Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[practicaldreamer]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

[JorgeStolfi]

I have an immensely important question I want to ask since I was just told something, why does the price move the way it does?it goes up by 10-20$s then completely stops. And how much does it take to make it to 10$s plus?

Looking at the daily price and volume at Huobi, OKCoin, and other exchanges, I can see

(1) A gradual "exponential" increase in volume and price from about 2015-09-20 to the peak (~3350 CNY) on 11-04;
(2) A tumbling price and volume drop between 11-04 and 11-24 (down to ~2050 CNY);
(3) A very sharp increase in volume to a record high value on 11-24, that persisted until now; and a corresponding rally in price, by a rapid steady rise broken by several large jumps (to ~3150 CNY).

There was a partial crash today, to ~2800 CNY, but it is not clear yet how it will end.

There seems to be no certain explanation for these moves.  (And it seems that no one wants to find out...)

My best candidate explanation for (1) is still the bitcoin-based MMM ponzi and copycats, mostly in China; amplified by day-trader speculation.  The dates seem to match, the ponzi can easily move that amount of money, and the gradual "exponential" growth is consistent with the demand for bitcoins spreading among a new population of  by "infection".

The crash (2) would then be the speculators dumping their coins when they realized that the primary demand had leveled off.   Perhaps the ponzi saturated by 11-04, or participants ("lucky victims" and organizers) started to sell the bitcoins that they received.  

The new rally (3) could be due to the same cause as (1); however, considering the much higher volume and the way it grew (suddenly rather than gradually), the cause is probably different.

Rally (3) may have been due to the crackdown by the Chinese government on the use of the Chinese state credit/debit card (UnionPay) to export cash for gambling and other purposes.  The abuse seemed to be pervasive in Macau, the Las Vegas of China, which has a somewhat independent economy (like Hong Kong). Reports say that Mainland gamblers would go to Macau, pretend to buy merchandise at local pawn shops with the card, then pretend to return it for a cash refund (minus the shop's commission).  That way they could bypass the card's limit on cash withdrawal.  If that loophole was suddenly closed, it seems possible that the gamblers switched en masse to bitcoin.  

A sudden jump in the price must be due to single person buying or selling a large amount of bitcoin in a short time interval.  If the above explanation is correct, those may be exceptionally wealthy people trying to move their money out, or perhaps clandestine money transmitters providing that service for many smaller clients.  Either way, the jumps seem to indicate that the price is determined by a relatively small number of players.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Hyperjacked]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

Well enjoy making your curry...

[chesthing]

I have an immensely important question I want to ask since I was just told something, why does the price move the way it does?it goes up by 10-20$s then completely stops. And how much does it take to make it to 10$s plus?

Looking at the daily price and volume at Huobi, OKCoin, and other exchanges, I can see

(1) A gradual "exponential" increase in volume and price from about 2015-09-20 to the peak (~3350 CNY) on 11-04;
(2) A tumbling price and volume drop between 11-04 and 11-24 (down to ~2050 CNY);
(3) A very sharp increase in volume to a record high value on 11-24, that persisted until now; and a corresponding rally in price, by a rapid steady rise broken by several large jumps (to ~3150 CNY).

There was a partial crash today, to ~2800 CNY, but it is not clear yet how it will end.

There seems to be no certain explanation for these moves.  (And it seems that no one wants to find out...)

My best candidate explanation for (1) is still the bitcoin-based MMM ponzi and copycats, mostly in China; amplified by day-trader speculation.  The dates seem to match, the ponzi can easily move that amount of money, and the gradual "exponential" growth is consistent with the demand for bitcoins spreading among a new population of  by "infection".

The crash (2) would then be the speculators dumping their coins when they realized that the primary demand had leveled off.   Perhaps the ponzi saturated by 11-04, or participants ("lucky victims" and organizers) started to sell the bitcoins that they received.  

The new rally (3) could be due to the same cause as (1); however, considering the much higher volume and the way it grew (suddenly rather than gradually), the cause is probably different.

Rally (3) may have been due to the crackdown by the Chinese government on the use of the Chinese state credit/debit card (UnionPay) to export cash for gambling and other purposes.  The abuse seemed to be pervasive in Macau, the Las Vegas of China, which has a somewhat independent economy (like Hong Kong). Reports say that Mainland gamblers would go to Macau, pretend to buy merchandise at local pawn shops with the card, then pretend to return it for a cash refund (minus the shop's commission).  That way they could bypass the card's limit on cash withdrawal.  If that loophole was suddenly closed, it seems possible that the gamblers switched en masse to bitcoin.  

