Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[InwardContour]

With big money coming in to Bitcoin now, plus China, I think a $300/$400 price tag is quite reasonable.

Most importantly, public perception is much different than 6 months ago.  Bitcoin is no longer viewed as "the popped bubble" that clearly was a scam and dismissible.  Bitcoin has surpassed the previous "bubble pop" in under 1 year.  The technology is actually taken more seriously.  People are taking the time to actually understand Bitcoin.  This is easily observable in just the media's presentation of Bitcoin over the past few weeks.  It's hard to think of a more powerful and motivating outcome, than something that fully recovers and surpassed a previous ATH in such little time.  That is a serious statement to people on the outside.  Public perception, when there's so much usage to gain, is most important.  To dismiss it as so insignificant is, I think, a mistake.

Thoughts in context.

sure, this is true, to an extent, but much of this is perception in the context of a bull market. but this is how it should feel in a strong bull market. that's the exuberance. good news is that much better and bad news is that much less important.

.....until reversal.

[ardana123]

When are the US senate hearings again?

[wilfried]

Seems like a nice level to take a breather.  
$500 (gox) in the next 2 days !  

did you read the CB blog today?~looks like some nice developments underway..barriers to regular folks buying in falling= greater acceptace it looks like!   i'm going to actually try to buy some off there just for the hell of it!*sounds legit!>>jmho<<

CB blog? Which blog is this?

great

[SheHadMANHands]

With big money coming in to Bitcoin now, plus China, I think a $300/$400 price tag is quite reasonable.

Most importantly, public perception is much different than 6 months ago.  Bitcoin is no longer viewed as "the popped bubble" that clearly was a scam and dismissible.  Bitcoin has surpassed the previous "bubble pop" in under 1 year.  The technology is actually taken more seriously.  People are taking the time to actually understand Bitcoin.  This is easily observable in just the media's presentation of Bitcoin over the past few weeks.  It's hard to think of a more powerful and motivating outcome, than something that fully recovers and surpassed a previous ATH in such little time.  That is a serious statement to people on the outside.  Public perception, when there's so much usage to gain, is most important.  To dismiss it as so insignificant is, I think, a mistake.

Thoughts in context.

sure, this is true, to an extent, but much of this is perception in the context of a bull market. but this is how it should feel in a strong bull market. that's the exuberance. good news is that much better and bad news is that much less important.

.....until reversal.

Good luck locating a reversal.  Here are some random possibilities:

- Up to $440, crash to $150s, settle at $250
- Up to $2400, crash to $600, settle at $900
- Up to $500, sit in $400s for 3 months...?

- etc etc ....

We could be no where near a peak, and you haven't provided any quantitative evidence to suggest this is the peak.  In April, didn't we go from like $30 to $266 (almost a 10x increase)?

I'm holding long term anyway, so I could care less about when/where the "peak" is, and to what level panic sellers may, at any moment, temporarily crash the market to.  I've occasionally taken a long position when I felt we've panic dipped further than expected, but that's about it.  You (not necessarily you specifically) probably shouldn't be investing in BTC though if you're constantly haunted by thoughts of crashing markets.  That can't be healthy.

[DougTanner]

Dropping.

[InwardContour]

With big money coming in to Bitcoin now, plus China, I think a $300/$400 price tag is quite reasonable.

Most importantly, public perception is much different than 6 months ago.  Bitcoin is no longer viewed as "the popped bubble" that clearly was a scam and dismissible.  Bitcoin has surpassed the previous "bubble pop" in under 1 year.  The technology is actually taken more seriously.  People are taking the time to actually understand Bitcoin.  This is easily observable in just the media's presentation of Bitcoin over the past few weeks.  It's hard to think of a more powerful and motivating outcome, than something that fully recovers and surpassed a previous ATH in such little time.  That is a serious statement to people on the outside.  Public perception, when there's so much usage to gain, is most important.  To dismiss it as so insignificant is, I think, a mistake.

Thoughts in context.

sure, this is true, to an extent, but much of this is perception in the context of a bull market. but this is how it should feel in a strong bull market. that's the exuberance. good news is that much better and bad news is that much less important.

.....until reversal.

