Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

So what's the estimated date for activation. I'm guessing Aug 1st is a nothing date now we are locked in. (As I always say I am only a hodler so my knowledge on these kind of things are limited)

I think that you are correct that currently, August 1 is a nothing date - even though some exchanges have still not clarified that they will be staying open during such time.

Regarding lock in, I think that you can calculate from the information on:

https://coin.dance/blocks

As I type, there are 711 blocks left in this period, which will not result in locking in; however, it appears that the next period will cause locking in.

Therefore

711 blocks  in current period

+

2016 blocks in the upcoming locking in period

___________

Divided by 10 minutes per block

272.7

Divided by 24 hours in a day

11.36  days from July 23, 2017

So more or less depending on your time zone, late in the day on August 2, 2017 or early in the day on August 3, 2017 segwit will be locked in.

Did I calculate that correctly?

[Meuh6879]

  volumes stop on exchange ...   and price, too ... !

[toknormal]

[Meuh6879]

[Elwar]

haha

[marcus_of_augustus]

... more like 18 days until possible bip141 (actual segwit) lock in .... ~144 blocks per day

I think it feels like we might get a pump here to a new ATH in the next 24 hrs ... smart crypto money front-running the wave of dumb fiat stuck in the legacy banking system (and gold 3rd party accounts) until Monday mornings.

[marcus_of_augustus]

after bip141 locks in there is another 2016 blocks grace period before it goes live on the network ... maybe around August 21 which is dun-dun-dun ... solar eclipse day over North America!

coincidence!? i think not.

[sirazimuth]

Rofl, Bitcoin Cash is really 0.15 real Bitcoin worth ? Can't wait for the HF.  This is even better than Byteball.

damn straight!!!

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, fuck, I am sorry Torque that you shorted or sold or something in the $2400 territories, but it seems that you will be very lucky if you are able to get back in anywhere below $2600 - and that might be a considerable stretch absent some very convincing FUD - because ordinary FUD is not likely to damper the current ongoing upwards BTC price pressures.

In other words, sorry for your loss.    

1) I didn't sell

Well, I am glad that you did not sell.  From your various insistence on bearish perspective talk, despite facts, sometimes I get the sense that you may have sold based on your stated views and to align your BTC holdings (and fiat holdings) in order to align your holdings with your views of the future.

2) Quoted you for posterity. Barring some black swan event, I'm pretty sure that within 6 months from now that the bitcoin price is going to be much lower than where we are now. Markets don't go up forever (unless it's the U.S. stock market). I'm gonna have fun rubbing this statement in your nose in the future JJG.  

What the fuck?  You act as if there is only one version of the future?  Sure, once the future happens, there is only one version, but before it happens, it is based on a series of events and the occurrences of various known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

So we have to get past these various occurrences first.

Again, who the fuck cares if the price is going to return to these places? I am making no kind of strong prediction about either price direction; however, if we are betting down down downs, sooner or later that bet is going to be correct, but if the price either goes to $3500 first or to $5k first, then so the fuck what that it returns to $2700 or lower.  You have been missing a lot of opportunities, if all you can think about it down, down, down when the odds of up are greater.  So yeah, maybe from here within the $2650 to $2950 price range the odds are slightly more up than down (perhaps 55% for up and 45% for down), and in that regards, the odds of down are not insubstantial, they are just less than the odds for up... so I don't know what purpose it serves you to assert that I am wrong about something when the spread of my depiction for down versus  up  is not really that much different - even though I am calling up.. ?  At least at this point.

3) Oh, and everybody here knows that you are a troll

What good is this accusation?  You should at least know me well enough to recognize that a vast majority of my posts are to attempt some kind of substantive contribution.  Merely, because I have a tendency to respond to your various outrageous statements does not cause me to become an actual troll regardless of your supposed insight into what "everyone here" knows.

Actually, frequently, I respond to your various nonsubstantiated accusations, and then all I hear from you is crickets.       

[xhomerx10]

 This is how serial killers are made.

[JayJuanGee]

... more like 18 days until possible bip141 (actual segwit) lock in .... ~144 blocks per day

I think it feels like we might get a pump here to a new ATH in the next 24 hrs ... smart crypto money front-running the wave of dumb fiat stuck in the legacy banking system (and gold 3rd party accounts) until Monday mornings.

O.k.  If I recalculate based on 144 blocks per day, then you are correct, 18-ish days, which would bring us to segwit locking in on August 10th - ish... although we may be able to see whether it is appearing to be inevitable on August 8 or 9... otherwise another two weeks at another attempt to lock in segwit.

I just don't understand any realistic scenario in which segwit is not locked in during the first lock-in period, especially given the apparent punitive nature of BIP91.  So, absent some strong FUD or otherwise dramatic controversial play coming from the big blockers, we are likely looking at August 8, 9 or 10 to have a decently high level of confidence that segwit is locked in.

