Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.

Out of curiosity then, how do you suggest to deal with it? Entirely discard it in the analysis?

Completely ignoring it seems quite excessive to me, and maybe just as counterproductive as treating it as if it were 100% 'real'.

Fun Riddle:
You are a prisoner, in a cell, and you wanna be free. Free to ride your machines without being hassled by The Man.
The cell has two doors, each with a guard.
One of the doors leads to freedom, the other to the chopping block.
You are allowed to ask one of the guards one, and only one, question.
One of the guards is always truthful, the other always lies.*
What is the question to ask?
*Well, not always. Actually, they're just regular people, like you and I. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they don't.

"What would the other guard say?"

*Introducing Tobogganed Medallions Nonacceptance Skegs?

[suda123]

hmmmmmmhmmmmm

[peonminer]

Slow but steady demand-driven price growth. Wonderful.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Thinking isn't really one of my stronger qualities.

[oda.krell]

Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.

Out of curiosity then, how do you suggest to deal with it? Entirely discard it in the analysis?

Completely ignoring it seems quite excessive to me, and maybe just as counterproductive as treating it as if it were 100% 'real'.

Fun Riddle:
You are a prisoner, in a cell, and you wanna be free. Free to ride your machines without being hassled by The Man.
The cell has two doors, each with a guard.
One of the doors leads to freedom, the other to the chopping block.
You are allowed to ask one of the guards one, and only one, question.
One of the guards is always truthful, the other always lies.*
What is the question to ask?
*Well, not always. Actually, they're just regular people, like you and I. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they don't.

@Fatman: Whew, thanks, I thought I was losing it.

...
Can I get a 'no, no it isn't!!!1!'? It's CATO play time, don't make me jump on you keyboard. I'll do it.

~more time passes~

-CATO, my little yellow friend, I am home! -Dr. Clouseau

Without the footnote -- the "always" case -- and under a number of basic assumptions (e.g. how exactly you formally treat "lying"), in other words: given the result of the most common 'reasoning towards an interpretation' process, this reduces to the classical Boolos / Labyrinth puzzle, so: "If I ask the other guy which door leads to freedom, what would he tell me?", then pick the other door for freedom.

Assuming that they sometimes tell the truth, sometimes don't, I suppose this turns into a probabilistic version of the above puzzle. Interesting case, never thought of that, but looks like it requires the assumption that you (a) either know that one of the two is more likely to tell the truth than the other, or (b) know their combined likelihood to tell the truth. In that case, it seems you can maximize your chance to get out, but cannot guarantee it.

Without any such knowledge, it's  as good as picking a door at random.

* * *

Now, how does any of that relate to CNY volume?

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it 

[Tzupy]

Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.

Thinking is kinda what we do here now. Old-timer.

Calling me 'old timer' only adds to my point here. Nearly two years ago I left, when all of this Chinese bs was going on, and when I came back I expected was ample time for the Chinese to be completely capitulated and out of the market, and that that fake CNY volume would be completely debunked. In fact it is well known that the CNY volume is fake and it was even way back then. Coindesk doesn't even include those exchanges in it's calculation. USD and adoption are supposed to be running the show now, but here we still have jokers talking about how 'the imaginary chinese whale dumped his 80,000btc/cny on Huobi'.

Except that it's not USD and adoption running the show, if it were so then price would be sub 200$.
The largely fake Chinese volume, with apparently Huobi leading, is driving the price.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it 

Totally organic, just the way Lambie likes it.

[oda.krell]

@CATO

Just saw your follow up post... Looks like you're equating "truthfulness" with "randomness" - that's quite an assumption.

For example (simplifying), you could treat one volume as (mostly) representing "demand", and the other as (mostly) representing "the appearance of demand". If you could correctly tell which it is (not necessarily always, but with more certainty than by pure chance),  the latter volume contains information again you could include in your model.

Not saying that's the way to go, but just to show that "somewhat predictably lying" is still information, even if the output has to be put through a different function than non-lying information


(EDIT) Also, that was one of the fastest ignores, @^

[ssmc2]

Some of you (bears) need to accept we are now in BULL mode. For the next few years at least. So, yes we will have dips and corrections, but the general trend is now- UP. Don't fight the trend. 

[julian071]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it 

Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it 

Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?

Years of staring at the charts, combined with blind luck   .

[julian071]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it 

Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?

Years of staring at the charts, combined with blind luck   .

Lol. OK thx =D

[peonminer]

Care for some roasted lamb, anyone?

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it  

Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?

Years of staring at the charts, combined with blind luck   .

Lol. OK thx =D

Don't think we are done yet by the way, I am guessing this goes to 445-450.

[becoin]

Looks like it wants to make a small jump up

nailed it 

Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?

It's easy. The bear whale will try to buy back all the bitcoins they sold out yesterday before Monday. It is not possible without new top though.
 

[billyjoeallen]

so a 500 coin pump causes a $5 price bump. At that rate, it would take only 3 million $ to get to $500 and probably ~ 10 million bucks to do it world wide. Get at it, bulls. You know you've been waiting all weekend for your discount, so BUY BUY BUY because new fiat gets to the exchanges when the banks open tomorrow.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Patel]

Patiently waiting for 500