Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hdbuck]

monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly.  also bearish through at least mid-September.  supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224

Your monkey was bearish last January, but the price had doubled within six months. Your monkey is a crap trader and needs sacking. If he says sell it's probably best to buy. If the price doubles again within six months will you permanently sack your monkey?

FYI monkey now thinks BTC is broken. Short for 1 month, at least.  I am not trading this (except to rotate into XMR), but neither do I accumulate.

Yeah, the monkey underperforms in BTC relative to other instruments, but he still outperforms me, if I interpret him correctly, and does represent a slight edge.  I don't have enough data (or time) to quantify the edge, but I guess its about 5-8%.  Consequently my sizing is small in BTC.  In SPX, UST, GLD, OIL, JPY, EUR, he does much better (or my interpretive skills are better, mutatis mutandis) -- about a 15-20% edge.  I have enough data to quantify that, but haven't bothered.

You will notice that I said I was not going to trade with the monkey in January.  It turns out that was the right call.  This time I am trading with the monkey, and time will tell.  So far he has me up about 4% since Saturday, on that small position.  XMR on the other hand has been a rocketsled up the mountain.

Your monkey would do better trades if you blindfolded it, and got it to throw darts at a newspaper stock listing. Buy the stocks the darts hit and you will outperform both amateur and professional traders.

A Princeton University economist (Burton Malkiel) developed a theory that a blindfolded monkey throwing random darts could outperform professional traders. Forbes tested the theory every two months, and the monkey won.

Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans With Stock Picks

Consider Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel's "efficient markets theory." In his 1973 book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," Mr. Malkiel argued that if the market is truly efficient and a share price reflects all factors immediately as soon as they're made public, a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper stock listing should do as well as any investment professional.

Every two months we test this theory. Four amateurs, four professionals and the monkey go up against the market, as measured by the Morgan Stanley Capital Index for Europe.

Amateurs, professionals and the monkey have now completed three rounds of competition from July 2000 through May 2001. If percentage gains are converted into dartboard points, the monkey has moved into the lead with 13.3 points, followed by the professionals with 4.4 points, and the amateurs with -81.22.

i could think of one more thing monkeys are good picking at.

[adamstgBit]

wow BFX is 0.37$

CASH THE FUCK OUT POEPLE

[adamstgBit]

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

naaaa

the mistake is thinking it could further impact price.

that means: Bitfinex debacle is NOT over, and it will surely impact price futher

[adamstgBit]

monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly.  also bearish through at least mid-September.  supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224

BAhahahahaha 444, 224!!!!!

your monkey will turn bullish as fuck again when we find bottom at 520

[adamstgBit]

Hey Adam, where do you roll these days? I think I might start gambling again.

there on to me man, i have to hop around like a mad fool.

this signal is about to be fully traced.

I must disconnect now.

[Tzupy]

monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly.  also bearish through at least mid-September.  supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224

BAhahahahaha 444, 224!!!!!

your monkey will turn bullish as fuck again when we find bottom at 520

444$ is a possibility, I have bids in that area on Kraken. But 224? Aminorex, are you sure your monkey isn't actually a bear?

[adamstgBit]

monkey is looking for downside through next sunday, roughly.  also bearish through at least mid-September.  supports are 561, 537, 490, 444, 224

BAhahahahaha 444, 224!!!!!

your monkey will turn bullish as fuck again when we find bottom at 520

444$ is a possibility, I have bids in that area on Kraken. But 224? Aminorex, are you sure your monkey isn't actually a bear?

i GUESS 444 is POSSIBLE.

but i'm thinking most likely scenario is a higher low, 520 feels right for that.

[adamstgBit]

[savetherainforest]

[edited out]

But traders ignore feelings, right?

I'd say wait for 3-4 days and we will see where we land. Right now it's fear clusterfuck.

[edited out]

Hello!

Thanks for clear and explanatory reply.

Indeed, I was anxious about my plan because I had no plan for down. Now I do just to calm my nerves down. Because today's dip was good enough to cause me to smoke shitloads of ciggaretes.

Though, my story is developing just right: "price will drop a bit but it will recover".

We still see FUD going on with fake threads. But in case it doesn't, I will just buy more.

So... let me give you a bit of insight on how you should be thinking...


For example you should get this concept first in your head: "I am the one who knocks!"



Then... Think of yourself you have 30-40k of bitcoin on some exchange...

After that... How can you move such amounts that no one will figure out how much you have or what you are doing with what you have?

So... after those thoughts you will get to think at a micro level... where you have to do thousand of micro transactions compared to your full 100% amount in such way that no one will notice! But in the same time all of your thousand of transactions must be profitable... But the trick is to feel the market so you don't overload it. Because if you want to trade and get too much profits, you will force invisible forces to notice you... and that's how you create swings in the market and volatility goes ape sh!t on you. So... basically you can predict anything if you are the one that "knocks!..." or in lame man's terms, try to think like the bad guy and accepting yourself in most of the situations that you are the bad guy. That's how you will make profits and have no worries.  