[JayJuanGee]

after bip141 locks in there is another 2016 blocks grace period before it goes live on the network ... maybe around August 21 which is dun-dun-dun ... solar eclipse day over North America!

coincidence!? i think not.

Yeah, but who cares about going active, right? 

What significance does going active have? 

Isn't the locking in the important event?

[Mrpumperitis]

Bitcoin wallet disabled until after BIP-91 is settled. Bittrex

Statement on the upcoming Bitcoin activation of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 91 (BIP 91)

Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 91 (BIP 91, also known as Miner Activated Soft Fork) recently locked in over 90 percent of all mining hash power, signaling majority support for this proposal. BIP 91's lock in effectively makes BIP 148 (User Activated Soft Fork scheduled for August 1) obsolete and nullifies the chances of the Bitcoin network forking through UASF.

At this time, with BIP 91 locked in, we are confident that the Bitcoin network will successfully activate and enforce BIP 91 blocks. Bittrex will be monitoring this situation closely. We do not anticipate any issues with BIP 91 activation. However, Bittrex will close deposits and withdrawals of Bitcoin (including 2nd layer protocol XCP/OMNI and associated assets) 4 hours prior to the BIP 91 activation block 477,120 anticipated to be at July 23, 12am PST (7am UTC). The wallet will remain closed until the majority hash power chain is clearly established. Trading will remain active during this time. In the event of a chain split, Bittrex will take all reasonable steps to ensure that customer funds can be preserved on both chains.

[Mrpumperitis]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bip-91-has-activated-heres-what-means-and-what-it-does-not/

[sirazimuth]

after bip141 locks in there is another 2016 blocks grace period before it goes live on the network ... maybe around August 21 which is dun-dun-dun ... solar eclipse day over North America!

coincidence!? i think not.

Yeah, but who cares about going active, right?  

What significance does going active have?  

Isn't the locking in the important event?

well yeah.. but the solar eclipse is gonna be epic man!!
come to think of it... i shoulda grabbed that day for ATH contest...dammit!

[supercops]

Bittrex locking all withdrawals and deposits.

If you trade on Bittrex, they are locking withdrawals and deposits, in fact, they may already be locked, we haven't tried yet. ~ One fork after another this month. Get ready its that time of the month for bitcoin!

Bittrex says
However, Bittrex will close deposits and withdrawals of Bitcoin (including 2nd layer protocol XCP/OMNI and associated assets) 4 hours prior to the BIP 91 activation block 477,120 anticipated to be at July 23, 12am PST (7am UTC). The wallet will remain closed until the majority hash power chain is clearly established.
Trading will remain active during this time. In the event of a chain split, Bittrex will take all reasonable steps to ensure that customer funds can be preserved on both chains.


Here is Bittrex Support Article: https://support.bittrex.com/hc/en-us/articles/115000761392

What They Have To Say
Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 91 (BIP 91, also known as Miner Activated Soft Fork) recently locked in over 90 percent of all mining hash power, signaling majority support for this proposal. BIP 91's lock in effectively makes BIP 148 (User Activated Soft Fork scheduled for August 1) obsolete and nullifies the chances of the Bitcoin network forking through UASF.

At this time, with BIP 91 locked in, we are confident that the Bitcoin network will successfully activate and enforce BIP 91 blocks. Bittrex will be monitoring this situation closely. We do not anticipate any issues with BIP 91 activation. However, Bittrex will close deposits and withdrawals of Bitcoin (including 2nd layer protocol XCP/OMNI and associated assets) 4 hours prior to the BIP 91 activation block 477,120 anticipated to be at July 23, 12am PST (7am UTC). The wallet will remain closed until the majority hash power chain is clearly established. Trading will remain active during this time. In the event of a chain split, Bittrex will take all reasonable steps to ensure that customer funds can be preserved on both chains.

For more informative and up to the minute posts on what these kind of news stories around bitcoin and other cryptocurrency go to my focal point:
https://steemit.com/@pbitcoin/feed
Follow me please to get the latest breaking news that is relevant to you the bitcoin audience on BCTalk.

I just link the information on there and do not say I am the author or the writer.
Just the messenger to get the news that is relative to the public before it is spread site wide on here or on other outlets.

[Torque]

So is Bitfinex driving this market right now?

[Tmdz]

some fools throwing their money away in that little dip.

Now bip 91 is being enforced.

Pretty soon segwit so let the fun begin.

[silverfuture]

So is Bitfinex driving this market right now?

that 7 5  million $ buy wall on there seems impressive enough.

EDIT  It's starting to look like no one exchange is driving this. There is broader exchange infrastructure than there has ever been in bitcoin history.

[silverfuture]

That buywall on 'finex is getting decimated.