Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ensurance982]

Lets see what happens.

Either bitcoin is very underpriced or GBTC users are happy to pay a heavy premium.

Dumping into the opening on a Chinese exchange shows the degree of desperation from bears - yes you will have to cover your positions

Well, to be fair, I think it was a valid attempt and could have turned out to be a wise strategy. Often it is "buy the rumour, sell the news" that works best in Bitcoin. With GBTC starting to trade, bears could have smelled a similar opportunity as with Coinbases exchange back in January! It was a run-up, and as soon as it went live - Boom, the bubble burst, back to $220. Could've worked this time, as well...

It hasn't.

Surprised we havent seen some big market buys tbh.

Yeah, it hasn't, which is good. But one is always wiser in retrospect! I'm actually quite relieved and almost surprised that we haven't seen a dumpfest as soon as GBTC went live. But them trading at 50% over spot price seems to be good news for a change. What about that incredible wall on Stamp?

1500 coins? Stamp is on life support tbh.

I agree that stamp does look like it's struggling quite a bit, especially when it's giving away promo codes, and waiving trading fees for a longer period of time after the incident in January. But on the other side, these asks are real, and people can buy those coins for that price. It's not as if this is some fake offer or something.

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[xyzzy099]

Yes, Socialism is a very effective way to gain the hearts and minds of the people, no doubt.

And a very effective way of running an economy which is what I was driving at.

Well, as you can probably tell by my signature, I would strongly disagree about that - but experience tells me that we will probably not resolve that argument here

[NewLiberty]

And a very effective way of running an economy which is what I was driving at.

Sure, but that is a horrible job for a government to be doing.  It works well until it doesn't.  When it fails it is catastrophic due to the massive bundling of services within the government institution.  It becomes the opposite of anti-fragile.

Building tanks out of glass is a very effective way of seeing the enemy from within the tank also.  It is just not the right job for it to be doing.

[Fatman3001]

I was not implying any kind of value judgement at all - just relating historical fact.

EDIT:  I realized I did not answer your point.  It is a fact that capitalists can practice a little socialism, socialists can practice a little capitalism, and either can be practiced to varying degrees by both good and evil men.  We do not live in a binary universe.

Your edit is pretty much what I was trying to say. There is nothing inherently wrong with Socialism. The Reich's (amazing) initial success in WW2 was, in large part, due to its socialist aspects: state taking control of the industry, subsidized scientific research, etc., etc. It's the "Nationalist" part that made nazis ...unlovable. The whole racial purity, eugenics, antisemitism, lebensraum at any cost etc. The "socialism" part worked like a charm

Yes, Socialism is a very effective way to gain the hearts and minds of the people, no doubt.

And a very effective way of running an economy which is what I was driving at.

Your responses seem to suggest that you read my initial post as implying that socialism was evil because Nazis were socialists.  I certainly never said anything like that.  I just pointed out that they were, in fact, socialists, both by their own claim, and demonstrably by many of their social and economic policies.

I corrected Fatman3001 by pointing out that, at least technically, nazis *were* socialist. So yeah, I'm with you there.

You two were getting on my tits a bit, but I see now that it's more a matter of confusion regarding terminology.

[derpinheimer]

Very low volume on GBTC, but its somewhat of a relief that they havent dumped down below the regular exchanges (yet?)

[Elwar]

It's actually not just a technicality.  National Socialists really were socialists - not only in name.  They apparently took the 'Nationalism' more seriously than the 'Socialism', but they were, nonetheless, actual socialists.

For example, in Hitler's Germany, all German citizens were guaranteed a job by the government.  All German citizens were entitled to an education at government expense.  Healthcare was not totally socialized, but was heavily subsidized by the government.  Etc., etc., etc.  Sounds reasonably socialist to me.

I agree with you, but on the other hand, that also makes folks like Henry Ford socialist.
Back in the 20s, Ford's workers also enjoyed many of the things commonly associated with socialism: Free daycare, subsidised housing, free medical care, recreation & sports complexes, etc.
And he was quite fond of the Nazis, and they were equally impressed by him - Goebbels translated Ford's antisemetic newspaper & used chunks of it in his speeches, verbatim
I guess the man who epitomises capitalist industrialism is a closet socialist

I was not implying any kind of value judgement at all - just relating historical fact.

