Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[YourMother]

Stability is not good.

[StoraGottes]

Opened long at 245. One week's pay.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[bassclef]

Green daily MACD

A formidable indicator on larger timescales.

For the uninitiated, because learning is more fun than trolling:

MACD

Developed by Gerald Appel in the late seventies, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence oscillator (MACD) is one of the simplest and most effective momentum indicators available. The MACD turns two trend-following indicators, moving averages, into a momentum oscillator by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average. As a result, the MACD offers the best of both worlds: trend following and momentum. The MACD fluctuates above and below the zero line as the moving averages converge, cross and diverge. Traders can look for signal line crossovers, centerline crossovers and divergences to generate signals. Because the MACD is unbounded, it is not particularly useful for identifying overbought and oversold levels.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[coinableS]

CCMF!  

Looks like sentiment agrees with you...
Look at those longs! 24.8 million USD swaps

What exchange/site is this from?

bfxdata.com

[billyjoeallen]

So Trolfi thinks the miners might want to delay the halving in order to have more coins to sell. Ridiculous. A delay would mean a precedent. If there is one delay, there may be more. I would immediately divest myself of my entire holdings and I wouldn't be alone. The miners know this and they won't do something that will crash the price and destroy their livelihood.

Incentives work. The success of this project demonstrates that and it is why the Statist are so rabidly opposed to it.  People have an overwhelming tendency to do what is in their INDIVIDUAL perceived best interest, including the supposed angels who control which way government guns are pointing.

[DaRude]

So Trolfi thinks the miners might want to delay the halving in order to have more coins to sell. Ridiculous. A delay would mean a precedent. If there is one delay, there may be more. I would immediately divest myself of my entire holdings and I wouldn't be alone. The miners know this and they won't do something that will crash the price and destroy their livelihood.

Incentives work. The success of this project demonstrates that and it is why the Statist are so rabidly opposed to it.  People have an overwhelming tendency to do what is in their INDIVIDUAL perceived best interest, including the supposed angels who control which way government guns are pointing.

Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.

[dropt]

So Trolfi thinks the miners might want to delay the halving in order to have more coins to sell. Ridiculous. A delay would mean a precedent. If there is one delay, there may be more. I would immediately divest myself of my entire holdings and I wouldn't be alone. The miners know this and they won't do something that will crash the price and destroy their livelihood.

Incentives work. The success of this project demonstrates that and it is why the Statist are so rabidly opposed to it.  People have an overwhelming tendency to do what is in their INDIVIDUAL perceived best interest, including the supposed angels who control which way government guns are pointing.

I'm a miner and I can't wait for the halving to hit.  I'm already fighting for scraps, I'll just have less scraps, but the corporate farms that continue to suck value from bitcoin will get kicked in the nuts.  FINE BY ME!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[mavericklm]

I'm a miner and I can't wait for the halving to hit.  I'm already fighting for scraps, I'll just have less scraps, but the corporate farms that continue to suck value from bitcoin will get kicked in the nuts.  FINE BY ME!

As a noob can't say i'm waiting for halving, but i'm very curious how things will be after that
I think i'm a bit afraid to get stuck with the hardware because no one person will want to mine at home
maybe the price will double and mining will be cool for the new guy

[JorgeStolfi]

Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.

That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective.

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.

Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear.  They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble...  

If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins.  

[BitcoinNewbie15]

The poll is almost split down the middle... I hope we see $300 in two weeks. But who knows...

[billyjoeallen]

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.

Where do you come up with this nonsense? Those 4-5 miners would postpone the halving to sell twice as many coins at less than a quarter the price?  The halving is priced in and if it doesn't happen there will be a crash. Everybody knows this.

Greedy miners are why it WON'T happen. Destroying the value of the thing you sell is just bad business. That's obvious to anyone who doesn't live in an ivory tower.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[DaRude]

Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.

That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective.

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.

Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear.  They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble...  

If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins.  

Huh  so there's incentive for miners to delay the halving, and if they decide to do it they will do it anyway and be successful 

Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??

