Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[YourMother]

My dude, whenever i see bitcoin and greece in the same sentence i...




Seriously, half of the population of greece is not connected to the internet and the other half doesn´t give a shit about bitcoin, with the exception of maybe one or two thousand geeks. Stop with the nonsense. The majority of the people are shutting down their computers by unplugging the cable cord from the power source and you expect them to use 2 factor authentication, anti keyloggers and encrypted backups ?

Please, use some common sense, for fuck's sake! I didn´t even managed to express 20% of the problems that one could encounter by using bitcoin. It's simply disgusting to see this garbage discussion being repeated every week.

[bad trader]

bullish market ∧ large buy → panic selling

Panic selling or taking profits on small dollar differences on margin?

Yes, but it crashes below the starting point. Stable price → large buy → crash below the stable price.



edit1: Looking at it again, the OKCoin upswing started before the Bitstamp buy, so it wasn't as simple as I thought. Maybe it was normal price action. I thought it was triggered by arbitrage.
edit2: Also the volume is greater on OKCoin, so never mind.

[lyth0s]

With the next auction of DPR's 50,000BTC coming up in March I expect most of the coins to be sold much lower than market price and I also expect a huge dump after the coins from the auctions are dispersed. We may even see sub $150 coins at that time. I highly doubt any good positive gains until at least a few weeks after the auction. Most people won't take that chance of getting dumped on.

auction will be a non-event. nothing will happen at all.

Please explain.

Simply because it's expected and forecasted since months back.

Are you guys new around here? You can factor in "sentiment" way ahead, but not an actual dump. Price is already 240's, but if they dump an additional full 50,000 coins at once on bitstamp/finex the price will drop even further. Simple yet people like to remain ignorant to sentiment vs sentiment PLUS actual dump.

in last auction nothing happened in the day of the auction.

That's a silly statement. Dumps would happen days after the auction. marshalls announce winners, then people have to first receive their coins to their wallet. Then choose exchanges to send the coins to. Then evaluate how many coins they will dump at each price that day, IE is the market absorbing my whole dump? Do I need to sell 100BTC $1 apart? can I sell 200BTC $1 apart? etc. Only the great bearwhale is dumb enough to setup one huge sell wall and all for a price less than market price. He could have easily made an additional 3 million if he planned that maneuver.

Do you think draper or the syndicate dumped?

Neither. I'm saying that this time there will be low demand for the 50,000 coins which will lead to lower than market prices, which could very well lead to a dump for quick profits THIS time

[Brewins]

Can someone explain this shit to me. The price looks stable. Then someone buys ~600 BTC on Bitstamp. Then OKCoin crashes. Why?

Does the price swing confuse the bots?
Does the price swing trigger trailing stops?
Did the pump and dumper's target price get hit?

I've seen this happen before and it does not make sense to me:
bullish market ∧ large buy → panic selling

maybe just coincidence?

Or some arbitrage bot?

[lyth0s]

bullish market ∧ large buy → panic selling

Panic selling or taking profits on small dollar differences on margin?

Yes, but it crashes below the starting point. Stable price → large buy → crash below the stable price.

My typical way of trading (for fun) is wait for price to go higher than the short term 12-24 hour range, then open a leveraged short, wait for price to drop to at least lower bound of last 12-24 hour range (the more the better) and if price continues to fall then hold for a little bit. Once it looks like price is even *thinking* about going back to the days range close my short and open a leveraged long (both of which add buying pressure).

If other people are doing the same thing (which is highly profitable and since most traders are smarter than me I'm sure they are making a lot more than myself) maybe that is creating the pattern.

I trade for fun and small daily profits, so don't take my advice as a for sure thing or anything to that regard.

[Specular]

In all seriousness, the Greek situation demonstrates how important Bitcoin COULD be. There is a nation of 11 Million people who may soon discover that their chequing accounts are part of a high-stakes game of poker between Angela Merkel and Syriza.  

There is a 5-15% chance that the Greeks leave the Euro in 2015  and are forced into converting to Drachmas (IMHO). Greek savers will collectively lose Billions of dollars in buying power if that happens.

Most people don't worry about Capital controls, banking panics and access to their life savings until they are faced with a major crisis, and then people make emotional decisions.