[marcus_of_augustus]

Any minute now the NSA will be market buying a million bitcoins. Any minute now...
 
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/hackers-hack-nsa-linked-equation-group

haxor wants coinz and welfie l33ts heads ... or else! legit.

[marcus_of_augustus]

This is pretty shitty and I'm usually bullish but getting a bit pissed off. I will as usual keep hodling but halving done and not much coming up isn't looking that great. I wouldn't write off seeing the 400s again between now and Christmas.

Someone tell otherwise.

We should know if there's further ETF progress very soon. Even if it's a firm Fuck Off that still puts uncertainty to bed. And you never know, there might be some scalability on the horizon relatively soon. I don't think either are going to cause an immediate bounce but they're both big votes for future confidence.

Upside surprises to watch out for:

ETF approval/dismissed

CME opening BTC index in September (options trading soon after?)

[savetherainforest]

Who are we manipulating Adam? 

[adamstgBit]

Who are we manipulating Adam? 

the bankers that read this thread?

[hdbuck]

Any minute now the NSA will be market buying a million bitcoins. Any minute now...
 
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/hackers-hack-nsa-linked-equation-group

haxor wants coinz and welfie l33ts heads ... or else! legit.

this is gentlemen!

[fichtn12345]

Who are we manipulating Adam? 

the bankers that read this thread?

Confirmed.

[savetherainforest]

Who are we manipulating Adam? 

the bankers that read this thread?

But I like volatility! #Sarcams  

... Anyway... it seems its Game Over for everyone... Uber duper super nuber coil just started to unfoil.  

[JayJuanGee]

No, I am not a whale. And I do not have some insider info. It just seems right now community is lacking optimism because of bitfinex hack and horrible price crash. And it is true that small volume gives ability to manipulate price. But this manipulation is harder everyday.

What I actually feel is fear. But bear with me. Times when I felt fear just the opposite happened (price jumped up) and times when I felt strong euphoria - price crashed down. But traders ignore feelings, right?

I'd say wait for 3-4 days and we will see where we land. Right now it's fear clusterfuck.

Based on your own feelings (described as fear at this point), it seems that you are attempting to mock some common points of wisdom, specifically to attempt to not become too emotional regarding either your investment or your investment choices.

Do you really believe that advice, regarding keeping emotions out of your trades to be bad advice?

Yes, I will concede that humans have emotions, and even if you program some bot trading, you are still emotionally attached to your investment in some degree, otherwise you would not have spent time considering it and making such investments.

I doubt that anyone is really suggesting that you should be a bot or have no human emotions in respect to your investment, but over time, you should be able to establish systems (whether it is buy/ HODLing or trading) in which you have a general plan for no matter which direction the market goes.  Maybe you do not know every single specific of your plan because sometimes the plan may be that you need to review your plan and to reconsider your plan at various points and upon the triggering of certain events.

Anyhow, part of my point is that you can establish ways to attempt to minimize emotions..

I only use myself as an example because I am able to talk about my own situation, and surely from time to time, I feel emotions when the price moves against me and when it is very volatile, because a person cannot really know when it is going to stop in one direction or another, and even with myself, my built in assumption over time is that bitcoin prices are going to go up.  Therefore, I structure my strategy in such a way that my whole portfolio does better when prices go up, so yeah, my portfolio was doing fucking great all the way up to $779, and it is not in as great of shape at $566 as it was at $779.

Anyhow, I do have to reconfigure from time to time, and I attempt to be prepared for the price to go down in considerable ways, even if it were to return to the $200s.. though of course, matters are much better going up rather than down, and less down is better than a lot down.. yet  overall staying above the mid-$00s is good, too.   

I guess my main points is to prepare mentally and to prepare with your portfolio with a plan that is suitable for you, and if you are becoming extremely emotional, that is likely a sign that you have over invested either in one direction or another.. so you may need to tweak your holdings in order to remove some of the anxiety that is being evoked by the then current situation.

Hello!

Thanks for clear and explanatory reply.

Indeed, I was anxious about my plan because I had no plan for down. Now I do just to calm my nerves down. Because today's dip was good enough to cause me to smoke shitloads of ciggaretes.

Though, my story is developing just right: "price will drop a bit but it will recover".

We still see FUD going on with fake threads. But in case it doesn't, I will just buy more.

I think that during times of consolidation (maybe currently in the $550 to $590 price arena - for the past couple of weeks), we should be attempting to prepare ourselves financially and mentally, that the price could  break out in either direction - and maybe placing a little bit of a bet that the odds are better in one direction rather than another (I still am a tiny bit more inclined to believe that an upwards break out is a bit more likely), but yeah, if we break downwards, I am prepared too... staggered tentative bets....

From your above post, it appears that you have allowed yourself to reconsider and reflect a bit in the past 24 hours, and that is a good thing (even though smoking a shit load of cigs may not have been so great for yourself, physically). 

 

[Capradina]

No, I am not a whale. And I do not have some insider info. It just seems right now community is lacking optimism because of bitfinex hack and horrible price crash. And it is true that small volume gives ability to manipulate price. But this manipulation is harder everyday.