EDIT:  I realized I did not answer your point.  It is a fact that capitalists can practice a little socialism, socialists can practice a little capitalism, and either can be practiced to varying degrees by both good and evil men.  We do not live in a binary universe.

Your edit is pretty much what I was trying to say. There is nothing inherently wrong with Socialism. The Reich's (amazing) initial success in WW2 was, in large part, due to its socialist aspects: state taking control of the industry, subsidized scientific research, etc., etc. It's the "Nationalist" part that made nazis ...unlovable. The whole racial purity, eugenics, antisemitism, lebensraum at any cost etc. The "socialism" part worked like a charm

Many would agree that Henry Ford was a fascist/socialist. He came up with a great idea, implemented brilliantly bringing the Model T which was ahead of its time. He also invented the production line which was also brilliant. I grew up admiring Henry Ford for those very things. Upon further research I found that his socialist/fascist tendencies tended to get in the way of being competitive moving forward. He just wanted to keep churning out Model Ts forever with the focus on making more, cheaper. He did not, however, focus on improving his design. Competitors caught up and surpassed his original vehicle and his son had to fight to push new model vehicles out to keep up. His father just focused on building larger factories and pushing out more Model Ts. Converting those large factories for military vehicles is probably what saved the company from bankruptcy.

As for Hitler, I will admit that I just threw him out because he was a member of the National Socialist party, not because I believe he was some huge bastion of socialism like Mussolini. But socialists (I will avoid saying communists because I know you prefer the term progressive or socialist these days) tend to blame the leaders who gain power in such regimes only to "not implement socialism right".
But, like I tell my conservative friends who complain about welfare programs, you gave them the power. Your system helped to grow the government to the point that they can do whatever they want. If a thief robs you and spends your money on drugs you shouldn't be upset that he spent the money on drugs and go on a tirade about how he should have used the money for food. He took your money.

Socialism takes power from the people. Those that believe in the ideal might think that the perfect system would then be to distribute that power equally among all of the people. But guess what? Too late. They took the power. They could give a rats ass about what system gave them that power or what they promised to do with it. It is now their power and they can do whatever they want with it because you were too stupid to protect that power. So socialism is the best breeding ground for people like Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Che, Mussolini, Bush, Obama, Clinton etc. They will take your power and do whatever they want with it.

[NewLiberty]

...
A great many people DO think that there is something inherently wrong with socialism.

You bet. Some also think that Ron Paul is perfectly sane & even believe in Austrian school economics. I know all about it.

It is an unnecessary and detrimental bundling of services into too-big-to-fail geographic monopolies.

Dog eat dog world out there, brother, not sure what to tell you. Write to your congressman, I guess. Or start a revolution, I dunno

I take it that by "out there" you mean outside the government sector?

[ensurance982]

Very low volume on GBTC, but its somewhat of a relief that they havent dumped down below the regular exchanges (yet?)

What did you expect? The asks begin at about 150% of the regular spot price and there aren't many people willing to sell. I think the volume really is higher than what I expected. How would they dump down the regular exchanges!? I don't really see what you're implying with that and how this could work?

[Chainsaw]

I have three data points to support this now, but I am still not certain.

I bought 1 share of GBTC at $46. That is not represented on the price chart (Ameritrade).
I then bought 100 at $42. That appears as the ATH.

A few minutes ago, I sold 1 share at $69.
I also sold 7 more at $133.7

I was so excited, sure it would now appear on the chart.
I received the cash - the transaction is done - and I believe it is the ATH ever set in a market.
But it does not show on the price chart. The GBTC listing still shows 100 for sale, even though my order is now for 93 shares (7 sold).

I think there is something about 100 share limits (maybe somewhere in between 1 and 100) causing them to not get pushed through or updated, or some minimum order filter for charts.

