Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cassius]

When are we actually gonna pass ATH Jimbo?  

I wish I could see into the future. I'd break my anti-gambling rule and already be rich.  

I guess the ATH depends on where you are. Americans need current prices to rise 66% to reach an ATH, while Canadians only need to rise less than 25%.

If I have to take a stab at it, I'd say some time in 2017 for us Canadians and sometime in 2017-8 for Americans. I'm not all that familiar with other currencies but I think the yuan might be quicker than the USD. As for the rupee, aren't they getting close? I don't even want to mention the Chilean peso.  

If you're in India or Nigeria, you've already seen ATH
In terms of market cap, which I'd say is a fairer measure, I think we're there in USD too.

[European Central Bank]

A year ago, I was arbitraging between Europe and India, and used them pay BTC sellers in India. When I hit the hidden threshold, they called me. While having a friendly chat, I was asked what I was paying for. Told them it was for Bitcoin (why not, I thought, it aint illegal). Next thing they do is close my (already verified) account.

they have to keep their banking relationships happy. that outweighs anything to do with bitcoin. i think i read somewhere them saying good things about bitcoin but they had to stop dealing with it.

[JimboToronto]

I do have one question in regards to your concept of "exponentially level off."  I gather that you are considering this to take place after we have experienced one or more exponential growth periods, then thereafter there would be a kind of post exponential period?  I ask for this clarification because I understand the concept of "exponential" and "level" to be in tension with one another.

I was referring to the standard s-curve. At the start it moves up slowly and increases exponentially until it becomes almost vertical at the point of most adoption. Then it switches over and the rate of increase decreases, slowly at first then exponentially until it has leveled off at saturation and is horizontal.

This video is over 3 years old but its principles still hold strong:

https://youtu.be/qHUPPYzzZrI?list=PLzctEq7iZD-7-DgJM604zsndMapn9ff6q

[JayJuanGee]

I do have one question in regards to your concept of "exponentially level off."  I gather that you are considering this to take place after we have experienced one or more exponential growth periods, then thereafter there would be a kind of post exponential period?  I ask for this clarification because I understand the concept of "exponential" and "level" to be in tension with one another.

I was referring to the standard s-curve. At the start it moves up slowly and increases exponentially until it becomes almost vertical at the point of most adoption. Then it switches over and the rate of increase decreases, slowly at first then exponentially until it has leveled off at saturation and is horizontal.

This video is over 3 years old but its principles still hold strong:

https://youtu.be/qHUPPYzzZrI?list=PLzctEq7iZD-7-DgJM604zsndMapn9ff6q

Thanks for that clarification Jimbo.  I had not seen that video, and sure it seems to still be applicable to current bitcoin dynamics (or potential dynamics).

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We can definitely hope. It doesn't seem like a realily unrealistic prediction/forecast. We'd all be really happy if that kind of price became a reality.

[Fakhoury]

When are we actually gonna pass ATH Jimbo?  

I wish I could see into the future. I'd break my anti-gambling rule and already be rich.  

I guess the ATH depends on where you are. Americans need current prices to rise 66% to reach an ATH, while Canadians only need to rise less than 25%.

If I have to take a stab at it, I'd say some time in 2017 for us Canadians and sometime in 2017-8 for Americans. I'm not all that familiar with other currencies but I think the yuan might be quicker than the USD. As for the rupee, aren't they getting close? I don't even want to mention the Chilean peso.  

Brother, most probably next year we will see $2K-$4K

Why ?

1. COIN ETF
2. BitCache and Megaupload 2
3. Saxo Bank predication (They predicated the Brexit back in 2014)

This is only few to list.

[Meuh6879]

Or ... cashless society.

[JimboToronto]

Brother, most probably next year we will see $2K-$4K.

No argument from me on that one.

I was being conservative in my speculation. I figured we'd be there already if it weren't for Gox and 2014 setting us back a year.

We may have different reasons for that expectation but it seems we have similar ideas about where it will end up.

I see it having more to do with adoption in more and more new markets. The Cypriot banking crisis drove the spring bubble of 2013 while the autumn bubble of that year was driven in part by China coming onboard. Just as quickly, rumors of Chinese Bitcoin bans burst that bubble.

This spring's micro bubble was driven in part by the halving, but speculation about Brexit also played a large role. More recently it's been about cash and gold restrictions in India and uncertainty about Italian banks.

Who'll be next?

[yefi]

they have to keep their banking relationships happy. that outweighs anything to do with bitcoin. i think i read somewhere them saying good things about bitcoin but they had to stop dealing with it.

Really? I'm sure the CEO said the opposite - that Bitcoin was dead and that nobody uses it.

[kurious]

they have to keep their banking relationships happy. that outweighs anything to do with bitcoin. i think i read somewhere them saying good things about bitcoin but they had to stop dealing with it.

Really? I'm sure the CEO said the opposite - that Bitcoin was dead and that nobody uses it.

