Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

Why don't you bring your stuff here, this is THE thread =)

chart courtesy to oper128

This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Jan	.005	.005	.42	6.0	16.4
Feb	.005	.005	.94	5.0	27
Mar	.005	.005	.83	4.9	58
Apr	.005	.005	1.31	5.0	118
May	.005	.005	7.1	5.1	121
Jun	.005	.008	18.5	6.1	104
Jul	.005	.06	14.0	8.2	86
Aug	.005	.06	9.8	11.1	105
Sep	.005	.06	5.6	11.6	122
Oct	.005	.11	3.5	11.6	163
Nov	.005	.26	2.7	11.6
Dec	.005	.24	3.5	13.4

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0025-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox
7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

UPDATE: dree's datapoints used, which will change the trendline slightly: y = 0,092x - 2,9124. R² = 0,91466. This is not yet updated in the charts, however (difference hardly noticeable). NOTE: x=1, when in Jan2009 (previously x=0)

Trendline target for November 2013: $296
Trendline target for December 2013: $365

(first post of rpietilas thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0)

[1714554083]

1714554083

[1714554083]

1714554083

[crazy_rabbit]

I think I was one of the last ones to successfully withdraw from gox, thankfully pulled out all I needed to buy my house before the withdraw problems started.

Although it was at an average of $120/btc, missed the 266 bubble and this runup... Would have been way better off with a mortgage.

You can talk about sellers remorse in a couple of years.

Still got plenty more.

Besides, remorse is the 5000btc wallet lost to a corrupted bitlocker partition, or close to that lost to pirate.

Jesus Christ, I can't imagine.

Truly no way to recover that partition?

Sent it off to 4 data recovery companies. Almost all datas intact, but the bitlocker metadata (including master key) are corrupt... 256 bit AES key

Well keep it cryofrozen till one day in the future when they can fix that too. :-)

[haightst]

I think I was one of the last ones to successfully withdraw from gox, thankfully pulled out all I needed to buy my house before the withdraw problems started.

Although it was at an average of $120/btc, missed the 266 bubble and this runup... Would have been way better off with a mortgage.

You can talk about sellers remorse in a couple of years.

Still got plenty more.

Besides, remorse is the 5000btc wallet lost to a corrupted bitlocker partition, or close to that lost to pirate.

Jesus Christ, I can't imagine.

Truly no way to recover that partition?

Sent it off to 4 data recovery companies. Almost all datas intact, but the bitlocker metadata (including master key) are corrupt... 256 bit AES key

Well keep it cryofrozen till one day in the future when they can fix that too. :-)

now the stock market peeps are outright begging me to sell them coins at summer vacation prices!!!LOLOLOLLL   ~spot price not cheap enuff for you?= how about 500?weeee

[molecular]

I think I was one of the last ones to successfully withdraw from gox, thankfully pulled out all I needed to buy my house before the withdraw problems started.

Although it was at an average of $120/btc, missed the 266 bubble and this runup... Would have been way better off with a mortgage.

You can talk about sellers remorse in a couple of years.

Still got plenty more.

Besides, remorse is the 5000btc wallet lost to a corrupted bitlocker partition, or close to that lost to pirate.

Jesus Christ, I can't imagine.

Truly no way to recover that partition?

Sent it off to 4 data recovery companies. Almost all datas intact, but the bitlocker metadata (including master key) are corrupt... 256 bit AES key

Well keep it cryofrozen till one day in the future when they can fix that too. :-)

That could actually be worth it.

[ChartBuddy]

[gandhibt]

I think I was one of the last ones to successfully withdraw from gox, thankfully pulled out all I needed to buy my house before the withdraw problems started.

Although it was at an average of $120/btc, missed the 266 bubble and this runup... Would have been way better off with a mortgage.

You can talk about sellers remorse in a couple of years.

Still got plenty more.

Besides, remorse is the 5000btc wallet lost to a corrupted bitlocker partition, or close to that lost to pirate.

Jesus Christ, I can't imagine.

Truly no way to recover that partition?

Sent it off to 4 data recovery companies. Almost all datas intact, but the bitlocker metadata (including master key) are corrupt... 256 bit AES key

Well keep it cryofrozen till one day in the future when they can fix that too. :-)

That could actually be worth it.

When the price is 50 000 USD/BTC that harddrive is worth 250 000 000 USD. There's some motivation to some brilliant hacker.

EDIT. ofc pint of beer can cost you 100 USD then...

[barbs]

I just got locked out of my gox account, it's asking me for a yubikey and stating Invalid code sent when i hit enter, I dont have a yubikey.

