Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

'Bitcoin is dead'

B-b-b-but 415 USD now

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin was bound to go back to $400.- I didn't expected this rise so fast, i thought a test $350 ore so then to $400.

[findftp]

You guys are focusing to much on USDBTC

Looks a bit like BTC/oil

[CuntChocula]

@smooth you are arguing with the multi-account house troll formerly known as NotLambchops (NLC).

@smooth: Fatman's really fat. Just so u know.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/3729/1215/1600/fat.1.jpg

[8up]

You guys are focusing to much on USDBTC

Looks a bit like BTC/oil

Great find. It is to be expacted, that the dollar (cash) is the safe heaven in financial turmoil. Measuring bitcoin (only) against "the best" seems a little bit unfair.

[smooth]

I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch? 

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?

The market.

Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?

If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.

90% was chosen at random. Let's say I own 5%, and keep in in cold storage, as a "store of value." How do I make my voice count?
Keep in mind, you edited out the important part:

<>If I'm just holding the coin (not solding), why do my wishes matter to the miners (I do not buy, only hodl)? To the exchanges (I do not trade, only hodl)?

According to your reasoning, by not trading (hodling the coin in cold storage), I effectively make myself irrelevant. Correct?

Hell no, holding is what gives it value.

Assuming anyone else wants to buy, they can only buy from miners which is a limited supply. Welcome moon.

If no one else wants to buy any sort of Bitcoin, then you're screwed. Same as would happen tomorrow if we woke up and no one wanted to buy Bitcoin without a fork. No guarantee that won't happen.

If you want guaranteed store of value, independent of what other people value, too fucking bad. About the best you can do is buy a chocolate bar, at least you can eat it.

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.

You claim: "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [will be implemented]."
I ask: Via what mechanism?
You reply: The market, dur!
I ask: What does that mean? I hold 5%, I don't trade it, what mechanisms are available to me to make my opinion count?
Sure, I can try to sell my hodlings, but only post factum. The "economic majority" is not the BTC long-term hodlers, but the*fiat hodlers*, those willing to *buy* BTC.
The miners aren't selling BTC to me, they're selling BTC to people with fiat, those are the opinions that matter, not mine (I'm not buying, remember?)
The interests of buyers != the interests of hodlers != interests of miners.

Those same participants (fiat buyers, BTC holders/speculators, miners, merchants, users, etc.) are there now, determining the value of the coins you hold.

All of those participants will be there later, determining the value of the coins you hold.

If you disagree with the economic majority (market consensus) then by definition you trade, and thereby your opinion matters. If you don't trade, then your opinion matches the market consensus.

I'm gonna try ELY5:

I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).

I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter:  Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.

@oda.krell: feel free to field this.

Your whole example is whack because trading markets and voting are two different things. Fail.

Of course they're different things. It's what grownups call an analogy. ELY5 clearly over your head, I'll shoot for ELY3, buddy.

If there enough people (economic majority) who want a fork, the fork is going to happen, because it only takes a Gavin or a Mike or a Jon to create one and then it is up to the market whether to put value behind it or not.

If Gavin/Mike/Jon create a fork and no economic value is behind it (XT for example), the fork will whither and die, either before or after birth.

Economic value for miners != economic value for hodlers ("economic majority").  Miners don't care how they make their filthy fiat, by mining 25 coins & selling those @$400, or by mining 50 coins, and selling them @$200. Hodlers care what their coins are worth tho.
Get it, Tiger?

In the case you described, your coins are worth the same too, just like the miners. Your 25 coins become 50 (25 Gavcoins@200 + 25 Gregcoins@200). No change here. Keep trying.

[aztecminer]

Bitcoin was bound to go back to $400.- I didn't expected this rise so fast, i thought a test $350 ore so then to $400.

they cant go to 350.00, they can be hardballed there.

[CuntChocula]

I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch?  

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?

The market.

Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?

If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.

90% was chosen at random. Let's say I own 5%, and keep in in cold storage, as a "store of value." How do I make my voice count?
Keep in mind, you edited out the important part:

<>If I'm just holding the coin (not solding), why do my wishes matter to the miners (I do not buy, only hodl)? To the exchanges (I do not trade, only hodl)?

According to your reasoning, by not trading (hodling the coin in cold storage), I effectively make myself irrelevant. Correct?

Hell no, holding is what gives it value.

Assuming anyone else wants to buy, they can only buy from miners which is a limited supply. Welcome moon.

If no one else wants to buy any sort of Bitcoin, then you're screwed. Same as would happen tomorrow if we woke up and no one wanted to buy Bitcoin without a fork. No guarantee that won't happen.