I used to use them for a while and then when I sent a translator in France a payment for a translation for a job I was (legitimately) doing in French about Moscow and I put a reference 'Moscow translation' on the payment it was held up for ages, I complained and they asked (extensively) what it was for, why I was doing it etc.

I said it was a transfer of funds in Euros - exactly what they were advertising was 'easy' with their service. They were suspicious because of the use of the word 'Moscow' that it was a breach of Russian trade embargoes / money laundering etc. which was ridiculous.

They refused this legitimate (and totally legal) money transfer for UK to France totally and so I never used them again, and I never will.

One day, I will do all of this in Bitcoin - right now, realitstically I can't, but it's not long way off.  No one else can offer these legitimate payments without excessive charges and / or 'questions' about 'why ' a person wants to do it.

They are resisting the tide along with all the others.  This is why crypto will win and fiat banks will lose in the long run.

Long live frictionless, cheap transfer of money across borders. Long live BTC.

[Meuh6879]

Yes, the main goal of Bitcoin is the network ... so, litteraly = NO STOP SINCE 2009.

[European Central Bank]

Really? I'm sure the CEO said the opposite - that Bitcoin was dead and that nobody uses it.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/05/20/transferwise-ceo-bitcoin-is-a-friend/

their tune seems to change pretty regularly. like quite a few others they started off positive and then got huffy.

[mymenace]

It's my opinion that we should have been well north of $1K many years ago, that's how much I think bitcoin is undervalued right now.

I fully agree with that. While it was over $1k 3 years ago, that was an artificial high.

Follow the exponential rise from a fifth of a penny in May 2010, through dime later that year, a dollar several months later, bubbling up past $39 in the Great Bubble only to settle in at over $2 later that year, then less than half a year later setting a new ATH at $266 during the second major bubble, only to drop to $50, and then reach $1200 during the 3rd big bubble.

The peaks of the 3 mega-bubbles all rose above the trend lines and were quickly brought back down to earth. Since then we've been substantially below the trend lines and are only recently recovering. The 2014-2015 prices in the $200s were as much an anomaly as the prices in the $5-$10 range were in 2012.

Of course Bitcoin is undervalued now. We have a lot of catching up to do.

agreed.  It is undervalued indeed but the value is showing so much maturity. Volatility seems a thing of the past: it will come back eventually but we saw much happening recently and price is still keeping up. To me that's good. I predicted 850 by the end of the year. We still have time

bitcoin may be undervalued for multiple reasons

future use of bitcoin
future developing markets we may not yet see
current fiat not viable in the future
mining revenue
limitation on the amount of bitcoin
the block chain and its inherent values

whats important to remember is what is driving the current market and where is the new bottom price going to stabilize at, previous bottom averaged at $240 USD

I agree with everything that you say, but regarding your last point, it seems that you are getting one step ahead of yourself, no?

We can have a working theory about the new resting point of the bottom, yet it seems somewhat depending on the intensity of the top too...

If we get some kind of mirroring of past performance, that may not be exactly scientific, then the top of the next bubble could be anywhere between $1,200 and $14,000, and I personally hypothesize that it would most reasonably land in the $3k to $5k territory, and if that happens, then the bottom would likely come resting back down in the $900 to $1,300 territory.  On the other hand, if the top ends up playing out in a different way than expected, then that kind of outcome would likely materially and significantly change the next step.   Accordingly, I think that there are too many steps in order to attempt to put any kind of range on the bottom without really knowing how the top plays out (which is also highly speculative, at this point).  

..."then the bottom would likely come resting back down in the $900 to $1,300 territory"...

a best guest is all anyone can do, a working theory

the more theory's allows for great opportunity for new investors to trade smarter

my belief is new investors want to come in but a lot would be misinformed and buying at the top would create a bubble.

a more steady growth and valuation of bitcoins real value will prove economic success in the use of bitcoin

rather than moon here we come $14000 bitcoin....

this is my belief and theory only and everyone should do their own research

great work all

[JayJuanGee]

It's my opinion that we should have been well north of $1K many years ago, that's how much I think bitcoin is undervalued right now.

I fully agree with that. While it was over $1k 3 years ago, that was an artificial high.

Follow the exponential rise from a fifth of a penny in May 2010, through dime later that year, a dollar several months later, bubbling up past $39 in the Great Bubble only to settle in at over $2 later that year, then less than half a year later setting a new ATH at $266 during the second major bubble, only to drop to $50, and then reach $1200 during the 3rd big bubble.

The peaks of the 3 mega-bubbles all rose above the trend lines and were quickly brought back down to earth. Since then we've been substantially below the trend lines and are only recently recovering. The 2014-2015 prices in the $200s were as much an anomaly as the prices in the $5-$10 range were in 2012.

