Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

There won't be a rise just because there is strong support at the bottom, there also has to be strong support for lift, but it aint there. Without lift the bottom will only weaken and weaken until it breaks.

Now this analysis I can deal with.  In fact, you've described the reason why I have some fiat in reserve.  There is a substantial likelihood of an impending final capitulation.

Regarding having Fiat in reserve, Are you saying that you have invested most of your liquid assets in BTC?    

I know that there are some people  who have put their life savings into bitcoin... but surely a risky strategy...


Personally, almost all of my liquid assets are in various forms of fiat....  save a relatively small percentage in BTC.

I am investing in BTC b/c I want to diversify some of my assets out of fiat (namely away from the dollar).

I am fairly bullish on BTC, but I only started investing in November 2013..., and I have been dollar cost averaging my BTC investment through the last 2.5 months attempting to buy more BTC during the dips and only investing a small percentage of my total investment portfolio into BTC - so even though my initial BTCs were bought at around $1,200, my average BTC buy price is currently at about $744.  

Currently, I am holding... hoping to buy more BTC on Coinbase below $560.. if such a BTC price dip were to occur... and doing a tiny bit of trading on BTC-e (but I am NOT very good at timing daytrades.  Therefore, I don't attempt too many big or risky trades - unless there seems to be some clear signal of the BTC price direction - which seems rare).  

Nonetheless, my current prediction is that BTC is going to be in turmoil for the next couple of weeks waiting for more clear news from Gox - which Gox is likely to straggle along for another several months... and may be able to re-brand itself... possibly, like Silkroad 2 is attempting to do with its recent press release...     I agree Gox seems to be a drag on the current bitcoin prices and causing uncertainty about the future of BTC...  I do think that a transparent statement, such as the one provided by Silkroad 2, and a kind of outline of a forward plan.. that sounds reasonable, could help Gox to stay alive.    


Yet, the Gox situation may cause developments for investors / customers to receive assurances that exchanges or similar enties are NOT going to run away with their bitcoins...

[1714679802]

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[1714679802]

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[aminorex]

Most importantly, Where are we currently at on that chart?   the beginning, middle or end?

In capitulation, heading to despair. All of which will become just another part of the next take-off phase.

Maybe we are still in the early stages of the awareness stage?  Lots of people do NOT know what the fuck is bitcoin.

The first great use-case for bitcoin, which will drive value for the next couple of years, is international remittances.
The mass of adopters for remittances consists of immigrants.  I am in New York City about half of the time, and always
ask every taxi driver if they have ever heard of bitcoin.  These people are from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ghana, Senegal, etc.
Never, not once, has a taxi driver known what a bitcoin was, or even how to spell it with confidence.  (Although,
I suspect a few of them may one day send their children to Harvard with bitcoin bought since I met them.)

We are way, way short of take-off.  We are in stealth mode.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Or, he thinks long-term.

The more long-term you predict bitcoin, the more you gamble. There are so many real factors that rise probability, that in the coming years, bitcoin will die. Only thing special about bitcoin is that it was the first popular outlet of an very good idea. It's like believing in the 80s that Apple will always dominate the personal computer market, because it was the first to succeed with Macintosh. You can't hold onto this idea alone. Other can better that idea or just market that idea better with their products.

Bitcoin value is only held up by speculation
- Definitely not true.  Bitcoin adds a great deal of economic value.

Sadly it is. Bitcoin has very little economic value, the idea has a lot of potential for value, but bitcoin itself is an economic gimmick. Mainly because of the overly simplified proof-of-work system to introduce new coins. Because of that, bitcoin will never be a stand-alone currency and it needs fiat to give it value.
Right now, with adopting bitcoin payments at your shop has no value in financial efficiency. You will only gain the trouble in converting your money. Only reason why some companies decide to accept bitcoin payment, is for marketing reasons. Starting to accept bitcoin will get you lot's of free press and it will also get you some new loyar customers among those who are loyal to bitcoin. It will make your financial dealings less efficent, not more.

If you want to store value, then buy resources like rare-earth metals, that are in constant demand together with technological advancements and their supply is constantly getting tighter.

-"Rare-earth" is a bit of a misnomer.  They aren't actually all that rare.  And the supply-demand equation fluctuates a great deal.  I would definitely consider bitcoin to be a much safer investment than rare-earth commodities, which are not so easy to physically hold, by the way. There may be some rare-earth supply-chain enterprises which are fairly safe investments, but they are unlikely to qualify as stores of value, or to provide such speculative upside as bitcoin.

With Rare-earth metals, it's not hard to find geographical places from where to extract the ore, but it will be difficult to find places that let mining and processing with this environmental impact to happen on their soil. And also to consider the growing demand, I think that picking the right element is the best store of value investment that one can currently do.