What I actually feel is fear. But bear with me. Times when I felt fear just the opposite happened (price jumped up) and times when I felt strong euphoria - price crashed down. But traders ignore feelings, right?

I'd say wait for 3-4 days and we will see where we land. Right now it's fear clusterfuck.

Based on your own feelings (described as fear at this point), it seems that you are attempting to mock some common points of wisdom, specifically to attempt to not become too emotional regarding either your investment or your investment choices.

Do you really believe that advice, regarding keeping emotions out of your trades to be bad advice?

Yes, I will concede that humans have emotions, and even if you program some bot trading, you are still emotionally attached to your investment in some degree, otherwise you would not have spent time considering it and making such investments.

I doubt that anyone is really suggesting that you should be a bot or have no human emotions in respect to your investment, but over time, you should be able to establish systems (whether it is buy/ HODLing or trading) in which you have a general plan for no matter which direction the market goes.  Maybe you do not know every single specific of your plan because sometimes the plan may be that you need to review your plan and to reconsider your plan at various points and upon the triggering of certain events.

Anyhow, part of my point is that you can establish ways to attempt to minimize emotions..

I only use myself as an example because I am able to talk about my own situation, and surely from time to time, I feel emotions when the price moves against me and when it is very volatile, because a person cannot really know when it is going to stop in one direction or another, and even with myself, my built in assumption over time is that bitcoin prices are going to go up.  Therefore, I structure my strategy in such a way that my whole portfolio does better when prices go up, so yeah, my portfolio was doing fucking great all the way up to $779, and it is not in as great of shape at $566 as it was at $779.

Anyhow, I do have to reconfigure from time to time, and I attempt to be prepared for the price to go down in considerable ways, even if it were to return to the $200s.. though of course, matters are much better going up rather than down, and less down is better than a lot down.. yet  overall staying above the mid-$00s is good, too.   

I guess my main points is to prepare mentally and to prepare with your portfolio with a plan that is suitable for you, and if you are becoming extremely emotional, that is likely a sign that you have over invested either in one direction or another.. so you may need to tweak your holdings in order to remove some of the anxiety that is being evoked by the then current situation.

Hello!

Thanks for clear and explanatory reply.

Indeed, I was anxious about my plan because I had no plan for down. Now I do just to calm my nerves down. Because today's dip was good enough to cause me to smoke shitloads of ciggaretes.

Though, my story is developing just right: "price will drop a bit but it will recover".

We still see FUD going on with fake threads. But in case it doesn't, I will just buy more.

I think that during times of consolidation (maybe currently in the $550 to $590 price arena - for the past couple of weeks), we should be attempting to prepare ourselves financially and mentally, that the price could  break out in either direction - and maybe placing a little bit of a bet that the odds are better in one direction rather than another (I still am a tiny bit more inclined to believe that an upwards break out is a bit more likely), but yeah, if we break downwards, I am prepared too... staggered tentative bets....

From your above post, it appears that you have allowed yourself to reconsider and reflect a bit in the past 24 hours, and that is a good thing (even though smoking a shit load of cigs may not have been so great for yourself, physically). 

 

I very much agree to what you are talking about. That may be the price of the bitcoin for some weeks will remain between $ 550-$ 575. because I see that conditions have started to improve and I think in time it will come a bitcoin will experience the events always occur i.e. price will be stable. And during that time we were obliged to remain patient and not rash

[Elwar]

I think the Bitfinex hack has more of us on edge because at least with MtGox there were months and months of warning signs including the inability to withdraw your fiat, their dwolla account being closed, etc. So most people who had any intelligence got out. The only people still on MtGox before it was "hacked" were taking advantage of wild swings due to pure chaos on the exchange.

With Bitfinex it was seen as fairly secure because it had been around as long as most of the older exchanges, it had gone through a lot of transparent security measures and everyone felt fairly confident in the exchange (as confident as you can be). I even used to recommend to people that they use Bitfinex to loan their fiat for 20-30% yearly. They would tell me that such returns required high risk. My response was that since each loan was paid back the only risk was the exchange going under, which was not likely.

This is not a faulting of Bitcoin itself, but people might not feel very confident putting any money on any exchange if Bitfinex could be hacked. This cuts down on the speculation aspect of Bitcoin which contributes to the price. It is just a matter of time without an exchange hack to get people to feel more confidence in trading again.

When it comes down to it, most of Bitcoin's problems tend to come from the interactions with the fiat system.

In the short term, it's going to be a good buying opportunity. Long term we're still solid.

[InitcoiN]

I think we first go short, then long to a new highs...

Sounds like you are talking your book... There is no reason that we go short before we go long...

There have already been several downward attempts on the price, and sure you could be correct that there will be another one or that the next downward attempt (if there is one) will be successful, but certainly, you gotta be careful, at this point regarding how much you were to bet on downwards.

Well, as you can see, we go down now... Maybe we go down a little bit more before the uptrend resumes.

GL on your trades