Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[delphic]

I spy panic on the horizon.

Nah, it's an epiphany and it's heading your way.

[1714667302]

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[1714667302]

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[JorgeStolfi]

Poetry to fill a Dull Chart Moment:

  Naive you are
  if you believe
  life favours those
  who aren't naive.

       --Piet Hein

[aminorex]

We need lots of buy-hold-buy-mores, and lots of successful daytraders.

... and we need the bad daytraders to feed the good daytraders, and we need the ignorant nay-sayers to slow down the rise, so the visionary late-comers have a chance.  

for such a nice person you sure make a terrible president of turkey.

[delphic]

Poetry to fill a Dull Chart Moment:

  Naive you are
  if you believe
  life favours those
  who aren't naive.

       --Piet Hein

Anyone fancy a go at a MtGox/Karpeles haiku?

[aminorex]

we just see the tip of the iceberg.

Just the tip? Promise?

[empowering]

we just see the tip of the iceberg.

Just the tip? Promise?

she said

[windjc]

Would you like a nice Cheddar to go with that whine?

To my point. You bought in October/November. You are new to bitcoin. No one is trying to convince you that we are going to the moon tomorrow. Read my posts. Over and over and over again I state we are in a bear market and we might hit the 200 sma average on Stamp before reversing. That average is at $450+ today and in about 4-5 weeks it will be at around $550.  So we are well on our way to full correction, in my opinion.

There. You happy now?

Btw, China doesn't matter. You think that was Chinese money going into Bistamp and Gox? It was money from all over the world.

It doesn't mater how new I am. Before 2013 bitcoin was just play money for buying drugs and the entire market system revolved around that utility. Right now bitcoin is at the doorstep in becoming a legal financial tool. This moment is crucial, if it succeeds it will rise much higher, but if it fails, then it won't get another chance. So, I don't really care about your bitcoin experience pre-2013. I just care if bitcoin will get past that doorstep or not. And currently it seems like it is slowly falling back.
And based on what, do you see that the price is actually rising not just preparing another deeper drop?
All I can see is relatively strong bottom resistance and very little lift. But without lift the bottom resistance is weakening and we can see this through most of January. There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks.

This is precisely why you are wrong. You think nothing matters before you arrived on the scene. Bitcoin isn't at a make or break point. That is only your immature (time reference) view point.  Bitcoin is still in its infancy. It can go to $100 and still be worth $100k one day.

You think the hundreds of millions of VC developing the current eco-system cares whether bitcoin is $100 or $1200 right now? Fuck no. They are innovating for the future. You think wall street cares? Nope. Except that $100 is more attractive than $1000. Too bad its not going back to $100. Its going, maybe to the 200 SMA and that is all. So quit worrying so much and acting like this hasn't all happened before. Its happened over and over and over. History absolutely makes you wise.

[fonzie]

Will Gox follow?   I doubt

http://www.coindesk.com/pay-back-silk-road-2-0/

[kkaspar]

Or, he thinks long-term.

The more long-term you predict bitcoin, the more you gamble. There are so many real factors that rise probability, that in the coming years, bitcoin will die. Only thing special about bitcoin is that it was the first popular outlet of an very good idea. It's like believing in the 80s that Apple will always dominate the personal computer market, because it was the first to succeed with Macintosh. You can't hold onto this idea alone. Other can better that idea or just market that idea better with their products.

Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation
- Definitely not true.  Bitcoin adds a great deal of economic value.

Sadly it is. Bitcoin has very little economic value, the idea has a lot of potential for value, but bitcoin itself is an economic gimmick. Mainly because of the overly simplified proof-of-work system to introduce new coins. Because of that, bitcoin will never be a stand-alone currency and it needs fiat to give it value.
Right now, with adopting bitcoin payments at your shop has no value in financial efficiency. You will only gain the trouble in converting your money. Only reason why some companies decide to accept bitcoin payment, is for marketing reasons. Starting to accept bitcoin will get you lot's of free press and it will also get you some new loyar customers among those who are loyal to bitcoin. It will make your financial dealings less efficent, not more.

If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter.

-"Rare-earth" is a bit of a misnomer.  They aren't actually all that rare.  And the supply-demand equation fluctuates a great deal.  I would definitely consider bitcoin to be a much safer investment than rare-earth commodities, which are not so easy to physically hold, by the way. There may be some rare-earth supply-chain enterprises which are fairly safe investments, but they are unlikely to qualify as stores of value, or to provide such speculative upside as bitcoin.

With Rare-earth metals, it's not hard to find geographical places from where to extract the ore, but it will be difficult to find places that let mining and processing with this environmental impact to happen on their soil. And also to consider the growing demand, I think that picking the right element is the best store of value investment that one can currently do.

Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.
- A very large group of mostly known people whose interests are fairly predictably aligned with my own.

There are about 12,37mil bitcoins in circulation. Can you tell me the names of the known people who own 6mil bitcoins together? or even 2mil? or 1mil?
Last time I remember that some big bitcoin holder came into public with his coins was when Winklevosses declared that they have about 1% of total bitcoin circulation. Can you please give me other names that have declared how big their stake is in bitcoin, so I can see on who are these people who I am supposed to trust then?