That being said - the Cyprus Pump was probably not caused by Cypriots buying BTC hand over fist, and if we get a Greek pump, I doubt that much of the volume will come from Greek people. It is more of idea that the Market recognizes such events as damaging to the present financial system (which has only been in place for 40~ years). It is the same reason Gold may rise if there is a "Grexit" - 80% speculation, 20% increase in real buying. This last paragraph is 90% my biased opinion - as is most of this post lol.

Greece biggest problem is that they spend more than they make.   The USA too, but the Americans have unlimited credit lines and can always print more money.

Greece's biggest problem is that it is insolvent. It a 170% Debt/GDP ratio. It actually has a current budget surplus (government revenue is more than spending) - but the interest and debt burden is killing them.

This is why it is so fascinating. The most logical thing for them to do is to default HARD on that debt, start from a clean slate, and we will all be vacationing in Greece next year due to the affordable prices. The Greeks are already in the worst case senario, it can't get much worse economically - the only place where it can get worse is that the Greke population may take a haircut on their savings by converting to Drachmas. If I was in charge of Greece, and I was brave enough, I'd default.

[bad trader]

Can someone explain this shit to me. The price looks stable. Then someone buys ~600 BTC on Bitstamp. Then OKCoin crashes. Why?

maybe just coincidence?

Looking at it closer, the Bitstamp buy may have been just a panic buy because of the OKCoin upswing and perhaps didn't affect it too much.

[empowering]

With the next auction of DPR's 50,000BTC coming up in March I expect most of the coins to be sold much lower than market price and I also expect a huge dump after the coins from the auctions are dispersed. We may even see sub $150 coins at that time. I highly doubt any good positive gains until at least a few weeks after the auction. Most people won't take that chance of getting dumped on.

auction will be a non-event. nothing will happen at all.

Please explain.

Simply because it's expected and forecasted since months back.

Are you guys new around here? You can factor in "sentiment" way ahead, but not an actual dump. Price is already 240's, but if they dump an additional full 50,000 coins at once on bitstamp/finex the price will drop even further. Simple yet people like to remain ignorant to sentiment vs sentiment PLUS actual dump.

in last auction nothing happened in the day of the auction.

That's a silly statement. Dumps would happen days after the auction. marshalls announce winners, then people have to first receive their coins to their wallet. Then choose exchanges to send the coins to. Then evaluate how many coins they will dump at each price that day, IE is the market absorbing my whole dump? Do I need to sell 100BTC $1 apart? can I sell 200BTC $1 apart? etc. Only the great bearwhale is dumb enough to setup one huge sell wall and all for a price less than market price. He could have easily made an additional 3 million if he planned that maneuver.

Do you think draper or the syndicate dumped?

Neither. I'm saying that this time there will be low demand for the 50,000 coins which will lead to lower than market prices, which could very well lead to a dump for quick profits THIS time

Meh....yeah it could (but then again people said exactly the same thing last time around) or it could pan out pretty much the same way as before. I more tend towards it being a non event, coins get auctioned, bought probably close to market, maybe by a syndicate, and we will probably hear or see bugger all afterwards.

Guess we will know soon enough eitherway  

[damiano]

Can someone explain this shit to me. The price looks stable. Then someone buys ~600 BTC on Bitstamp. Then OKCoin crashes. Why?

maybe just coincidence?

Looking at it closer, the Bitstamp buy may have been just a panic buy because of the OKCoin upswing and perhaps didn't affect it too much.

OKcoin goes full retard on price a lot especially during a pump.  Last weekends pump the price was almost +$10.00 on the index it follows

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[aztecminer]

Looks like the bulls are prepping for an assault on the $245 wall. I think there might be some hidden resistance, so I'm gonna wait for the bears to soften up a little.

Not much left on btc swaps...

I'm not worried about short-sellers. In fact, I'm counting on them. What I'm worried about is bulls taking profits too soon and letting them off the hook.

ok well this is the weaksauce of the gimpyest 'short squeeze' ever ..... get ready to get smash dumped on .

[PoolMinor]

With the next auction of DPR's 50,000BTC coming up in March I expect most of the coins to be sold much lower than market price and I also expect a huge dump after the coins from the auctions are dispersed. We may even see sub $150 coins at that time. I highly doubt any good positive gains until at least a few weeks after the auction. Most people won't take that chance of getting dumped on.

auction will be a non-event. nothing will happen at all.

