Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Good evening. CCMF?

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[BitChick]

Wow.  Country music stars are starting to sing about Bitcoin.  That is cool!  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEQ2nPSL5-0
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20140217/BUSINESS04/302170061?nclick_check=1

“Ode To Satoshi”
Well Satoshi Nakamoto that's a name I love to say
And we don't know much about him, but he came to save the day
When he wrote about the way things are
and the way things ought to be
He gave us all a protocol this world had never seen
Oh Bitcoin as you're going into the old Blockchain
Oh Bitcoin I know you're going to reign, gonna reign
Till everybody knows, everybody knows,
till everybody knows your name
Down the road it will be told about the Death of Old MtGox
About traitors trading alter coins and minors mining blocks
But them good old boys back in Illinois
and on down through Tennessee
See they don't care to be a millionaire,
they're just wanting to be free
Oh Bitcoin as you're going into the old Blockchain
Oh Bitcoin I know you're going to reign, gonna reign
Till everybody knows, everybody knows,
till everybody knows your name
From the ghettos of Calcutta to the halls of Parliament
While the bankers count Our money out for every government
Old Bitcoin flies on through the skies of Virtuality
A promise to deliver us from age old Tyranny
Oh Bitcoin as you're going into the old Blockchain
Oh Bitcoin I know you're going to reign, gonna reign
Till everybody knows, everybody knows,
till everybody knows your name
Till everybody knows, everybody knows,
till everybody knows your
"Give me some Exposure"
Everybody knows your name
Oh Lord pass me some more
Oh Lord before I have to go
Oh Lord pass me some more
Oh Lord . . . before I have to . . .go . . .

[aminorex]

I just did a little math on the blockchain, and came up with a rough January BTC velocity of 4 (compare USD 1.5, a historic low), and an implied fundamental value qua currency of USD 640.  I find it intriguing that the current stamp price is actually below the fundamental value, and I consider this an indicator of sentiment, i.e. I interpret this as indicating unusually negative sentiment.

[solex]

Good evening. CCMF?

Yes, been watching that 3-day chart too. Looked promising until the last candle closed and now shows further weakness. The Ghost of Gox is spooking the markets. Need an exorcism!

[hamiltino]

People are always talking about trolls and how they are doing it on purpose. But what you define as a troll is simply a person with a view against the majority which automatically puts him in the troll category. Isn't this another form of dictatorship where anyone with an opinion against the majority, no matter how wrong, right or emotionally driven his opinion is, gets completely dismissed without any logical arguments against his claims but just simply labled a troll like an automatic knee jerk reaction.  

There is a difference between "I think bitcoin is going down, here is my objective analysis" and "OMFG SELL SELL SELL BITCOIN IS DEAD!" If you say the first one, and I disagree with you, I will calmly explain why. I will dismiss the second one as ridiculous and ignore it.

Notice that the same can be said for bull trolls, it's just that they get less heat because they're saying what most on here want to hear.

Well the more you acknowledge someone is a troll the more they will want to "troll you". Its the law of the ego.

[empowering]

Well we agree all but on the one point then... (in bold)

With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had... more regulatory clarity than it has ever had around the globe.. more investment and more users than it has ever had... and also it is still standing..  these are all very good signs.... the money is invested and is seeding and fruiting now already, the regulations are being written, the ecosystem built, the users and belivers are all talking and eventually even their grans are going to have Bitcoin walllets if they want them or not (in my family anyway)  so it is those wheels in motion as we speak, right now that money, those devs, that work, the plans, the work of lawsky and co on the regs, all of these things are occuring right now.. as I type. So it is that coupled with an understanding of the power of network effect, coupled with the fact that I do not see Mt Gox taking down Bitcoin, I do not see the malleability issue doing so either, I do not see it being banned, so in the mid term I cannot see any reason wy it would go down in price either.. thats my point...   I  think that the problems will get less as the ecosystem develops which it is doing so, and as soon as Lawsky & Co do their thing, and the legal picture is clear , then the projects will spring up everywhere (some are already in dev now ,and some will start once regs are clearer) and the ecosystem will spring up super quick, and some of the big players that spring up next, will be in the public domain for decades.. These developments are happening right now  they are the foundations... they have been poured, and they are now just getting ready to set.