Good luck locating a reversal.  Here are some random possibilities:

- Up to $440, crash to $150s, settle at $250
- Up to $2400, crash to $600, settle at $900
- Up to $500, sit in $400s for 3 months...?

- etc etc ....

We could be no where near a peak, and you haven't provided any quantitative evidence to suggest this is the peak.  

I'm holding long term anyway, so I could care less about when/where the "peak" is, and to what level panic sellers may, at any moment, temporarily crash the market to.  You probably shouldn't be investing in BTC though if you're constantly haunted by thoughts of crashing markets.  That can't be healthy.

re peaks, i made no such suggestions. are you talking to me? constantly haunted?

i was just talking about perceptions of the market. specifically, how people perceive the landscape in a bull market. it doesn't look so rosy when we see a real correction. when will we see it? i am not speculating about that so much. i was just talking about how the quote above is verging on "new paradigm" talk, which is only natural in a strong bull market. but that's why i take that thinking with a grain of salt.

sure, it's true, but people are vastly overstating the speed at which the BTC infrastructure and economy is maturing. because they want to explain a 600-700% price gain over a few months.

i am not worried about btc crash, haha...  

[Richy_T]

It's beautiful.  I'd love to see that, but the last 12 months of data instead.  Can you do that?

I don't actually have 12 months of data. I think I got Chartbuddy started just after the crash. I download the data from Gox each minute. It takes up quite a lot of space and I have archived some of it off (Though it's still easily available). I'm considering a different scheme for storing the data (just deltas rather than the full dataset which is large even when zipped).

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

It's beautiful.  I'd love to see that, but the last 12 months of data instead.  Can you do that?

I don't actually have 12 months of data. I think I got Chartbuddy started just after the crash. I download the data from Gox each minute. It takes up quite a lot of space and I have archived some of it off (Though it's still easily available). I'm considering a different scheme for storing the data (just deltas rather than the full dataset which is large even when zipped).

I figured it would be just the amount of BTC at each value range in a text file no?  I would still like to see it in it's entirety if it's at all possible  

Perhaps in can be stuffed into a database and consolidated that way?

[Wekkel]

Nice that price is not crashed by 10k dumps. Big fellows starting to understand that BTC @ $1,000 will attract a bigger public. So, let's start that rocket then....

[ChartBuddy]

[haightst]

i think you may want to upgrade your phone modem or something? LOL~ i'm seeing 429!  

[CryptStorm]

It's important to reconcile the scopes of perception here, considering that most of these scopes cannot see the other:

a) We are literally sitting staring at the screen, waiting, chatting while we *decide* if the charts are about to consolidate, go bullish, go bearish, hit the moon, etc. This *is*, we *are* the pulse of the btc speculation ecosphere. We are standing in the boiler room watching the machine pump heat--  because we can see it's working just fine, sometimes it's hard to believe that it's too warm or cold upstairs. Classic myopia.

b) We have no idea, for the most part, what the Chinese are doing, in terms of sentiment, other that heavily buying in steadily. They are likely speculators and folks just like us, who see the newest, shiniest thing, or realize the coming value of a mature crypto account register.

c) Many of us have friends who are newly interested in Bitcoin, they are approaching us, actually listening to the conversation about cryptos. These people were afraid we'd pass out tinfoil hats at last Thanksgiving (some of us have done so forever, such is the nature of visionary (ahem, nuts)).

d) The upcoming Senate hearing (on the 18th), VC's throwing money to startups that we haven't even really begun to see the product of (Kraken, Coinsetter...), Forbes articles and in general continually more positive news spin and coverage. The proletariate will be what they have always been, the peeps.

e) The googly trends chart... oh, what correlation it carries is astounding. If there ever was a cogent point for 'don't read into it too much' it's this chart (albeit it's a trailing one, sadly :-/).

f) Bitcoin is hugely successful in any context. We know that, but it will be all the more obvious in 20 years. Yeah, duh, the internet and money had a bastard child. Why wouldn't it rock the casbah. So, stepping away from the cliff, we should take some pride in being involved, and be humbled to see a change for the good, away from manipulable capital that seeks nothing but further vampiric reduction of liberty, while enforcing a crippling cancerous consumption mantra. What was great for industrialization is now going the way of the dodo--> P2P kills centralization.

g) Asset, commodity, currency, protocol or whatever, it will adhere to price discovery if easily exchanged. Playas gonna play, haterz gonna hatez.