If you want guaranteed store of value, independent of what other people value, too fucking bad. About the best you can do is buy a chocolate bar, at least you can eat it.

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.

You claim: "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [will be implemented]."
I ask: Via what mechanism?
You reply: The market, dur!
I ask: What does that mean? I hold 5%, I don't trade it, what mechanisms are available to me to make my opinion count?
Sure, I can try to sell my hodlings, but only post factum. The "economic majority" is not the BTC long-term hodlers, but the*fiat hodlers*, those willing to *buy* BTC.
The miners aren't selling BTC to me, they're selling BTC to people with fiat, those are the opinions that matter, not mine (I'm not buying, remember?)
The interests of buyers != the interests of hodlers != interests of miners.

Those same participants (fiat buyers, BTC holders/speculators, miners, merchants, users, etc.) are there now, determining the value of the coins you hold.

All of those participants will be there later, determining the value of the coins you hold.

If you disagree with the economic majority (market consensus) then by definition you trade, and thereby your opinion matters. If you don't trade, then your opinion matches the market consensus.

I'm gonna try ELY5:

I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).

I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter:  Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.

@oda.krell: feel free to field this.

Your whole example is whack because trading markets and voting are two different things. Fail.

Of course they're different things. It's what grownups call an analogy. ELY5 clearly over your head, I'll shoot for ELY3, buddy.

If there enough people (economic majority) who want a fork, the fork is going to happen, because it only takes a Gavin or a Mike or a Jon to create one and then it is up to the market whether to put value behind it or not.

If Gavin/Mike/Jon create a fork and no economic value is behind it (XT for example), the fork will whither and die, either before or after birth.

Economic value for miners != economic value for hodlers ("economic majority").  Miners don't care how they make their filthy fiat, by mining 25 coins & selling those @$400, or by mining 50 coins, and selling them @$200. Hodlers care what their coins are worth tho.
Get it, Tiger?

In the case you described, holders have the same value too. Your 25 coins become 50 (25 Gavcoins + 25 Gregcoins). No change here. Keep trying.

Huh? I'm talking about a fork which would delay the reward halving (or double the block reward).

[adamstgBit]

hello bitcoin land
it's some very nice weather we are having this morning.
anyway,
is there a date set by bitcoinclassic for there fork?

will the dev's have their implementation which gives about 4x capacity to the network be ready in time before bitcoinclassic forks?

if not, will poeple switch to bitcoin classic's 2MB right away even if core is on the verge of a breakthrough?


only time will tell, i guess.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

People's Bank of China apparently is saying they may issue a digital currency. I don't know why this would be good news for Bitcoin. It's a massive potential competitor and the Commies may want to help it by discouraging Bitcoin.

Worst case scenario, they nationalize the Chinese mines for use with their currency.

You come up with some doosies

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoin was bound to go back to $400.- I didn't expected this rise so fast, i thought a test $350 ore so then to $400.

they cant go to 350.00, they can be hardballed there.

seems to be the case <350 is starting to feel like a pipe dream, if it was going to happen it should have already

my guess is price SHOULD BE much higher... but bitcoin isn't some Softball US Stock, so who knows!

[madmat]

hello bitcoin land
it's some very nice weather we are having this morning.
anyway,
is there a date set by bitcoinclassic for there fork?

will the dev's have their implementation which gives about 4x capacity to the network be ready in time before bitcoinclassic forks?

if not, will poeple switch to bitcoin classic's 2MB right away even if core is on the verge of a breakthrough?


only time will tell, i guess.

Timing is really simple. As soon as classic is released, we need 750 blocks out of the last 1000 to be classic blocks (block.version=0x20000008). If we get that, Classic is activated, and bigger blocks are allowed after a 4 week grace period.

[adamstgBit]

hello bitcoin land
it's some very nice weather we are having this morning.
anyway,
is there a date set by bitcoinclassic for there fork?

will the dev's have their implementation which gives about 4x capacity to the network be ready in time before bitcoinclassic forks?

if not, will poeple switch to bitcoin classic's 2MB right away even if core is on the verge of a breakthrough?


only time will tell, i guess.

Timing is really simple. As soon as classic is released, we need 750 blocks out of the last 1000 to be classic blocks (block.version=0x20000008). If we get that, Classic is activated, and bigger blocks are allowed after a 4 week grace period.

sounds reasonable,
I like that they are doing a simple 1 line change to 2MB.
this has a shot at forking bitcoin i guess.
but i would expect core to fallow the 2MB rule once its set in place... why wouldn't they? if they don't they technically mining an alt coin.
"bitcoin" necessarily is what the majority want it to be.


i think at that point core would have to come to the realization that the development of bitcoin is becoming decentralized and so they can no longer call all the shots.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Back up over $400 after 5 days of bargain prices. I hope everyone got some cheap coins.