Bitcoin is not rare, it's only decided by a group of people that it is rare. And you are also trusting a group of unknown people that it will stay rare.
- A very large group of mostly known people whose interests are fairly predictably aligned with my own.

There are about 12,37mil bitcoins in circulation. Can you tell me the names of the known people who own 6mil bitcoins together? or even 2mil? or 1mil?
Last time I remember that some big bitcoin holder came into public with his coins was when Winklevosses declared that they have about 1% of total bitcoin circulation. Can you please give me other names that have declared how big their stake is in bitcoin, so I can see on who are these people who I am supposed to trust then?

Cool, another obnoxious, arrogant  know-it-all has found the Wall observer thread ... fresh meat on the grill.

[windjc]

You don't actually understand macroeconomics and finance better than me or you would know that the value in bitcoin is not as a currency.

Oh, interesting! Explain me then, what is the true value of bitcoin.

You missed the entire point of this technology.

The technology of what? Cryptography? Python? Personal computers? The Internet?
Bitcoin source code doesn't bring anything new to the table, it only combines existing technologies in one innovative idea. So, there is no complex "technology" in bitcoin to be valued, the idea is what is valuable and the idea can be made better by others with their own innovations.

Volatility doesn't matter to merchants for reasons that are obvious and because of issues that have already been resolved by companies like Bitpay.

Services like Bitpay will only maximize it's utility with using it as an intermediate payment tool to compete with credit card companies. Currently using bitcoin is more expensive, time consuming and difficult then using a credit cards. Right now it's a gimmick even in this intermediate payment field. It only could be more then a gimmick if it would be a stand-alone currency without fiat to support it.

In 5 years you will understand.

[KeyserSoze]

I spy panic on the horizon.

http://disney.wikia.com/wiki/Pain_and_Panic

[kkaspar]

I might mention here that your manners and language are not characteristic of an educated mind, nor even of a marginally socialized modest intelligence.

Yes, I know. But I have no reason to remain civil with someone who repeatedly tells me that I have no vision or how I don't believe in fundamentals of technology. I find windjc to be arrogant and ignorant at the same time and personally I would have already prefer corporal punishment on him, but I have to settle with what I can.
I will speak to everyone in the language they understand best. I'll only remain civil to people who deserve it. Most of the people who oppose my ideas here deserve it, while windjc is currently the only one here that I think deserves a good ass-kicking instead.

And where will you find better stability?  "Stablecoin"?  

Bitcoin will be stable when it stops growing so rapidly and has more inertia (market cap, if you must) relative to the fiat cross-flow.

Not all investors are so pusillanimous as to find the necessary growth phase daunting.  Without growth, no network can become non-trivially homeostatic.

Don't know where I will find it, because it hasn't been created yet.
Increase in market cap. will only attract players with deeper pockets and better knowledge on how to play an unregulated market. If market cap. will get bigger then the previous whales won't be as important, but there will be new whales who will be more capable in manipulating the market for their personal gain.
That is the sad final outcome of an deflative currency with an unregulated market system. Money can never be attractive as an investment opportunity or it will ruin the entire idea why money should be. Money is no value by itself, but only an intermediate tool to trade value. If you try to make money as an valuable investment, then you will actually screw up the economy.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

[kkaspar]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

It's a gimmick in finance, but it's pretty practical in gambling.

[JayJuanGee]

@windjc

i read through all the technical fundamentals as you proposed and i came to the conclusion that this chart might be the future of Bitcoin.
It´s actually from the hidden page of Satoshis white paper written with magic ink, many have not seen it before.
You should take a look at it:




pic



LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOOL

Most importantly, Where are we currently at on that chart?   the beginning, middle or end?  Maybe we are still in the early stages of the awareness stage?  Lots of people do NOT know what the fuck is bitcoin.

Goldman sachs(coinbase) and second market are the instituional investors. 40% of all americans know bitcoin. PLus there are huge similarities with the actual chart, check 3d. so do the math, and put your buy orders below 200$   

Can we invite the designer of the bubble graph into the forum? That would be awesome, so that everybody could ask him about his opinion.

No chart can predict exactly where BTC is going.. and really I doubt that we are going to reach $200 in the near future (though anything is possible, of course - and there could be some flash crashes... since the BTC market cap is still fairly small at less than 9 billion...  

I do think $400s and $500s are possible in the next weeks... but you know we do NOT really know where we are at on the chart that you presented until we look back at in retrospect..

[windjc]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

Lol.

The stages of learning:
1. Unconscious incompetence - you don't realize how ignorant you are
2. Conscious incompetence - you realize you 're ignorant
3. Conscious competence - you start to try and understand
4. Unconscious competence - you are able to teach

Kkasper is currently unconsciously incompetent

[KeyserSoze]

Anyone fancy a go at a MtGox/Karpeles haiku?

imprisoned by gox
the coins of binary birth
hold your breath "two weeks"

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

It's a gimmick in finance, but it's pretty practical in gambling.