Conclusion: rpitella's (sp?) chart is really pretty good, so far, until it's not. We're going up too fast (for the last hot 10 seconds), so if trading's what you like, there will be a chance to increase your BTC count. Long term, to the moon. Peace out folks, and don't forget to set your bitcoinreminders (.com).

[barbs]

I just secured my original outlay, so I'm sitting on 100% profit BTC.  it is a good price and I'm still in the game.

Edit: I had this thought this morning that we have gone up insanely fast, While we may go up more, I don't want to be greedy because I would be disappointed that I didn't secure my profits like in April.  I don't want to repeat that again, even though I do believe the price of 431 could be the low end and even if we dip we'll see this price again at some point.

[TERA]

Why do people assume that this is going to be another march/April style 800% bubble? You are forgetting that back then the time in between the last ATH of $32 was an entire 2 years of consolidation. This time it was only 6 months. Were likely to see a 2012 style increase instead.

[Vycid]

With big money coming in to Bitcoin now, plus China, I think a $300/$400 price tag is quite reasonable.

Most importantly, public perception is much different than 6 months ago.  Bitcoin is no longer viewed as "the popped bubble" that clearly was a scam and dismissible.  Bitcoin has surpassed the previous "bubble pop" in under 1 year.  The technology is actually taken more seriously.  People are taking the time to actually understand Bitcoin.  This is easily observable in just the media's presentation of Bitcoin over the past few weeks.  It's hard to think of a more powerful and motivating outcome, than something that fully recovers and surpassed a previous ATH in such little time.  That is a serious statement to people on the outside.  Public perception, when there's so much usage to gain, is most important.  To dismiss it as so insignificant is, I think, a mistake.

Thoughts in context.

sure, this is true, to an extent, but much of this is perception in the context of a bull market. but this is how it should feel in a strong bull market. that's the exuberance. good news is that much better and bad news is that much less important.

.....until reversal.

I think he's got a fair point about bad news being downplayed.

If we were in a downtrend, there'd probably be an outright panic about coin blacklisting. "The end of Bitcoin!" "Fungibility is dead!".

Anyway.

[Adrian-x]

How or where do you generate these 3D orderbook history charts?

Custom written code.

It's beautiful.  I'd love to see that, but the last 12 months of data instead.  Can you do that?

Every time someone sends Richy_T 10XBT the graphs improve exponentially.
Moleccccular created a this over time available on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifKS-UebUCI

[keewee]

Seems like a nice level to take a breather.  
$500 (gox) in the next 2 days !  

did you read the CB blog today?~looks like some nice developments underway..barriers to regular folks buying in falling= greater acceptace it looks like!   i'm going to actually try to buy some off there just for the hell of it!*sounds legit!>>jmho<<

CB blog? Which blog is this?

great

Link?

[CryptStorm]

Seems like a nice level to take a breather.  
$500 (gox) in the next 2 days !  

did you read the CB blog today?~looks like some nice developments underway..barriers to regular folks buying in falling= greater acceptace it looks like!   i'm going to actually try to buy some off there just for the hell of it!*sounds legit!>>jmho<<

CB blog? Which blog is this?

great

Link?

Why sure:
http://blog.coinbase.com/
 

[keewee]

Seems like a nice level to take a breather.  
$500 (gox) in the next 2 days !  

did you read the CB blog today?~looks like some nice developments underway..barriers to regular folks buying in falling= greater acceptace it looks like!   i'm going to actually try to buy some off there just for the hell of it!*sounds legit!>>jmho<<

CB blog? Which blog is this?

great

Link?

Why sure:
http://blog.coinbase.com/
 

Oh! CB=Coinbase, got it    Thanks

[Vycid]

Why do people assume that this is going to be another march/April style 800% bubble? You are forgetting that back then the time in between the last ATH of $32 was an entire 2 years of consolidation. This time it was only 6 months. Were likely to see a 2012 style increase instead.

Uh, because it's already quite clearly proven itself not to be 2012 style. Look at a graph again.