Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phoenix1]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

[Norway]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[phoenix1]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

I've been watching, Norway.
Don't you read the news? Have you not seen how long price and fundamentals can remain detached (at least 10 years and counting for the global economy)? Why do you believe BTC is so fundamentally different that the same detachment cannot occur for a prolonged period of time? Particualrly considering it is a nascent technology fighting to earn trust. It is yet to even prove that it can scale successfully without tearing itself apart.

No, I don't belive the odd's of BTC's failure have increased over the last 6 months. Neither do I see it's chances of becoming a 'reserve currency' having increased either (I see that as a real 'tail' event in any scenario). It's likely to become 'something'. At the moment I don't honestly know what that 'something' is.

Markets can remain detached from fundamentals much longer than investors can remain solvent and right now, I think we are still in the 'chasm' on that tech adoption chart, with investors desperately trying to find a way to get consumers interested and spending big bucks to do it.
Will they succeed? I don't know. Will blockchains become useful to private businesses - almost certainly. Does this mean that BTC will thrive as a mainstream payment mechanism - I have no idea. Will it take so long that it is superceded ... possibly.

So, no Norway, I am not living in a cave, I am just keeping an open mind and watching things develop without the 'I'm gonna be a millionaire' mantra in my head. I am more interested in seeing how things evolve than in monetary wealth.

Most people are still so dumb that they don't even realise what money is, how it is created, or how they are being robbed. It might take a generation for this sort of change to come about. ie, they die off and are replaced by (hopefully) more intelligent people.

I also believe that whilst there are governments BTC is totally vulnerable to government taxation/confiscation due to the cenralisation of devs and miners. If there is a bail in of depositors on their bank accounts it really is not hard to see how this could be applied equally to BTC if it is seen as 'worthwhile'. IMO best we are still flying under the radar on that day ... and yes, I believe that day is coming

I am not however gonna sit here and preach that anyone is gonna get rich buying BTC now or that it is going to change the world. Crypto is not going away, BTC - who knows. Place your bets ... on one hand it some sort of revolution, on the other it seems like a great way for govs to track everything we do. The latter is not a scenario I will support.

And having worked in the financial servies indusrty I KNOW that we are years away from incorportaing complex derivatives onto 'the blockchain'. Not only would it be technically extrememly difficult, but this is also where all the 'off balance sheet' transactions occur and it will be fought tooth and nail. Stock ownership using satoshis is trivial by comparison. Lets see how Nasdaq Private Market gets on first before drawing any conclusions about how deep 'this blockchain' can permeate.

[bassclef]

No surprise that the bears are out trying to short the rally that is bringing the seven month accumulation and bear market to an end. The problem here for them is that overall, the "team" involved with Bitcoin right now is relatively small after the long bear market and the public disinterest associated with falling prices. The bearish subdivision of this team is even smaller. This makes downward market movements have low volume and without a large effect on price: There is simply not enough selling to overcome whatever demand has been left over and the price tends to drift upwards. Once a little demand is added the price will want to enter a very clean and extended rally.

Think of the bear market as making the bears' team roster smaller and smaller over time as the overarching supply (left over from those who bought during the top distribution and the panic selling that comes along with lower prices) that kept the price down is gradually absorbed at lower and lower prices. A bull market is the opposite and does the same with bulls: Their team gets smaller as the buying climax approaches and demand begins to dry up. This is when most people are the most bullish, but in reality there is tremendous supply being thrown at the market from the informed interests who bought near the bottom and the high prices cannot be sustained. There are important psychological factors at work as to why this happens, e.g. the weak hands who buy near the top and get burned who panic sell during a selling climax at a loss, and the panic buying of those on the sidelines during a buying climax who cannot stand to see their friends getting rich without them.

The market price of any asset is unpredictable to most because they attempt to fit it into their view of what the underlying asset (in this case Bitcoin) should be instead of what it is and think that the fundamentals should always be reflected in the market during price discovery. This is overcomplication. The only reliable market predictions are made by studying supply and demand removing imperfect human opinion, expectation and hyperbole.

There comes a time in every asset and every market where supply has dried up to a degree that the price can rise easily--the end of a bear market. There also comes a time where demand dries up, causing the price to fall easily--the end of a bull market. There are also people who understand this dynamic, long-term relationship, how it effects human emotions and attempt to profit from it. This is largely the reason why many stocks and securiteis do not always reflect their "fundamental" value (whatever that is) so humans attempt to search out positive or negative news to fit their view of why the price is rising or falling.

[phoenix1]

<snip>

Would you mind just posting a link to the pages of the book you continually quote from?
It is painful to hear you repeatedly watch you spew this as gospel, when it is something you have just recently read in a book ( 'Reminisces of a Stock Operator' i believe)
At least give the author some credit.

Your assessment of where we are in the cycle may be absolutely correct, but these are not your thoughts that you are posting they are someone else's 

[Norway]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

I've been watching, Norway.
Don't you read the news? Have you not seen how long price and fundamentals can remain detached (at least 10 years and counting for the global economy)? Why do you believe BTC is so fundamentally different that the same detachment cannot occur for a prolonged period of time? Particualrly considering it is a nascent technology fighting to earn trust. It is yet to even prove that it can scale successfully without tearing itself apart.