You haven't mentioned that it is now an established network protocol yet.

I thought your erudite analysis of why it was going to become obsolete in 2-3 years would need to address that?

PS: Leave the potty-mouth insolence at the door.

[kkaspar]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

Lol.

The stages of learning:
1. Unconscious incompetence - you don't realize how ignorant you are
2. Conscious incompetence - you realize you 're ignorant
3. Conscious competence - you start to try and understand
4. Unconscious competence - you are able to teach

Kkasper is currently unconsciously incompetent

You're not even competent enough to spell my name..

[nanobrain]

Anyone fancy a go at a MtGox/Karpeles haiku?

imprisoned by gox
the coins of binary birth
hold your breath "two weeks"

Very good.

And for what its worth, Walsoraj STILL owes me a poem from a bet he lost with me.

Perhaps he should be Welch-o-lot.

[JayJuanGee]

Most importantly, Where are we currently at on that chart?   the beginning, middle or end?

In capitulation, heading to despair. All of which will become just another part of the next take-off phase.

Maybe we are still in the early stages of the awareness stage?  Lots of people do NOT know what the fuck is bitcoin.

The first great use-case for bitcoin, which will drive value for the next couple of years, is international remittances.
The mass of adopters for remittances consists of immigrants.  I am in New York City about half of the time, and always
ask every taxi driver if they have ever heard of bitcoin.  These people are from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ghana, Senegal, etc.
Never, not once, has a taxi driver known what a bitcoin was, or even how to spell it with confidence.  (Although,
I suspect a few of them may one day send their children to Harvard with bitcoin bought since I met them.)

We are way, way short of take-off.  We are in stealth mode.

I think that we largely agree.. that there is like going to be a take off in the future and it may be in stages.. and it may be partly based on remittances and also other reasons... including the instability of a lot of currencies outside of the dollar.. NOT that the dollar is stable... but relatively speaking it is (at the moment).

[kkaspar]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

It's a gimmick in finance, but it's pretty practical in gambling.

You haven't mentioned that it is now an established network protocol yet.

I thought your erudite analysis of why it was going to become obsolete in 2-3 years would need to address that?

PS: Leave the potty-mouth insolence at the door.

Even if the bitcoin code could be considered as an established network protocol, it wouldn't mean that bitcoin units will have any value in the future. It would only mean that the same protocol will be used in the future to create new currencies with new units.
But I hardly believe that future developers will use the bitcoin code. Using bitcoin code to create altcoins will stay in time when only hobbyists and students created new coins for fun. If cryptos will be an serious financial tool, then the bitcoin code will be history.

[aminorex]

gaijin otaku
sips candy frappucino
bitcoinica paid

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

It's a gimmick in finance, but it's pretty practical in gambling.

You haven't mentioned that it is now an established network protocol yet.

I thought your erudite analysis of why it was going to become obsolete in 2-3 years would need to address that?

PS: Leave the potty-mouth insolence at the door.

Even if the bitcoin code could be considered as an established network protocol, it wouldn't mean that bitcoin units will have any value in the future. It would only mean that the same protocol will be used in the future to create new currencies with new units.
But I hardly believe that future developers will use the bitcoin code. Using bitcoin code to create altcoins will stay in time when only hobbyists and students created new coins for fun. If cryptos will be an serious financial tool, then the bitcoin code will be history.

... i guess this is the speculation thread. Unsubstantiated, opinionated diatribe can pass for commentary i suppose.

Edit: you could post your concerns in the "Development and Technical Discussion" if think you have something useful to contribute?

[Walsoraj]

That 1200 bid wall on gox gonna get pulled and cause some tears.

[kkaspar]

Yep. bitcoin was only good for buying drugs before I got into it ... after that it was only a gimmick.

It's a gimmick in finance, but it's pretty practical in gambling.

You haven't mentioned that it is now an established network protocol yet.

I thought your erudite analysis of why it was going to become obsolete in 2-3 years would need to address that?

PS: Leave the potty-mouth insolence at the door.

Even if the bitcoin code could be considered as an established network protocol, it wouldn't mean that bitcoin units will have any value in the future. It would only mean that the same protocol will be used in the future to create new currencies with new units.
But I hardly believe that future developers will use the bitcoin code. Using bitcoin code to create altcoins will stay in time when only hobbyists and students created new coins for fun. If cryptos will be an serious financial tool, then the bitcoin code will be history.

... i guess this is the speculation thread. Unsubstantiated, opinionated diatribe can pass for commentary i suppose.

Looking at your posts that were directed at me.. I only have to say that I suppose so.

Edit: Sadly I think that the main faults are in the core of bitcoin and can't be fixed. Faults like deflation and how it promotes increasing use of hardware, while not actually offering practical use for it. If the bitcoin network would be faster or more secure with increased amount of miners, then I would already be more optimistic about bitcoin survival.