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !
  EXCHANGE   !  02/09 !  02/10 !  02/11 !  02/12 !  02/13 !  02/14 !  02/15 !  02/16 !  02/17 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  15.06 |  71.86 |  40.06 |  15.51 |  28.15 |  63.38 |  20.76 |  26.40 |  19.90 | USD
  BitFinEx   |  12.07 |  41.98 |  39.54 |  12.85 |  17.17 |  53.68 |  10.83 |  16.75 |  15.69 | USD
  BTC-e      |  12.51 |  47.04 |  28.64 |   9.97 |  18.53 |  52.18 |   9.16 |  21.75 |  15.07 | USD,EUR,RUR
  Kraken     |   0.45 |   1.45 |   1.11 |   0.58 |   0.93 |   1.79 |   0.41 |   0.91 |   0.89 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.47 |   1.54 |   0.67 |   0.51 |   0.78 |   1.63 |   0.22 |   0.57 |   0.57 | EUR
  CaVirtEx   |   0.23 |   0.77 |   0.53 |   0.29 |   0.41 |   1.16 |   0.15 |   0.15 |   0.15 | CAD
  CampBX     |   0.24 |   0.37 |   0.11 |   0.10 |   0.21 |   0.41 |   0.05 |   0.07 |   0.28 | USD

  SUBTOTAL   |  41.03 | 165.01 | 110.66 |  39.81 |  66.18 | 174.23 |  41.58 |  66.60 |  52.55 |

  Huobi      |  64.08 | 134.09 | 120.08 | 131.86 |  82.39 | 236.27 | 122.80 | 110.57 | 130.41 | CNY
  OKCoin     |  34.63 |  70.49 |  64.22 |  60.79 |  62.49 | 147.26 |  51.45 |  63.63 |  63.05 | CNY
  BTC-China  |   5.75 |  18.23 |  11.17 |  11.01 |   8.02 |  24.87 |   7.55 |   9.08 |   7.86 | CNY
  Bter       |   0.33 |   0.85 |   0.76 |   0.69 |   0.65 |   1.54 |   0.74 |   0.56 |   0.48 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   | 104.79 | 223.66 | 196.23 | 204.35 | 153.55 | 409.94 | 182.54 | 183.84 | 201.80 |

  MtGOX      |  23.48 |  50.07 |  18.70 |  25.21 |  33.85 |  79.56 |  60.15 | 104.46 |  65.69 | USD,EUR,GBP,AUD,JPY

  TOTAL      | 169.30 | 438.74 | 325.59 | 269.37 | 253.58 | 663.73 | 284.27 | 354.90 | 320.04 |



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

The exchange Bter was added to Bitcoinwisdom's menu on 2014-02-15; its volumes for 02/07 to 02/14 have been added
retroactively to the table.

Coinbase is said to use Bitstamp for currency conversion.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

NOTE: A few days ago, MtGOX has suspended withdrawals of Bitcoins and national currencies.  Therefore it is essentially isolated from other markets, and its price is completely out of the norm.  The exceptional trade volumes above may be meaningless.

[aminorex]

History absolutely makes you wise.

Perhaps.  At least it certainly makes you jaded.  I am very disappointed with the lackadaisical attitude towards criminal attacks on bitcoin which I see manifested in long-term traders and holders alike.  Apathy is never healthy or empowering to a constituency, and it is precisely crap like that which gives governments the excuse they want to infringe upon, and potentially eviscerate, the freedom to transact.

[windjc]

Or, he thinks long-term.

The more long-term you predict bitcoin, the more you gamble. There are so many real factors that rise probability, that in the coming years, bitcoin will die. Only thing special about bitcoin is that it was the first popular outlet of an very good idea. It's like believing in the 80s that Apple will always dominate the personal computer market, because it was the first to succeed with Macintosh. You can't hold onto this idea alone. Other can better that idea or just market that idea better with their products.

Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation
- Definitely not true.  Bitcoin adds a great deal of economic value.

Sadly it is. Bitcoin has very little economic value, the idea has a lot of potential for value, but bitcoin itself is an economic gimmick. Mainly because of the overly simplified proof-of-work system to introduce new coins. Because of that, bitcoin will never be a stand-alone currency and it needs fiat to give it value.
Right now, with adopting bitcoin payments at your shop has no value in financial efficiency. You will only gain the trouble in converting your money. Only reason why some companies decide to accept bitcoin payment, is for marketing reasons. Starting to accept bitcoin will get you lot's of free press and it will also get you some new loyar customers among those who are loyal to bitcoin. It won't make your financial dealings less efficent, not more.

If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter.

-"Rare-earth" is a bit of a misnomer.  They aren't actually all that rare.  And the supply-demand equation fluctuates a great deal.  I would definitely consider bitcoin to be a much safer investment than rare-earth commodities, which are not so easy to physically hold, by the way. There may be some rare-earth supply-chain enterprises which are fairly safe investments, but they are unlikely to qualify as stores of value, or to provide such speculative upside as bitcoin.