Do you consider that last year the price at $1100+ was unstable and to high, and that we have just had "bitcoin going lower"  
Else, what is your ideal figure I wonder? and why ?

With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had...

Please don't make these long and boring speeches on how strong you think that the market is. I can see how "strong" the market is by looking at how "well" it preforms. Only time when the price has any momentum to go upwards is right after an major fall. I don't work in a way that "encouraging words about the strength of bitcoin will keep my faith". I can see that the only reason why bitcoin price hasn't plummeted yet is because of "the cult of hodling" and the ASIC market. I see that the main reason is that miners payed good money for their ASICs, that won't bring in any ROI with these prices. So, this is a desperate hold and it can't last like that forever. Over time, miners are cutting their losses and selling their mining equipment and coins cheap. This will eventually trigger the hodlers to sell also, and that is the final end of this stupid and overly stretched dead cat bounce.

Really... thats how you tell how well the market is performing

Ok... so stock markets look healthy atm,  all must be well then in the market place then?

Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much...

Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect.

Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post

[kkaspar]

Well we agree all but on the one point then... (in bold)

With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had... more regulatory clarity than it has ever had around the globe.. more investment and more users than it has ever had... and also it is still standing..  these are all very good signs.... the money is invested and is seeding and fruiting now already, the regulations are being written, the ecosystem built, the users and belivers are all talking and eventually even their grans are going to have Bitcoin walllets if they want them or not (in my family anyway)  so it is those wheels in motion as we speak, right now that money, those devs, that work, the plans, the work of lawsky and co on the regs, all of these things are occuring right now.. as I type. So it is that coupled with an understanding of the power of network effect, coupled with the fact that I do not see Mt Gox taking down Bitcoin, I do not see the malleability issue doing so either, I do not see it being banned, so in the mid term I cannot see any reason wy it would go down in price either.. thats my point...   I  think that the problems will get less as the ecosystem develops which it is doing so, and as soon as Lawsky & Co do their thing, and the legal picture is clear , then the projects will spring up everywhere (some are already in dev now ,and some will start once regs are clearer) and the ecosystem will spring up super quick, and some of the big players that spring up next, will be in the public domain for decades.. These developments are happening right now  they are the foundations... they have been poured, and they are now just getting ready to set.

Do you consider that last year the price at $1100+ was unstable and to high, and that we have just had "bitcoin going lower"  
Else, what is your ideal figure I wonder? and why ?

With that point I do not agree that is the case, the entire market dispite these recent newses developments i.e China, Mtgox,code bug vs code feature, is stronger than it has ever been.... with more backing and interest than it has ever had...

Please don't make these long and boring speeches on how strong you think that the market is. I can see how "strong" the market is by looking at how "well" it preforms (correlation is not causation). Only time when the price has any momentum to go upwards is right after an major fall (historically incorrect). I don't work in a way that "encouraging words about the strength of bitcoin will keep my faith". I can see that the only reason why bitcoin price hasn't plummeted yet is because of "the cult of hodling" and the ASIC market (personal and historically unsubstantiated opinion). I see that the main reason is that miners payed good money for their ASICs, that won't bring in any ROI with these prices. So, this is a desperate (unsubstantialed opinion) hold and it can't last like that forever. Over time, miners are cutting their losses and selling their mining equipment and coins cheap (unsubstantiated opinion). This will eventually trigger the hodlers to sell also, and that is the final end of this stupid (personal and angry opinion)and overly stretched dead cat bounce.

(correlation is not causation) - There is no reason see that bitcoin has increased it's speculative demand.
(historically incorrect) - No, it's not historically incorrect. You can look at the 1d chart from oct. Only momentum that is left, is from the last China boom. It hasn't picked up because it doesn't have a reason to pick up. It just tries to hold while the force left from China boom is depleting. In my book, this is desperation.
(personal and historically unsubstantiated opinion). - The miner circle has the most amount of active coins. Miners didn't buy miners for passive long-term collection, or they would of bought coins in the first place. Like it or not, but miners do have a very big say on supply. It's very important if the stable flow of 3600 new coins per 24h goes to holding or for sale. Especially when demand is very low.
Also, your entire reply was an unsubstantiated opinion of my opinion. So this was a an out-of-place remark anyway.