A sudden jump in the price must be due to single person buying or selling a large amount of bitcoin in a short time interval.  If the above explanation is correct, those may be exceptionally wealthy people trying to move their money out, or perhaps clandestine money transmitters providing that service for many smaller clients.  Either way, the jumps seem to indicate that the price is determined by a relatively small number of players.

Your putting too much thought into this. People had a whole year to accumulate bitcoins in the $2xx range, whenever the price is in the mid $400s they can sell and double their money, and for every coin they sell they end up with a free one. It's gonna be a rough road to get past $500 because of this, but I think it will happen.

[peonminer]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

Well enjoy making your curry...

Obviously a stoner Jap.
Father is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takaaki_Kajita eh?
Curry at 3AM eh?

I bet when you ask your dad why he won the Nobel Prize, he'll tell you he did it for the lulz.



Jorge, I would suggest you read this:

http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/

Also, this:

http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

Someone is sticking their Willy all up in Huobi. She's so happy to have him. Especially when the massive swings don't match the volume. That's when you really feel the Willy up in her.

[Hyperjacked]

And you're debating with an unrepenting troll  

He may well be - but I have to say that       a) stuff like this is good entertainment ( in a slightly bored and listless kind of way) on an early Saturday evening whilst I'm preparing a curry, and            
      b) I've got to agree with the troll in this particular case. I've been following this thread long enough to know that the only ones to have made real gains are holders. Calculated risk ? In a rigged market ?

BTW - my Dad was the only Heavyweight Champion of the World to receive the Noble Prize for Physics. Where does that put my argument, relative to yours ?


Anyhow, on with the curry.

As you were.

Well enjoy making your curry...

Obviously a stoner Jap.
Father was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takaaki_Kajita eh?
Curry at 3AM eh?

I bet when you ask your dad why he won the Nobel Prize, he'll tell you he did it for the lulz.

You might be on to something...

Now my Dad just twists fatties and does volunteer work as a botanist in Arizona...

The funny thing is when I discussed BTC with him years ago he looked at me as if I had two heads.

[peonminer]

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/537301/spiders-ingest-nanotubes-then-weave-silk-reinforced-with-carbon/

Alchemy at its modern day finest. Thanks for this link. It's a good read. Now if they could add some of this to the pump strings.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/537301/spiders-ingest-nanotubes-then-weave-silk-reinforced-with-carbon/

Alchemy at its modern day finest. Thanks for this link. It's a good read. Now if they could add some of this to the pump strings.

moon?

[ssmc2]

http://blog.bosch-si.com/categories/business-models/2015/12/21-inc-s-bitcoin-mining-asics-pocket-money-bosch-devices/

This is heavy stuff

[yefi]

Jorge, I would suggest you read this:

Because he's never heard of that before...

[peonminer]

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/537301/spiders-ingest-nanotubes-then-weave-silk-reinforced-with-carbon/

Alchemy at its modern day finest. Thanks for this link. It's a good read. Now if they could add some of this to the pump strings.

moon?

I'm telling ya! I've been interested in the elevator to space idea since Google was discussing it.

[adamstgBit]

SELL SELL SELL!!!

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. Apparently the recent price movements were not related to the news about Craig Wright.  

The guy has been established to be a fraudster who planted lots of false evidence about other things, and his knowledge of computer science seems to be very limited.  Therefore, the evidence that he is Satoshi is likely to be faked as well.

It seems that the main target of his scams was the Australian government.  He created a tangled web of companies that closed various "research" contracts with each other, amounting to more than 100 M AUD; and then he used those contracts to get maybe 50 M AUD or more from government research incentive programs.  He may have defrauded private investors as well.  

He claimed that many of those multimillion contracts were paid in bitcoin; which may have been just an excuse for the lack of bank records proving that the companies had that money to begin with, and that the payments were real.  That may help explain why he started to plant clues that he was Satoshi, including backdated blog posts and a supposedly leaked contract with a deceased American colleague that established an offshore trust fund with 1.1 M BTC, to be locked up until 2020. (But there are several other possible explanations for why he wanted to be identified with Satoshi.)

In particular, he claimed to own the 15th largest supercomputer in the world, the largest privately held one.  He even gave (totally hilarious) masters-level lectures on supercomputer programming at his university, which included lab exercises with remote access to an "access node" of his supercomputer.  He also posted a video on YouTube where he discused his supercomputer and showed an intern working on some visual node management software.  However no one has seen that machine, not even a photograph of it.  On his company's website there was a letter from SGI that boasted the use of SGI hardware in his supercomputer; however, SGI denied ever having any contact with him or his company, and knew of no such supercomputer.