I'm surprised BTCS (the only other Bitcoin stock) has not really moved in either direction yet.

[xyzzy099]

I corrected Fatman3001 by pointing out that, at least technically, nazis *were* socialist. So yeah, I'm with you there.

You appear to be defining 'socialism' very narrowly.  They were NOT *technically* socialist - they were socialist, period.  Fascism is just as much a form of Socialism as, say, the Mutualism espoused by Proudhon.  Mutualism is vastly different than Fascism - and both are very different than so-called "marxist socialism", but they are all examples of socialist political/economic philosophy.

[tomothy]

First trade is showing up on http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote now

I now hold Bitcoin in my Roth IRA, purchased from Ameritrade.
No different than buying any other stock. (OK, pink sheets, so you must use limit orders, but you get the idea.)

I've waited years for this day! Can't wait to see what happens next.
I miiiiight have a bit of a bullish bias here ;-)

Is this with or rather through a self-funded roth ira? Sorry, I'm not overly familiar and just wanted to pick your brains a bit. This seems, well frankly, like an amazing vehicle for preserving growth.
So, if I understand correctly, you would have deposited up to $5500 for the year of contributions or how ever little; then you just bought the individual shares.

The money you've spent on this has already been taxed. So, assuming it is a qualified withdrawal; if you bought basically a coin at $420, if at the time it is withdrawn, the coin/share is now worth $1,000; you do not pay taxes on that $580 increase in value? And likewise; if the coin is worth say $32,000... you wouldn't pay tax on that additionally $31,000 in appreciation assuming it's a valid withdrawal?

That seems almost to good to be true lol. How is this not amazing!? lol?

[derpinheimer]

Very low volume on GBTC, but its somewhat of a relief that they havent dumped down below the regular exchanges (yet?)

What did you expect? The asks begin at about 150% of the regular spot price and there aren't many people willing to sell. I think the volume really is higher than what I expected. How would they dump down the regular exchanges!? I don't really see what you're implying with that and how this could work?

I'm saying it's good news? Not sure why people are dumping considering no one has dumped at all on GBTC yet.

[Chalkbot]

A few minutes ago, I sold 1 share at $69.
I also sold 7 more at $133.7

Haha, awesome.

[Sitarow]

I have three data points to support this now, but I am still not certain.

I bought 1 share of GBTC at $46. That is not represented on the price chart (Ameritrade).
I then bought 100 at $42. That appears as the ATH.

A few minutes ago, I sold 1 share at $69.
I also sold 7 more at $133.7

I was so excited, sure it would now appear on the chart.
I received the cash - the transaction is done - and I believe it is the ATH ever set in a market.
But it does not show on the price chart. The GBTC listing still shows 100 for sale, even though my order is now for 93 shares (7 sold).

I think there is something about 100 share limits (maybe somewhere in between 1 and 100) causing them to not get pushed through or updated, or some minimum order filter for charts.

I'm surprised BTCS (the only other Bitcoin stock) has not really moved in either direction yet.

For now the volume is low and the hopefull anticipation may be reflected in the price.

[minerpumpkin]

Lets see what happens.

Either bitcoin is very underpriced or GBTC users are happy to pay a heavy premium.

Dumping into the opening on a Chinese exchange shows the degree of desperation from bears - yes you will have to cover your positions

Both are true.  GBTC is the only option for some classes of funds (so heavy premium), and bitcoin is underpriced.  This is a decent arbitrage opportunity.

If someone is really serious about buying BTC, I bet they would be able to buy them on a regular exchange or from some mining company in bulk, even if they preferred an ETF. I know about the advantages and ease of use for people who are already active in that sector, but I don't know if this really warrants a markup of over 55%... This is quite steep!

[Elwar]

I dumped all of my Roth IRAs years ago. The promise is that any earnings on the Roth will be tax free when you retire.

I do not see that being case in a few decades when I retire.

I doubt we will even have the same government in a few decades when I retire.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Chainsaw]

First trade is showing up on http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote now

I now hold Bitcoin in my Roth IRA, purchased from Ameritrade.
No different than buying any other stock. (OK, pink sheets, so you must use limit orders, but you get the idea.)