No, I don't belive the odd's of BTC's failure have increased over the last 6 months. Neither do I see it's chances of becoming a 'reserve currency' having increased either (I see that as a real 'tail' event in any scenario). It's likely to become 'something'. At the moment I don't honestly know what that 'something' is.

Markets can remain detached from fundamentals much longer than investors can remain solvent and right now, I think we are still in the 'chasm' on that tech adoption chart, with investors desperately trying to find a way to get consumers interested and spending big bucks to do it.
Will they succeed? I don't know. Will blockchains become useful to private businesses - almost certainly. Does this mean that BTC will thrive as a mainstream payment mechanism - I have no idea. Will it take so long that it is superceded ... possibly.

So, no Norway, I am not living in a cave, I am just keeping an open mind and watching things develop without the 'I'm gonna be a millionaire' mantra in my head. I am more interested in seeing how things evolve than in monetary wealth.

Most people are still so dumb that they don't even realise what money is, how it is created, or how they are being robbed. It might take a generation for this sort of change to come about. ie, they die off and are replaced by (hopefully) more intelligent people.

I also believe that whilst there are governments BTC is totally vulnerable to government taxation/confiscation due to the cenralisation of devs and miners. If there is a bail in of depositors on their bank accounts it really is not hard to see how this could be applied equally to BTC if it is seen as 'worthwhile'. IMO best we are still flying under the radar on that day ... and yes, I believe that day is coming

I am not however gonna sit here and preach that anyone is gonna get rich buying BTC now or that it is going to change the world. Crypto is not going away, BTC - who knows. Place your bets ... on one hand it some sort of revolution, on the other it seems like a great way for govs to track everything we do. The latter is not a scenario I will support.

Thanks for your answer, sir.

I agree that price and fundamentals can be detatched over long periods of time. In the case of stock markets etc, it's usually overpriced. In the case of bitcoin, it's very underpriced at the current level. Speculation is always based on future potential and the odds of getting there. My math model is simplified and is ment as a tool where the user have to make his own probability matrix to calculate his own expectation value.

Personally, I don't think the outcome of the blocksize debate will matter much. It's just a question of when and how fast adoption can grow.

Seems to me that you think something else have a good chance of replacing bitcoin. But I would give bitcoin a 99% chance to succeed compared to alternatives. This is where your bitcoin hands are getting weak compared to mine.

(And yessss! I will be a millionaire from tiny investments!!!!!!) 

[bassclef]

<snip>

Would you mind just posting a link to the pages of the book you continually quote from?
It is painful to hear you repeatedly watch you spew this as gospel, when it is something you have just recently read in a book ( 'Reminisces of a Stock Operator' i believe)
At least give the author some credit.

Your assessment of where we are in the cycle may be absolutely correct, but these are not your thoughts that you are posting they are someone else's  

These thoughts are from a collection of texts written by Charles Dow, Richard Wyckoff, Edwin LeFevre, Hank Pruden, Tom Williams and many others... also they are from my own years of experience in trading and pattern recognition and analysis. Most good ideas originate from others, don't they? When I teach my students the structure of Mozart symphonies or perform in an opera I do not claim to have originated the idea of western musical analysis, chord structure or the principles of human vocal acoustics and production that originated hundreds of years ago, nor do I have to quote them and provide sources to validate the performance. That's ridiculous.

But yes, just for you, just because you woke up on the wrong side of the bed I'll be sure to send an annotated bibliography just as soon as possible.

[marcus_of_augustus]

test

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[BlackSpidy]

I did the math 5 months ago. Posted it here before, but I think it's time to do it again:

Oh! You're they guy that posted that about 3 times! Hey! So it's been five months? Wow, it feels so long ago. Now I know so much more, I've gained so much from just dicking around here. I am convinced that I will be a millionaire (or hundred-thousandaire) thanks to you guys. Pizza party at my place in 2040!

[phoenix1]

<snip>

Would you mind just posting a link to the pages of the book you continually quote from?
It is painful to hear you repeatedly watch you spew this as gospel, when it is something you have just recently read in a book ( 'Reminisces of a Stock Operator' i believe)
At least give the author some credit.

Your assessment of where we are in the cycle may be absolutely correct, but these are not your thoughts that you are posting they are someone else's  

These thoughts are from a collection of texts written by Charles Dow, Richard Wyckoff, Edwin LeFevre, Hank Pruden, Tom Williams and many others... also they are from my own years of experience in trading and pattern recognition and analysis. Most good ideas originate from others, don't they? When I teach my students the structure of Mozart symphonies or perform in an opera I do not claim to have originated the idea of western musical analysis, chord structure or the principles of human vocal acoustics and production that originated hundreds of years ago, nor do I have to quote them and provide sources to validate the performance. That's ridiculous.

But yes, just for you, just because you woke up on the wrong side of the bed I'll be sure to send an annotated bibliography just as soon as possible.