With Rare-earth metals, it's not hard to find geographical places from where to extract the ore, but it will be difficult to find places that let mining and processing with this environmental impact to happen on their soil. And also to consider the growing demand, I think that picking the right element is the best store of value investment that one can currently do.

Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.
- A very large group of mostly known people whose interests are fairly predictably aligned with my own.

There are about 12,37mil bitcoins in circulation. Can you tell me the names of the known people who own 6mil bitcoins together? or even 2mil? or 1mil?
Last time I remember that some big bitcoin holder came into public with his coins was when Winklevosses declared that they have about 1% of total bitcoin circulation. Can you please give me other names that have declared how big their stake is in bitcoin, so I can see on who are these people who I am supposed to trust then?

So, we get it. You are a trader. You don't believe in the fundamentals of the technology. You are just here to make money trading. Ok. Great. Take your profits and get some more precious rocks. Bye.

[fonzie]

In case you haven´t noticed this is the "SPECULATION" sub-forum. It´s about trading here.
Not speculating about its philosophy....

[JorgeStolfi]

Can you tell me the names of the known people who own 6mil bitcoins together? or even 2mil? or 1mil?

Net says that Satoshi owns 1 M pre-mined BTC, perhaps other "founding fathers" too?  Although of course they are not "known people".

[kkaspar]

This is precisely why you are wrong. You think nothing matters before you arrived on the scene. Bitcoin isn't at a make or break point. That is only your immature (time reference) view point.  Bitcoin is still in its infancy. It can go to $100 and still be worth $100k one day.

You think the hundreds of millions of VC developing the current eco-system cares whether bitcoin is $100 or $1200 right now? Fuck no. They are innovating for the future. You think wall street cares? Nope. Except that $100 is more attractive than $1000. Too bad its not going back to $100. Its going, maybe to the 200 SMA and that is all. So quit worrying so much and acting like this hasn't all happened before. Its happened over and over and over. History absolutely makes you wise.

I didn't invest before, because bitcoin didn't mater then. I knew about it and I even visited your little forum, but I had no interesting in being involved in an gambling platform that is supported only by drug trade.
Can you argue against it, like it had any other utility then buying drugs online? Do you argue against it that the tor drug market was the only thing that gave value to bitcoin then?
Bitcoin only became interesting to me when I saw a chance that it could also be more. During the last period the chances of this happening are getting smaller.

I also see the simple truth that bitcoin won't be able to create any price stability with this overly simplified proof-of-work mining system for creating new coins. That will be the final stop where bitcoin won't be able to go further.
People with basic financial knowledge can see that bitcoin isn't the answer, but it just propagated the idea that will lead to an answer. I just hope that bitcoin still has couple of years of hype left in it, so there will be better cryptos, that would make financial sense, and that could possibly develop into a stand-alone currency. Then the end of bitcoin won't be the end of this idea of privatized monetary systems, but value will flow from bitcoin into another.

Only lazy and uneducated hodlers believe that they can just buy, wait some years and become millionaires by just buying early. World doesn't work like that.
It's funny how these people present themselves like fighters for liberty and how they promote bitcoin because it's the right thing to do. What they are really doing is hoping that there will be an re-distribution of wealth and they can be the new ruling class in economy, all while doing no work and having no practical skills or education to contribute to society.

[bassclef]

Can you tell me the names of the known people who own 6mil bitcoins together? or even 2mil? or 1mil?

Net says that Satoshi owns 1 M pre-mined BTC, perhaps other "founding fathers" too?  Although of course they are not "known people".

Bitcoins are pre-mined now, Mr Stanford educated computer scientist? Get thee to the developer forum, go!

[KeyserSoze]

Its a weird one isn't it....you used to stoke fires or maybe engines, perhaps idiomatically you cold stoke an argument...but the word needed an object.  Used as adjectively it is a bit strange.

(I imagine the contemporary response to this is "whatever")

"In the parlance of our times" she used it correctly, dude, at least as far as I've heard it. I seem to recall it's in the movie Valley Girl. Also some surfer acquaintances of mine used it in college often.

My offhand etymology guess on the surfer/valley girl usage would be: I'm excited -> I'm all fired up -> I'm stoked.
Looking online it appears to have entered surfer slang @1963.

[empowering]

Do not let us keep you..  must be plenty to do..

[kkaspar]

So, we get it. You are a trader. You don't believe in the fundamentals of the technology. You are just here to make money trading. Ok. Great. Take your profits and get some more precious rocks. Bye.

I will say this again: screw you, you delusional prick!
When i'm saying that bitcoin isn't the answer because it's too simplistic, then it doesn't mean that I don't believe in the fundamentals of technology. I just understand macroeconomics and finance better then you, that bitcoin won't be able to offer price stability and without price stability it won't ever be a quality currency.

I believe that this idea that bitcoin created will soon bring forward a new wave of information technology based currencies, that already have an integrated market regulation system and a more proper system for creating new units.
When someone said that Macintosh won't conquer the world as a personal use computer, that there will be competition that will better the idea, then it doesn't mean that he doesn't believe in fundamentals of technology!

[empowering]

Did you forget your "how to not behave like a little child" pills today?