[marcus_of_augustus]

Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.

That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective.

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.

Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear.  They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble...  

If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins.  

yeah, if you had half a clue about the hardcore of bitcoiners (none you mention) you'd be more worried about protecting your own assets than spending time spouting arrant nonsense, bordering on slander, on backwater threads of bitcoin forums ... you've had a pretty easy ride so far trolfi but the clock is ticking friend.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??

No, I do not know whether the top miners will try it, or any other "little abuse".  I believe that they could -- not just in theory, but even taking into account the possible reactions of the community.

Those 4-5 miners would postpone the halving to sell twice as many coins at less than a quarter the price?  The halving is priced in and if it doesn't happen there will be a crash. Everybody knows this.

Who says that it will be a quarter of the price? 

The past halvings did not have a visible effect on the price.  So why would a delay in the halving have any effect -- unless the ideologues go out screaming "BITCOIN IS WORTHLESS" to the world?  Now they wouldn't do that, right -- because "destroying the value of the thing you sell is just bad business."

The ideologues would react the same way they have reacted to previous bad news, like the MtGOX collapse, the confiscation and sale of the SilkRoad coins, the China bans, etc.: they will say that bitcoin is "antifragile" and will survive this third fork like it survived the previous two, or even that the change is "good for bitcoin".

In fact, that fork would probably be less traumatic than the previous two, because it would be deliberate rather than an unexpected bug.

There is nothing magical about the current halving schedule.  Satoshi could have just as well picked a schedule that skipped 2016 and antecipated the following halvings, and it would have been just as good (or just as bad) as the current one.  If he had done that, and we were discussing the opposite change, I am sure the objections would be the same...

yeah, if you had half a clue about the hardcore of bitcoiners (none you mention) you'd be more worried about protecting your own assets than spending time spouting arrant nonsense, bordering on slander, on backwater threads of bitcoin forums ... you've had a pretty easy ride so far trolfi but the clock is ticking friend.

Wait, are you accusing me of slander?  Of whom exactly? 

Or is that a threat, "stop warning people about the problems of bitcoin, or else"?

[inca]

Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??

No, I do not know whether the top miners will try it, or any other "little abuse".  I believe that they could -- not just in theory, but even taking into account the possible reactions of the community.

Those 4-5 miners would postpone the halving to sell twice as many coins at less than a quarter the price?  The halving is priced in and if it doesn't happen there will be a crash. Everybody knows this.

Who says that it will be a quarter of the price? 

The past halvings did not have a visible effect on the price.  So why would a delay in the halving have any effect -- unless the ideologues go out screaming "BITCOIN IS WORTHLESS" to the world?  Now they wouldn't do that, right -- because "destroying the value of the thing you sell is just bad business."

The ideologues would react the same way they have reacted to previous bad news, like the MtGOX collapse, the confiscation and sale of the SilkRoad coins, the China bans, etc.: they will say that bitcoin is "antifragile" and will survive this third fork like it survived the previous two, or even that the change is "good for bitcoin".

In fact, that fork would probably be less traumatic than the previous two, because it would be deliberate rather than an unexpected bug.

There is nothing magical about the current halving schedule.  Satoshi could have just as well picked a schedule that skipped 2016 and antecipated the following halvings, and it would have been just as good (or just as bad) as the current one.  If he had done that, and we were discussing the opposite change, I am sure the objections would be the same...

yeah, if you had half a clue about the hardcore of bitcoiners (none you mention) you'd be more worried about protecting your own assets than spending time spouting arrant nonsense, bordering on slander, on backwater threads of bitcoin forums ... you've had a pretty easy ride so far trolfi but the clock is ticking friend.

Wait, are you accusing me of slander?  Of whom exactly? 

Or is that a threat, "stop warning people about the problems of bitcoin, or else"?

You are really scraping the barrel now Stolfi.

You cannot find any genuine reason why bitcoin will fail in its current implementation. Solution? Find a hypothetical problem by changing the protocol. Lol.

You need to get out more.