Please explain.

Simply because it's expected and forecasted since months back.

Are you guys new around here? You can factor in "sentiment" way ahead, but not an actual dump. Price is already 240's, but if they dump an additional full 50,000 coins at once on bitstamp/finex the price will drop even further. Simple yet people like to remain ignorant to sentiment vs sentiment PLUS actual dump.

in last auction nothing happened in the day of the auction.

That's a silly statement. Dumps would happen days after the auction. marshalls announce winners, then people have to first receive their coins to their wallet. Then choose exchanges to send the coins to. Then evaluate how many coins they will dump at each price that day, IE is the market absorbing my whole dump? Do I need to sell 100BTC $1 apart? can I sell 200BTC $1 apart? etc. Only the great bearwhale is dumb enough to setup one huge sell wall and all for a price less than market price. He could have easily made an additional 3 million if he planned that maneuver.

Do you think draper or the syndicate dumped?

Here is the address that has the 28K BTC 16cTyJLWbXQz3UZ3sYjy6A6VGX4sAqiEo1 from the Draper auction.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Sitarow]

[BrewCrewFan]

In all seriousness, the Greek situation demonstrates how important Bitcoin COULD be. There is a nation of 11 Million people who may soon discover that their chequing accounts are part of a high-stakes game of poker between Angela Merkel and Syriza. 

There is a 5-15% chance that the Greeks leave the Euro in 2015  and are forced into converting to Drachmas (IMHO). Greek savers will collectively lose Billions of dollars in buying power if that happens.

Most people don't worry about Capital controls, banking panics and access to their life savings until they are faced with a major crisis, and then people make emotional decisions.

That being said - the Cyprus Pump was probably not caused by Cypriots buying BTC hand over fist, and if we get a Greek pump, I doubt that much of the volume will come from Greek people. It is more of idea that the Market recognizes such events as damaging to the present financial system (which has only been in place for 40~ years). It is the same reason Gold may rise if there is a "Grexit" - 80% speculation, 20% increase in real buying. This last paragraph is 90% my biased opinion - as is most of this post lol.

Greece biggest problem is that they spend more than they make.   The USA too, but the Americans have unlimited credit lines and can always print more money.

Greece's biggest problem is that it is insolvent. It a 170% Debt/GDP ratio. It actually has a current budget surplus (government revenue is more than spending) - but the interest and debt burden is killing them.

This is why it is so fascinating. The most logical thing for them to do is to default HARD on that debt, start from a clean slate, and we will all be vacationing in Greece next year due to the affordable prices. The Greeks are already in the worst case senario, it can't get much worse economically - the only place where it can get worse is that the Greke population may take a haircut on their savings by converting to Drachmas. If I was in charge of Greece, and I was brave enough, I'd default.

Yes, but its just not you ( Greece ) that you have to worry about. By doing what you would say you would do would cause a cascading affect all over the world.

[empowering]

Got to be said.......Varoufakis... has got more front than Brighton beach.

Balls the size of watermelons.

(and he really does look and sound like a bond villain)

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[bitkilo]

Hope the price stays low till the US governments next auction, don't want to see them getting too rich of our coins, or in this case SR's coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Can someone explain this shit to me. The price looks stable. Then someone buys ~600 BTC on Bitstamp. Then OKCoin crashes. Why?

maybe just coincidence?

Looking at it closer, the Bitstamp buy may have been just a panic buy because of the OKCoin upswing and perhaps didn't affect it too much.

I have a gut feeling with nothing to back it up. Before I explain it, I should preface by saying that my gut feelings are often wrong and this should not be construed as trading advice or as an indication of my book, but here goes:

I think someone big missed the train. A whale or whales swimming deep in the order book were gonna catch the bottom of the CB dump, but only got a piece of it, not the control they were expecting. Now they could short on margin and tried to catch up, but they know how dangerous that would be, to risk a margin call. So they got desperate. Crashed a half dozen exchanges that they had previously compromised. Price fell, but not nearly enough to regain control. Now their only hope is jawboning the market lower, hacking/cracking where they can and FUD. They are waiting for the minnows to screw up, dump and give the market back to them.

It's just a gut feeling.