down. I see no way the latter case can actually be effective other than losing a major percentage of that entity's total goxbux/goxcoins. Sure, driving the price down will cause some panic selling (which in this scenario the manipulator tries to pick these panic-sold coins up), especially in the first stages of the detachment of gox prices to everywhere else, but when the price keeps going down and down on gox but not anywhere else, far less people are going to be selling their goxcoins in panic. The mega whale seller also cut down significant support all through 600s to 200s, and it will not be possible for it to buy back even 30% of those coins for the same price, judging by the orderbook ask depth. On the other hand, it seems as if most of the current supply of goxbux is dwindling under the great supply of btc the megawhale is dumping onto gox. To me this doesn't seem like manipulation but a huge increase in supply of btc if gox ever enables withdrawals, which through arbitrage will bring the prices much lower on other exchanges.
Also, does anyone have any other plausible justifications of the constant selling from the mega-whale?

Interesting question. The around 300$ GOX price is maintained not to jump all over the place. Walls and volume is to low to give any natural price stability.  What are they waiting for? Gox on it's own could try to lure fiat holders in to reduce the $$ they owe (claims in Bitcoins might be easier to dismiss in court?), or as said elsewhere, make some suckers deposit some cash?.

But that still doesn't explain why the other exchanges are calm too. I think that their is a "gentlemen’s agreement" between exchanges not to take advantage on GOX, maybe for personal reasons, but also for Bitcoins image! If the price crashes because of the malability hack, It will look as Bitcoin itself has been compromised and people distrust the currency itself and not just an exchange.

It looks rigged sure. But calm is good right now from a PR perspective.

I don't think there is any "gentlemen's agreement" in a market made up by a significant amount of speculators. Many people don't care that much about bitcoin's image and are here to make money; if they think the price is going to go down, they will sell or short without concern for Bitcoin's public image. I think its rather because they just don't believe what they are seeing, and are very suspicious and cautious of the situation at mtgox.

[Shak]

Stamp leading the dumps this time?

stamp is been pushed down by at least 2 self-replenishing "walls" (all in all 150 btc). as soon they get bitten, they dissapear for a few seconds to get filled up to 50 or 100 again

[dreamspark]

Gotta love the sheep. Sold the peak of 660 yesterday as the news from gox wasn't great but the market was always going to have a little rally. Testing the bottom around 550ish again and Im back in and bullish.