The final leak of "evidence" seems to have happened when the Australian Tax Office had finally realized the extent of the scam and was about to squash him.  It seems that he fled the country just in the nick or time.  Recently he somehow got himself invited to a panel on cryptocurrencies witn Nick Szabo, Trace Mayer, and other guys.  He spoke via Skype, claiming to be in London with his family.  Like the last emails by Danny Brewster of Neo&Bee, that may have been an attempt to divert the ATO investigations to the wrong place...

[peonminer]

Convergence scheduled for 2:30PM-4:30PM CST:



The floors are growing stronger.



All aboardddddd!!!!

[Omikifuse]

Is this a bear trap or a bull trap ?

Where are we heading?

[noobtrader]

I do wonder if the real satoshi do it for academic interest only and very skeptical of its longterm success.

PS. Apparently the recent price movements were not related to the news about Craig Wright.  

The guy has been established to be a fraudster who planted lots of false evidence about other things, and his knowledge of computer science seems to be very limited.  Therefore, the evidence that he is Satoshi is likely to be faked as well.

It seems that the main target of his scams was the Australian government.  He created a tangled web of companies that closed various "research" contracts with each other, amounting to more than 100 M AUD; and then he used those contracts to get maybe 50 M AUD or more from government research incentive programs.  He may have defrauded private investors as well.  

He claimed that many of those multimillion contracts were paid in bitcoin; which may have been just an excuse for the lack of bank records proving that the companies had that money to begin with, and that the payments were real.  That may help explain why he started to plant clues that he was Satoshi, including backdated blog posts and a supposedly leaked contract with a deceased American colleague that established an offshore trust fund with 1.1 M BTC, to be locked up until 2020. (But there are several other possible explanations for why he wanted to be identified with Satoshi.)

In particular, he claimed to own the 15th largest supercomputer in the world, the largest privately held one.  He even gave (totally hilarious) masters-level lectures on supercomputer programming at his university, which included lab exercises with remote access to an "access node" of his supercomputer.  He also posted a video on YouTube where he discused his supercomputer and showed an intern working on some visual node management software.  However no one has seen that machine, not even a photograph of it.  On his company's website there was a letter from SGI that boasted the use of SGI hardware in his supercomputer; however, SGI denied ever having any contact with him or his company, and knew of no such supercomputer.

The final leak of "evidence" seems to have happened when the Australian Tax Office had finally realized the extent of the scam and was about to squash him.  It seems that he fled the country just in the nick or time.  Recently he somehow got himself invited to a panel on cryptocurrencies witn Nick Szabo, Trace Mayer, and other guys.  He spoke via Skype, claiming to be in London with his family.  Like the last emails by Danny Brewster of Neo&Bee, that may have been an attempt to divert the ATO investigations to the wrong place...

[QuestionAuthority]

You seem to have a clue

I am a speculator just as we all are. If I had access to control a trust fund for a percentage commission, I would be a much happier speculator.

With that said, I am rooting for a massive $600 attempt and testing. The $500-$600 correction in the middle (towards the top) will be more violent than the one between $400-$500. Weak hands will show. Strong hands will be hitting like fight club.

Thanks, I guess I'll just plan my sell off on a date instead of a dollar mark. I'll buy back sometime next year and will have made a tidy little profit for Christmas spending. If it continues to rise then buying back next year won't hurt me, my profit will just be less. If the price drops next year then I'll make even more money waiting for it to go up again.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, I would suggest you read this:
http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/
Also, this:
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

Someone is sticking their Willy all up in Huobi. She's so happy to have him. Especially when the massive swings don't match the volume. That's when you really feel the Willy up in her.

I have read those reports and commented on them several times.  It is fairly certain that there was a Willy Bot buying tons of coins at MtGOX.  However, comparison of prices during that rally tells me that it was not led by MtGOX, but rather by the Chinese exchanges: chiefly Huobi and OKCoin, that had opened in Beijing only a few months before, and also BTC-China in Shanghai.  That is confirmed by articles in mainstream media (not bitcoin sites) that described firsthand who were the new bitcoin traders responsible for that huge surge of demand. 

So, Willy Bot was probably doing arbitrage: buying cheap bitcoins at MtGOX to sell in those Chinese exchanges, where the price was significantly higher.  Quite likely it was buying them with non-existent dollars, with or without Mark's involvement; and that may be the immediate explanation of what happened to the missing 660'000 BTC.

It is possible that this rally is due to a Willy Megatron in the Chinese exchanges, buying coins from other clients with non-existent money; and that those exchanges are about to go the MtGOX way.  But a consequence of the bot's operation was that Mark did not have enough money or BTC at hand to honor the withdrawals of those clients who sold their coins to Willy, and therefore had to stall withdrawals.  I have not seen any claims that OKCoin or Huobi are doing the same.  But let's watch.