Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitarrow]

Hi guys.  I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi".  I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.

Glad your back!

[San1ty]

Hi guys.  I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi".  I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.

THE Bear is BACK! I don't know what to do anymore... ABANDON SHIP!

Historically, my ridiculous bearishness has cost me.  Just ask adam.

Welcome back !

[Rampion]

I have to admit I'm a bit worried of having gone parabolic so quick. As we all know parabolic growth is completely unsustainable mid term and preceeds panic sells and deep crashes (the wild euphoria turns into panic very quickly), so I would have been more comfortable with a few months of linear growth before the 3rd mania phase w/ exponential growth.

If this trend continues without stopping to consolidate and return to a sustainable path we would be reaching five figures in just a month, honestly I don't think that will happen, is more likely that huge correction/pop happens before that unless there is a consolidation phase.

[proudhon]

Gotta get back to work.  Have fun everyone.

[justusranvier]

I have to admit I'm a bit worried of having gone parabolic so quick. As we all know parabolic growth is completely unsustainable mid term and preceeds panic sells and deep crashes (the wild euphoria turns into panic very quickly), so I would have been more comfortable with a few months of linear growth before the 3rd mania phase w/ exponential growth.

If this trend continues with stopping to consolidate and return to a sustainable path we would reaching five figures in just a month, honestly I don't think that will happen, is more likely that huge correction/pop happens before that unless there is a consolidation phase.

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

[Rampion]

Well, I guess we can look forward to single digits next year now.

You never know with BTC. If the Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC, five digits before single digits for sure. On the contrary, if the parabolic growth continues for as little as a few days/weeks, I wouldn't be suprised to go below $50 this year. For me its clear that the more it goes up SO quickly, the deeper it will correct. Is basic psychology, people feels a huge and irrational rush when see their money doubling every few days, and that irrational excitment is easily reverted into panic - you know how we use to say, "the higher you fly the deeper you go"... In this case is very true especially in the case in which the heights are reached too quickly.

[cdb000]

So, one question: for how many in here buying BTC has been the best financial decision EVER??

My wife bought when the price was £7.80. She spent £5k and bought 641 coins, worth about £130k or so now.
This was probably the 2nd best decision she ever made (after answering "I do")

I have bought a small number of coins from time to time, but my 2nd best decision ever was to buy a bunch of 5870s back in January 2001.

[N12]

I was kidding, it was a nod to proudhon.

I'm of the opinion that next bear market will be the most devastating and the longest one so far (worse than 2011) because everyone is caught up in the belief that if only they hold long enough, they cannot possibly lose out on BTC, no matter their entry price. Every dip is a buying opportunity etc.

Furthermore, the current bubble developed very quickly after only 7 months between former alltime high. So, it's a bubble on top of a bubble in the same year.

We can talk about that once we actually top out. So far, we haven't even doubled from the 266 high.

[Rampion]

I have to admit I'm a bit worried of having gone parabolic so quick. As we all know parabolic growth is completely unsustainable mid term and preceeds panic sells and deep crashes (the wild euphoria turns into panic very quickly), so I would have been more comfortable with a few months of linear growth before the 3rd mania phase w/ exponential growth.

If this trend continues with stopping to consolidate and return to a sustainable path we would reaching five figures in just a month, honestly I don't think that will happen, is more likely that huge correction/pop happens before that unless there is a consolidation phase.

On the weekly chart we are just now starting to see the kind of growth that characterized mid to late March. (33% now vs 35%-46% then)

If things play out the same way now that they did then, we've got about 3 weeks left before some major exchange melts down and causes a panic.

Given the very short timeframes in which BTC evolves, for that kind of analysis I prefer the daily charts. And looking at the daily charts we really entered the parabolic growth phase suddenly and quickly, it smells fishy to me. At this pace we will double the current price Tuesday/Wednesday next week, and if that happens for me is a clear sign that panic is around the corner, and I will sell a modest chunk to secure some profits.

I for one hope this won't happen and price won't double for at least one month, volatility is nice but also not seeing your wealth changing 400% (for good and bad) in a few weeks

[Rampion]

We can talk about that once we actually top out. So far, we haven't even doubled from the 266 high.

This. It all depends on how quick we go. If we double $350 in just a few days, I will search for cover and secure some profits for sure. If it takes another month or more, I will sit comfortably and enjoy the ride, I think I will secure some profits at $1300 or so

/whishful thinking off

[NamelessOne]

Hi guys.  I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi".  I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.

You have returned to say "hi"! Most excellent. Have a good time at work!

[adamstgBit]

Gotta get back to work.  Have fun everyone.

yup Back to work everyone!
 

[adamstgBit]

Hi guys.  I've been trying to avoid the spec forum, but I decided to break down and jump back in to say "hi".  I'm pretty optimistic about bitcoin, but this move is surprising.

You have returned to say "hi"! Most excellent. Have a good time at work!

its always good to hear from proudhon

[maz]

So, one question: for how many in here buying BTC has been the best financial decision EVER??

My wife bought when the price was £7.80. She spent £5k and bought 641 coins, worth about £130k or so now.
This was probably the 2nd best decision she ever made (after answering "I do")

I have bought a small number of coins from time to time, but my 2nd best decision ever was to buy a bunch of 5870s back in January 2001.

Hat's off to the missus for having the balls to dump 5k back when it was £7. She was either a big believer or a big gambler

[seljo]

Should I buy or should I sell?   

[bclcjunkie]

moved all in when the prices were USD 180+ and after that baidu announcement... best decision ever.. and if i had more fiat right now i'd do go all in even at 350.. i still believe there's more upward movement for btc, just look at those flash crashes. recovery is amazing, it's just so different than pre-april bubble!

Next stop, $700

That will be a good spot to secure some profits

So, one question: for how many in here buying BTC has been the best financial decision EVER??

[theonewhowaskazu]

Gotta get back to work.  Have fun everyone.

Holy shit, I thought you died.

[Rampion]

So, one question: for how many in here buying BTC has been the best financial decision EVER??

My wife bought when the price was £7.80. She spent £5k and bought 641 coins, worth about £130k or so now.
This was probably the 2nd best decision she ever made (after answering "I do")

I have bought a small number of coins from time to time, but my 2nd best decision ever was to buy a bunch of 5870s back in January 2001.

Hat's off to the missus for having the balls to dump 5k back when it was £7. She was either a big believer or a big gambler

I guess that most BTC freaks like us are a little bit of both.

And this gamble fueled by faith is paying off so far, IMO investing what you can afford to lose into BTC is a no-brainer, historically has always been a huge win.

[N12]

it's just so different [than pre-april bubble!]

Here we go again.

[seljo]

Should I buy or should I sell?   

Buy and hold like a champ bro, this is going to $2000 at least, it's only the beginning, this uptrend is still sustainable.

I was thinking about The Clash