I've waited years for this day! Can't wait to see what happens next.
I miiiiight have a bit of a bullish bias here ;-)

Is this with or rather through a self-funded roth ira? Sorry, I'm not overly familiar and just wanted to pick your brains a bit. This seems, well frankly, like an amazing vehicle for preserving growth.
So, if I understand correctly, you would have deposited up to $5500 for the year of contributions or how ever little; then you just bought the individual shares.

The money you've spent on this has already been taxed. So, assuming it is a qualified withdrawal; if you bought basically a coin at $420, if at the time it is withdrawn, the coin/share is now worth $1,000; you do not pay taxes on that $580 increase in value? And likewise; if the coin is worth say $32,000... you wouldn't pay tax on that additionally $31,000 in appreciation assuming it's a valid withdrawal?

That seems almost to good to be true lol. How is this not amazing!? lol?

To my knowledge, that is correct. (Consult your own accountant, blahblahblah disclaimer).

It is why I have been waiting for this day for years.
Anyone with retirement funds can now buy Bitcoin.

The faucet JUST opened, and the supply is not yet even a dribble.

It is simply unbelievable that $133.7 could be used to set an all time high.
I so badly wish it was represented on the charts.

[rolling]

First trade is showing up on http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote now

I now hold Bitcoin in my Roth IRA, purchased from Ameritrade.
No different than buying any other stock. (OK, pink sheets, so you must use limit orders, but you get the idea.)

I've waited years for this day! Can't wait to see what happens next.
I miiiiight have a bit of a bullish bias here ;-)

Is this with or rather through a self-funded roth ira? Sorry, I'm not overly familiar and just wanted to pick your brains a bit. This seems, well frankly, like an amazing vehicle for preserving growth.
So, if I understand correctly, you would have deposited up to $5500 for the year of contributions or how ever little; then you just bought the individual shares.

The money you've spent on this has already been taxed. So, assuming it is a qualified withdrawal; if you bought basically a coin at $420, if at the time it is withdrawn, the coin/share is now worth $1,000; you do not pay taxes on that $580 increase in value? And likewise; if the coin is worth say $32,000... you wouldn't pay tax on that additionally $31,000 in appreciation assuming it's a valid withdrawal?

That seems almost to good to be true lol. How is this not amazing!? lol?

To my knowledge, that is correct. (Consult your own accountant, blahblahblah disclaimer).

It is why I have been waiting for this day for years.
Anyone with retirement funds can now buy Bitcoin.

The faucet JUST opened, and the supply is not yet even a dribble.

It is simply unbelievable that $133.7 could be used to set an all time high.
I so badly wish it was represented on the charts.

Maybe it will show on the charts once the other 93 shares sell (and they will).

[Chainsaw]

Lets see what happens.

Either bitcoin is very underpriced or GBTC users are happy to pay a heavy premium.

Dumping into the opening on a Chinese exchange shows the degree of desperation from bears - yes you will have to cover your positions

Both are true.  GBTC is the only option for some classes of funds (so heavy premium), and bitcoin is underpriced.  This is a decent arbitrage opportunity.

If someone is really serious about buying BTC, I bet they would be able to buy them on a regular exchange or from some mining company in bulk, even if they preferred an ETF. I know about the advantages and ease of use for people who are already active in that sector, but I don't know if this really warrants a markup of over 55%... This is quite steep!

There's a weird chicken-and-egg thing here. Could be wrong, buuuut:

a) Assessed market value without publicly tradable funds: $238.82.
b) Assessed market value WITH publicly tradable funds: $420.00 ($42 sale price of GBTC x 10 shares = 1 BTC)

As soon as the orders placed COULD become filled, the market shifted from a) to b), revaluating it.

That is the most optimistic explanation.

We're in one of those rare instances where supply or demand is severely pinched. Most actors don't know how to respond...until a trend emerges.
Success is far from guaranteed here, but this day ACTUALLY coming can't hurt the bullish scenario in my view.