[JorgeStolfi]

Weeell, another day, another totally failed prediction by the Chinese Slumber Method. But, I had a new epiphany!

Checking the prediciction for Huobi

Prediction posted: 2014-02-17 02:27 UTC
Prediction valid for:  2014-02-17 19:00--19:59 UTC
Huobi's predicted price: 3600 -- 3660 CNY (3630 plus or minus 30)
Huobi's actual price (L -- H): 3890 -- 3919 CNY (3905 plus or minus 15)
Error center-to-center: 275 CNY

The prediction is the rightmost blue rectangle on the following plot, just below the price bars.  It brings back memories of being a small child and unsuccessfully trying to catch a chicken.   And of being a grad student and unsuccessfully trying to solve this math problem.  But read on!



The epiphany: True Slumber Points

As before, the large dots over the price graph in the above image are the prices at the "Chinese Slumber Times", every day at 19:00 UTC (3:00 am in China).  This time, however, the plot distinguishes the True Slumber Points (yellow), when there really was no trade at Huobi, from the False Slumber Points (olive-brown), where some of the clients (or robots) continued to trade nonstop through the night.  

As you can see,  all five True Slumber Points after the First Karpeles Catastrophe (on Monday Feb/10)  lie very close to  straight trend line; whereas the three False points seem to be far more random.  That observation gives new hope for the Method.

Checking the prediction for Bitstamp

Recall that the prediction for Bitstamp is just the Huobi prediction divided by the currency factor R = 6.12.  

Bitstamp's predicted price: 580 -- 600 USD (590 plus or minus 10)
Bitstamp's actual price (L--H): 630 -- 638 USD (634 plus or minus 4)
Error center-to-center: 44 USD

In the image below, the yellow and brown dots are Huobi's prices at the Slumber Times, divided by R (6.40 for feb/07--feb09, 6.12 for all other days)

[empowering]

[kkaspar]

Ok... so stock markets look healthy atm,  all must be well then in the market place then?

Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much...

Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect.

Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post

I don't think that the stock market looks very healthy at the moment. There are also many uncertainties, and that's not considered healthy. Healthy is the market where there is little chance of bad surprises.
It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC. It's hard to imagine how someone could be this stupid, so I bet they are just manipulating the market and motivating the sheep to buy, so they can sell themselves.

[empowering]

Ok... so stock markets look healthy atm,  all must be well then in the market place then?

Gold and Silver, little rally last few days, but been quite low for quite some time, so they must not be worth much...

Sorry to bore you, but no gun to your head old chap, so if you do not want to read hit ignore, with all respect.

Happy to discuss otherwise, without asking you not to post

I don't think that the stock market looks very healthy at the moment. There are also many uncertainties, and that's not considered healthy. Healthy is the market where there is little chance of bad surprises.
It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox return it's customers $ and BTC. It's hard to imagine how someone could be this stupid, so I bet they are just manipulating the market and motivating the sheep to buy, so they can sell themselves.

Time.

Depends on when you look for the permanent upward trend, what time scale, from start, until now.. well there is...
from now into future could well be...   you can cherry pick to show periods of down trend in the Bitcoin timescale if you want , to get whatever result you are looking for though.

MtGox does not equal Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not Mt Gox, also maybe some of us simply have a different analysis and have a different idea of what will happen with MtGox, and if or if not a particular event would prove to be that important over a timescale of the next year, two years... so that does not make them, stupid, it just means they may have different opnion, or maybe a different risk tolerance than you do.
also I think you give to much credence to the idea that someone spreading some "good btc news or vibes" or bad for that matter make a huge whole lot of difference

[aminorex]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

[kkaspar]

Time.

Depends on when you look for the permanent upward trend, what time scale, from start, until now.. well there is...
from now into future could well be...   you can cherry pick to show periods of down trend in the Bitcoin timescale if you want , to get whatever result you are looking for though.