Now i was blocked for too many requests from my IP for 24 hours AND i can't log in, worked fine 2 hours ago.  They still havent responded to my support request.

Goxxed. Thats what I get for giving them a second chance.

[wachtwoord]

EDIT. ofc pint of beer can cost you 100 USD then...

Most hackers will work for a pint

[tarmi]

Goxxed. Thats what I get for giving them a second chance.

fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice...

[adamas]

As there is a high demand for a logscale ..  

[gandhibt]

I just got locked out of my gox account, it's asking me for a yubikey and stating Invalid code sent when i hit enter, I dont have a yubikey.

Now i was blocked for too many requests from my IP for 24 hours AND i can't log in, worked fine 2 hours ago.  They still havent responded to my support request.

Goxxed. Thats what I get for giving them a second chance.

You don't have 2fa? Your account maybe hacked? Is there a number in support where you could call? Try to recover your password.

[600watt]

I just got locked out of my gox account, it's asking me for a yubikey and stating Invalid code sent when i hit enter, I dont have a yubikey.

Now i was blocked for too many requests from my IP for 24 hours AND i can't log in, worked fine 2 hours ago.  They still havent responded to my support request.

Goxxed. Thats what I get for giving them a second chance.

You don't have 2fa? Your account maybe hacked? Is there a number in support where you could call? Try to recover your password.

relax. stay friendly. they will not take btc from your account. hopefully your password is/was safe.
my experience with them concerning issues like this was always good. i had an account that was sitting untouched between 2011 and 2013 (i thought it was lost, but it wasn´t)

[ChartBuddy]

[bnjmnkent]

I just got locked out of my gox account, it's asking me for a yubikey and stating Invalid code sent when i hit enter, I dont have a yubikey.

Now i was blocked for too many requests from my IP for 24 hours AND i can't log in, worked fine 2 hours ago.  They still havent responded to my support request.

Goxxed. Thats what I get for giving them a second chance.

You don't have 2fa? Your account maybe hacked? Is there a number in support where you could call? Try to recover your password.

relax. stay friendly. they will not take btc from your account. hopefully your password is/was safe.
my experience with them concerning issues like this was always good. i had an account that was sitting untouched between 2011 and 2013 (i thought it was lost, but it wasn´t)

Barbs, if you use Google Authenticator, you could try re-syncing the application.

[ChartBuddy]

[strawbs]

Why don't you bring your stuff here, this is THE thread =)

chart courtesy to oper128

This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Jan	.005	.005	.42	6.0	16.4
Feb	.005	.005	.94	5.0	27
Mar	.005	.005	.83	4.9	58
Apr	.005	.005	1.31	5.0	118
May	.005	.005	7.1	5.1	121
Jun	.005	.008	18.5	6.1	104
Jul	.005	.06	14.0	8.2	86
Aug	.005	.06	9.8	11.1	105
Sep	.005	.06	5.6	11.6	122
Oct	.005	.11	3.5	11.6	163
Nov	.005	.26	2.7	11.6
Dec	.005	.24	3.5	13.4

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0025-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox
7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

UPDATE: dree's datapoints used, which will change the trendline slightly: y = 0,092x - 2,9124. R² = 0,91466. This is not yet updated in the charts, however (difference hardly noticeable). NOTE: x=1, when in Jan2009 (previously x=0)

Trendline target for November 2013: $296
Trendline target for December 2013: $365

(first post of rpietilas thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0)

So for Christmas next year I can give myself retirement as a present?  Hold, hold, hold.

[crazy_rabbit]

I just got locked out of my gox account, it's asking me for a yubikey and stating Invalid code sent when i hit enter, I dont have a yubikey.

Now i was blocked for too many requests from my IP for 24 hours AND i can't log in, worked fine 2 hours ago.  They still havent responded to my support request.

Goxxed. Thats what I get for giving them a second chance.

You don't have 2fa? Your account maybe hacked? Is there a number in support where you could call? Try to recover your password.

relax. stay friendly. they will not take btc from your account. hopefully your password is/was safe.
my experience with them concerning issues like this was always good. i had an account that was sitting untouched between 2011 and 2013 (i thought it was lost, but it wasn´t)

Hey guys, this belongs in service discussion.

[Sitarow]

[Sitarow]

[Miz4r]

Interesting how this correction looks very similar to the one we saw at $205 (Bitstamp). Price went back up close to ATH again both times and consolidates there. If it plays out the same way we should stay just below ATH for a few more days, perhaps with a few small bear traps on the way to shake some silly bears out.