Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

Three halving from now.

The bulltrolling is strong today. We must be headed back down.

Just kidding.

No but seriously.

I'm a financial wizard

[suda123]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

[ChartBuddy]

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[Morecoin Freeman]

D U M P 

[Tzupy]

A new and intriguing story, it seems that DPR had another wallet that hasn't yet been accessed by the feds:
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/silk-road-figure-variety-jones-claims-corrupt-fbi-agent-making-threats/
If the story is true and wallet will be accessed, we could expect a significant seller pressure, so this is worth keeping an eye on.

[gentlemand]

A new and intriguing story, it seems that DPR had another wallet that hasn't yet been accessed by the feds:

I was always a little confused by the coin stats. I thought there were several hundred thousand more of Ross's personal coins. The coins that were sold were SR's coins, not his. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention. Looks like ignorance being bliss has finally paid off.

[ChartBuddy]

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[Muttley]

Nice charts ...

[ChartBuddy]

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[aztecminer]

i heard bitfinex 5000btc buy wall went away ..

[emelac]

A new and intriguing story, it seems that DPR had another wallet that hasn't yet been accessed by the feds:

I was always a little confused by the coin stats. I thought there were several hundred thousand more of Ross's personal coins. The coins that were sold were SR's coins, not his. Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention. Looks like ignorance being bliss has finally paid off.

The first auction was for the SR's coins. Sometime after that DPR/Ulbricht agreed to hand over his coins to the feds and let them put them up for auction. The deal was if he won his case he could keep the auction money, but if he lost the feds could keep the auction money. I think the only coins the feds found belonging to DPR/Ulbricht were on his laptop. He might have had other coins hidden elsewhere that only he knows about.

[gentlemand]

The first auction was for the SR's coins. Sometime after that DPR/Ulbricht agreed to hand over his coins to the feds and let them put them up for auction. The deal was if he won his case he could keep the auction money, but if he lost the feds could keep the auction money. I think the only coins the feds found belonging to DPR/Ulbricht were on his laptop. He might have had other coins hidden elsewhere that only he knows about.

That makes sense. I was under the impression that 40 something thousand coins belonged to SR customers and the rest were Ross's. But there was often a 600,000 coin figure thrown around too. Maybe that was overall turnover or something.

[ChartBuddy]

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

Seems the price still can't breach & stay above 240 then, disappointing. I feel the price is at a bit of a croassroads now, does it nose dive to 220 & maybe less or 260 or above. I wouldn't even like to try & guess.

Anybody got a hunch?

[adamstgBit]

Seems the price still can't breach & stay above 240 then, disappointing. I feel the price is at a bit of a croassroads now, does it nose dive to 220 & maybe less or 260 or above. I wouldn't even like to try & guess.

Anybody got a hunch?

sub 200$ coins coming soon!

everyone send lots of money and wait for 199.9$

[ChartBuddy]

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[Peter R]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Didn't know we were still using this forum

Haha well sometimes I check out the ol' Wall Observer for nostalgic reasons.

To the other readers here: I believe many of the older posters no longer feel welcome at BitcoinTalk after the Forum Administration locked the "Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP" thread.

If readers are wondering where cypherdoc, solex, sickpig, awemany, theZerg, Justus Ranvier, Inca, molecular, AdrianX, Zanglebert Bingledack, chmod755, Erdogan, Ivanhow, Melbustus, lunarboy, humanitee, Zarathustra, rocks and others are, well please come over and say hi:

https://bitco.in/forum

[hdbuck]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Didn't know we were still using this forum

Haha well sometimes I check out the ol' Wall Observer for nostalgic reasons.

To the other readers here: I believe many of the older posters no longer feel welcome at BitcoinTalk after the Forum Administration locked the "Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP" thread.

If readers are wondering where cypherdoc, solex, sickpig, awemany, theZerg, Justus Ranvier, Inca, molecular, AdrianX, Zanglebert Bingledack, chmod755, Erdogan, Ivanhow, Melbustus, lunarboy, humanitee, Zarathustra, rocks and others are, well please come over and say hi:

https://bitco.in/forum

[ChartBuddy]

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[Peter R]

I just learned about this cool idea where anyone can donate to a "pot" and then a fraction of the pot gets paid out (by a bot) to the coinbase address of each BIP101 block found.  As the pot gets bigger, miners can see how much more they could be earning per block by signalling support for BIP101.

https://cryptoplay.net/vote/

The site is managed by /u/NxtChg from reddit.  We've been discussing potential improvements with him here.

I think this is a great idea and it would be good to get more publicity for this effort.  If the pot got to over 10 BTC, then it would pay out 1 BTC per BIP101 block; a 1 BTC advantage per block would certainly get me thinking about signalling support for BIP101 if I were an indifferent miner.