MtGox does not equal Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not Mt Gox, also maybe some of us simply have a different analysis and have a different idea of what will happen with MtGox, and if or if not a particular event would prove to be that important over a timescale of the next year, two years... so that does not make them, stupid, it just means they may have different opnion, or maybe a different risk tolerance than you do.
also I think you give to much credence to the idea that someone spreading some "good btc news or vibes" or bad for that matter make a huge whole lot of difference

If you look at the entire history of bitcoin bubble-cycle, then the next bubble will always drop to the point where the previous bubble reached. And with this quarterly timescale, you can see that the risen demand in China made the price go up, and now this demand is gone without a substitute. So, no mater what period I observe, I see that the right place should be around 200-300$.
MtGox is not Bitcoin, but MtGox IS A BIG PART OF THE BITCOIN MARKET! How can this be so hard to understand? If people are saying that the market is turning up, without knowing the outcome with MtGox, then they are either stupid or they are lying.
When it turns out that MtGox is insolvent, then the press won't cover how people lost their money trusting MtGox. MtGox is not the hot subject here, the press will talk how people lost their money investing in bitcoin. How bitcoin is just a play money, manipulated by guys who run places like MtGox. And that will scare away any new investor with a half a brain, because he can see that there are actually no regulations that would keep his money safe, when trusting the bitcoin market system. That he would just have to invest in blind faith, and only fools do that.

[kkaspar]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

[windjc]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have zero vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[seleme]

Bears, just sell it to 200$ please, I really want to reach 1000 BTC goal. 

[kkaspar]

It makes me laugh that "experts" here are actually saying that this is an permanent upwards trend, even if it's not still sure if MtGox can return it's customers $ and BTC.

do you think the fate of gox bears strongly on the long-term value of btc?  if so, why?

It's because that's what most have been waiting for. A solid reason to call bitcoin an Ponzi scheme. If Gox goes bad, then it will be played out like bitcoin is actually just a tool for people like Karpeles to prey on their victims.

You have zero vision. Bitcoin has been through WAY worse than this. And it keeps on keeping on. You are just caught up in the moment with no historical vantage point. Its laughable that you think a healthy market means one with no risks. Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk. Otherwise be quiet please.

(personal and historically unsubstantiated angry opinion)

[empowering]

Time.

Depends on when you look for the permanent upward trend, what time scale, from start, until now.. well there is...
from now into future could well be...   you can cherry pick to show periods of down trend in the Bitcoin timescale if you want , to get whatever result you are looking for though.

MtGox does not equal Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is not Mt Gox, also maybe some of us simply have a different analysis and have a different idea of what will happen with MtGox, and if or if not a particular event would prove to be that important over a timescale of the next year, two years... so that does not make them, stupid, it just means they may have different opnion, or maybe a different risk tolerance than you do.
also I think you give to much credence to the idea that someone spreading some "good btc news or vibes" or bad for that matter make a huge whole lot of difference

If you look at the entire history of bitcoin bubble-cycle, then the next bubble will always drop to the point where the previous bubble reached. And with this quarterly timescale, you can see that the risen demand in China made the price go up, and now this demand is gone without a substitute. So, no mater what period I observe, I see that the right place should be around 200-300$.
MtGox is not Bitcoin, but MtGox IS A BIG PART OF THE BITCOIN MARKET! How can this be so hard to understand? If people are saying that the market is turning up, without knowing the outcome with MtGox, then they are either stupid or they are lying.
When it turns out that MtGox is insolvent, then the press won't cover how people lost their money trusting MtGox. MtGox is not the hot subject here, the press will talk how people lost their money investing in bitcoin. How bitcoin is just a play money, manipulated by guys who run places like MtGox. And that will scare away any new investor with a half a brain, because he can see that there are actually no regulations that would keep his money safe, when trusting the bitcoin market system. That he would just have to invest in blind faith, and only fools do that.

Ok , circles , I do not agree with your analysis regarding MT Gox, lets revist this in two weeks time ok?  cool

[aminorex]

Go trade rocks for sand if you want no risk.

I lost some money hopping on Carboceramics too late in the game.  (They make sand, for fracking.)  I found the whole rock-sand trade to be too much risk for me.  Now I hold bitcoin instead.