Of course Bitcoin is undervalued now. We have a lot of catching up to do.

agreed.  It is undervalued indeed but the value is showing so much maturity. Volatility seems a thing of the past: it will come back eventually but we saw much happening recently and price is still keeping up. To me that's good. I predicted 850 by the end of the year. We still have time

bitcoin may be undervalued for multiple reasons

future use of bitcoin
future developing markets we may not yet see
current fiat not viable in the future
mining revenue
limitation on the amount of bitcoin
the block chain and its inherent values

whats important to remember is what is driving the current market and where is the new bottom price going to stabilize at, previous bottom averaged at $240 USD

I agree with everything that you say, but regarding your last point, it seems that you are getting one step ahead of yourself, no?

We can have a working theory about the new resting point of the bottom, yet it seems somewhat depending on the intensity of the top too...

If we get some kind of mirroring of past performance, that may not be exactly scientific, then the top of the next bubble could be anywhere between $1,200 and $14,000, and I personally hypothesize that it would most reasonably land in the $3k to $5k territory, and if that happens, then the bottom would likely come resting back down in the $900 to $1,300 territory.  On the other hand, if the top ends up playing out in a different way than expected, then that kind of outcome would likely materially and significantly change the next step.   Accordingly, I think that there are too many steps in order to attempt to put any kind of range on the bottom without really knowing how the top plays out (which is also highly speculative, at this point).  

..."then the bottom would likely come resting back down in the $900 to $1,300 territory"...

a best guest is all anyone can do, a working theory

the more theory's allows for great opportunity for new investors to trade smarter

my belief is new investors want to come in but a lot would be misinformed and buying at the top would create a bubble.

a more steady growth and valuation of bitcoins real value will prove economic success in the use of bitcoin

rather than moon here we come $14000 bitcoin....

this is my belief and theory only and everyone should do their own research

great work all

I mentioned $14,000, merely because it was recently asserted to be in the high range of targets for the next bubble that would peak in mid February 2017 (that was in the megabull article that was linked above by Lauda), and to me that $14,000 seems much too rosey of a peak picture (and even was in the upper most range of that prediction), yet if such a rosey picture were to materialize into reality, then I have a hard time imagining any BTC price dip that would return below $3k...

The more realistic, but still highly speculative scenario, would be peaking in the $3k to $5k arena and taking a bit more time (rather than  mid-February, maybe somewhere between May and July 2017) and correcting at some point into the $900 to $1,300 arena, but what the fuck do I know?

[Chef Ramsay]

Or ... cashless society.

If it truly goes cashless, you're gonna have to part with a little more skin than that, oh wait... In any event, this next year is gonna knock the socks off even the biggest bearfucker.

[btcdiggingmaster]

Saxo Bank prediction is that bitcoin will be 2100$ next year. Guys, it true that the price of bitcoin will reach 2100$ in the year 2017?

Many people are waiting for that price from long time even many people are still holding the bitcoin for future. It is going to be great revolution if it really touches 2100$, even no control on bitcoin it is keep tickling the price really bitcoin has great future.

[savetherainforest]

It's my opinion that we should have been well north of $1K many years ago, that's how much I think bitcoin is undervalued right now.

I fully agree with that. While it was over $1k 3 years ago, that was an artificial high.

Follow the exponential rise from a fifth of a penny in May 2010, through dime later that year, a dollar several months later, bubbling up past $39 in the Great Bubble only to settle in at over $2 later that year, then less than half a year later setting a new ATH at $266 during the second major bubble, only to drop to $50, and then reach $1200 during the 3rd big bubble.

The peaks of the 3 mega-bubbles all rose above the trend lines and were quickly brought back down to earth. Since then we've been substantially below the trend lines and are only recently recovering. The 2014-2015 prices in the $200s were as much an anomaly as the prices in the $5-$10 range were in 2012.

Of course Bitcoin is undervalued now. We have a lot of catching up to do.

Its a factor of 20x + % of variation of how crazy the financial system is irl. But from that I can take the bubble will be somewhere in between 4.500$ and 6.250$ if the markets are conservative. And by conservative I mean that nothing happens irl with banks and other financial system and as well nothing happens with any bitcoin exchanges. (But if anything happens to any of the big exchanges... the ones that try to control will be the controlled, because people will just give up on exchanges and just go outside at the "piazza" and just ask random people "do you like to buy some BTCitcoin?", like a person selling pamphlets or tickets for something.

But as it looks, the banks will crash & burn very soon. Meaning that it will go higher than that 6.250$ conservative estimation I gave. Because many will try to store their wealth in BTCitcoin. So I can see an easy $30k - 40k$.  

[600watt]

Yes, the main goal of Bitcoin is the network ... so, litteraly = NO STOP SINCE 2009.

nice visualization of blockchain tech. where are the hashes, though?

[marcus_of_augustus]

$800 is a done deal

[Andre#]

Really? I'm sure the CEO said the opposite - that Bitcoin was dead and that nobody uses it.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/05/20/transferwise-ceo-bitcoin-is-a-friend/

their tune seems to change pretty regularly. like quite a few others they started off positive and then got huffy.

Half a year after this interview, my account at Transferwise was closed because I used it to buy bitcoin (and was so honest to tell Transferwise when asked by them). So much for their CEO "holding a soft corner" for Bitcoin.