I could only afford to buy 2 BTC, 1 for $390 on the first dip and another for $370 on the continued drop.

That's still not too bad for the middle of January. Thanks Mike.

[aztecminer]

Bitcoin was bound to go back to $400.- I didn't expected this rise so fast, i thought a test $350 ore so then to $400.

they cant go to 350.00, they can be hardballed there.

seems to be the case <350 is starting to feel like a pipe dream, if it was going to happen it should have already

my guess is price SHOULD BE much higher... but bitcoin isn't some Softball US Stock, so who knows!

maybe is why the hearn thing happened, he might be thinking same as u about it would have already if it were going too .. $350 is hardball because from there they would get stuck in a smaller range, or peeps like me and you will win if they go up or down from there... buying at 400-500 range is not very strong position since you are relying on the price to go up from there rather than down .. i do not believe they can beat me at hardball if i bought at 300 - 350 .. i really dont want to buy above 300 though, but if i did, i am confident i would woop em at their game. i don't believe at this time we will see <350 anytime soon much less <300 before halving. i think <350 we can buy in w new fiat and force the win though .

[brg444]

I'd advise trader here to secure their long position.

We have consensus.

When did this royal "we" come to this result?

Should I act quickly, or do I have a few days of down before the up comes?

Not long ago.

I'd advise you act quickly.  

Called it

[adamstgBit]

Bitcoin was bound to go back to $400.- I didn't expected this rise so fast, i thought a test $350 ore so then to $400.

they cant go to 350.00, they can be hardballed there.

seems to be the case <350 is starting to feel like a pipe dream, if it was going to happen it should have already

my guess is price SHOULD BE much higher... but bitcoin isn't some Softball US Stock, so who knows!

maybe is why the hearn thing happened, he might be thinking same as u about it would have already if it were going too .. $350 is hardball because from there they would get stuck in a smaller range, or peeps like me and you will win if they go up or down from there... buying at 400-500 range is not very strong position since you are relying on the price to go up from there rather than down .. i do not believe they can beat me at hardball if i bought at 300 - 350 .. i really dont want to buy above 300 though, but if i did, i am confident i would woop em at their game. i don't believe at this time we will see <350 anytime soon much less <300 before halving. i think <350 we can buy in w new fiat and force the win though .

your not thinking long term enough in 6-24months there simply wont be any supply at these prices, price might need to climb an order of magnitude once bitcoin is over this block limit crap and supply drops. there are very useful applications to bitcoin poeple are going to find them and use them save some money and make bitcoin price explode.

going up.

[BitUsher]

sounds reasonable,
I like that they are doing a simple 1 line change to 2MB.
this has a shot at forking bitcoin i guess.
but i would expect core to fallow the 2MB rule once its set in place... why wouldn't they? if they don't they technically mining an alt coin.
"bitcoin" necessarily is what the majority want it to be.


i think at that point core would have to come to the realization that the development of bitcoin is becoming decentralized and so they can no longer call all the shots.

Clarifications...

1) Bitcoin classic is not simply changing maxBlockSize, doing so , even to 2MB would introduce dangerous attack vectors -CVE-2013-2292  The Classic devs are aware of this and thankfully making many more changes for sigop protections.

2) Development has already been decentralized with multiple implementations. We do need to support other implemenentations like libbitcoin and bitcore. There is a distinction to be made between having multiple implemenatations that break consensus rules and ones that do not . There can be multiple implementations that have different developers, written in different code/languages, and with different unique features all working cooperatively (This is recommended), but some would argue that always having implementations that are attempting to usurp consensus rules decreases user and investor confidence as ultimately there can only be one set of consensus rules that is considered bitcoin.

3) Segwit provides an effective 2MB increase in capacity , is already in testnet, has wide support - https://bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/ and will go live in april, IMHO before Classic can get deployed

4) In other news a planned hard fork increasing to an effective 4MB capacity is already being organized-

https://botbot.me/freenode/bitcoin-core-dev/

wangchun from F2Pool is planning with some core devs yesterday for a planned 2MB hard fork and adding extra nonce space in feb/march 2017 to increase effective capacity up to ~4MB.

[CuntChocula]

...
I like that they are doing a simple 1 line change to 2MB.
this has a shot at forking bitcoin i guess.
but i would expect core to fallow the 2MB rule once its set in place... why wouldn't they? if they don't they technically mining an alt coin.
"bitcoin" necessarily is what the majority want it to be.

Technically, the core is just a bunch of devs. They don't mine.
They could copy Core's code & call it Core 0.12, but only if they got no shame.