LOL!!

But you present yourself as some kind of trading guru ... why not have a thread with your predictions if you are that good, rather than posting what read like chapters from a book ? I am not sure they have 'guru' status here, but it seems like that is what you are after, so go for it, on your own in your own 'guru thread'.

EDIT: Nice to see you humbly presenting yourself as a musical guru too now  

UBER LOL :

I'm new to TA, but I find there needs to be at least 2 (or more) strong indicators to confirm a change. And some work better than others at different times.

I'm realizing that BTC is a very emotionally-driven market right now, and managing to control my own emotions while making predictions is difficult.

YEARS of experience ... hmmm ... I guess 2 is more than 1 ...
I wonder what you really teach your students about Mozart, cos it sounds like you are spewing BS now. And perhaps 'Opera' is just the church choir  
Delusions of grandeur much ...

EDIT : All of that, including my initial post was totally unnecesary

[Norway]

snip

Oh! You're they guy that posted that about 3 times! Hey! So it's been five months? Wow, it feels so long ago. Now I know so much more, I've gained so much from just dicking around here. I am convinced that I will be a millionaire (or hundred-thousandaire) thanks to you guys. Pizza party at my place in 2040!

Lol, I promise not to post it anymore! (I have actually had 9000 views of my graphs now. Insane!)
The reason I post it, is because so many people here base their expectation of bitcoins future value on the trade log of the past (bitcoinwisdom.com).
But I'll come to your party in 2040!

[phoenix1]

Seems to me that you think something else have a good chance of replacing bitcoin. But I would give bitcoin a 99% chance to succeed compared to alternatives. This is where your bitcoin hands are getting weak compared to mine.

And yessss! I will be a millionaire from tiny investments!!!!!!

Meh, you stil don't get me
Weak hands, strong hands, all relative terms used here to great psychological effect to shame people who sell and make people who hold (mostly those who are new and underwater) feel brave and good about themselves for not selling at higher prices. Sure, they exist, but the terms are used in the most manipulative way here to try and 'create' 'weak' hands and 'strong' hands to serve the interests of others - in reality all are weak when manipulated that way  

If you get rich off a small investment in BTC, I will sure as hell be there with you tho  

[Brewins]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

Consumers Say Bitcoin More Inconvenient Than Checks

http://www.coindesk.com/survey-consumers-bitcoin-inconvenient-checks/



Too many good news, except ones about btc acceptance from end user consumers

[Norway]

A bit Captain Obvious, isn't it? lol  

Hmm. I often wonder...

Me too  
After a certain amount of Kool-aid, for some, it seems there is no turning back ...

It's just so weired to me. Where have you been the last six months, phoenix1? Don't you read the news? Can't you see how big bucks are entering the scene? How finance are looking at bitcoin today? Today, I get bank CEOs to attend my bitcoin meetups. Do you really believe the odds for bitcoins failiure have increased the last months? (And please, watch the clip i posted from American Bankers Conference to get updated on the perimissioned / non permissioned ledgers debate in banking industry.)

Consumers Say Bitcoin More Inconvenient Than Checks

http://www.coindesk.com/survey-consumers-bitcoin-inconvenient-checks/

Too many good news, except ones about btc acceptance from end user consumers

I never said consumers have adopted it yet, did I? It's still difficult to secure and use bitcoin. But it's going in the right direction. I hope that article didn't make you loose faith.

EDIT: This new clip about how "easy" bitcoin is to use...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5o2T4DF0iSA

...reminds me of this clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4APcgsRdW6w

[ssmc2]

<snip>

Would you mind just posting a link to the pages of the book you continually quote from?
It is painful to hear you repeatedly watch you spew this as gospel, when it is something you have just recently read in a book ( 'Reminisces of a Stock Operator' i believe)
At least give the author some credit.

Your assessment of where we are in the cycle may be absolutely correct, but these are not your thoughts that you are posting they are someone else's  

These thoughts are from a collection of texts written by Charles Dow, Richard Wyckoff, Edwin LeFevre, Hank Pruden, Tom Williams and many others... also they are from my own years of experience in trading and pattern recognition and analysis. Most good ideas originate from others, don't they? When I teach my students the structure of Mozart symphonies or perform in an opera I do not claim to have originated the idea of western musical analysis, chord structure or the principles of human vocal acoustics and production that originated hundreds of years ago, nor do I have to quote them and provide sources to validate the performance. That's ridiculous.

But yes, just for you, just because you woke up on the wrong side of the bed I'll be sure to send an annotated bibliography just as soon as possible.

LMAO

[BrewCrewFan]

Well some fuq is trying to keep the price down look at those walls goin up to 290 on finex. Just moved the 500 coin one down ....derp he removed half again.

[Brewins]

Spend a lot of money keeping the price down for several months so he can buy lots of bitcoin with another lot of money.

Makes sense

[BrewCrewFan]

Spend a lot of money keeping the price down for several months so he can buy lots of bitcoin with another lot of money.

Makes sense

The thing I always question now with the whole finex thing is how many coins do these people actually "own" and not borrow.