Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ajax3592]

This weekend will be the perfect time for to buy some more BTCs...

Let's hope it crashes down to 280 something on this weekend
Let's create some panic among all users here on Friday - "SELL SELL SELL Cash out before you can"
 

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[windjc]

With the congressional hearings in 6 days, I think we may be in a wait and hold period of time.

I do think there is a chance of a breakout or breakdown between now and then, but I bet it doesn't go too high or low.

Food for thought: In an email exchange I had today with Bitfinex, they told me they are getting roughly a million dollars of deposits a day. Which means the other exchanges are probably getting signficantly more than that. So there is money coming in, but not a lot of buying going on. And of course, if 10 million were coming into the 3 big exchanges a day, 10 million doesn't buy as many bitcoins as it once did.

But still, I think there is money to buy waiting to hit the markets.

More food for thought.  Since Saturday, a lot of money coming into the market was on margin, speculating for a recovering. I think margin is backing off because of the consolidation and profit taking while new money is hitting the market - basically a flatline.

However, if new money continues to come in, we will see margin pick back up and I expect things will try a 2nd push upwards.

But, I do think people want to see what Congress is going to say.

[jojo69]

Congress?

you mean some legacy nation state plenum  ?

[DougTanner]

btcchina's order book looks primed for a move one way or another.

i think its either going to go up or down

We'll yeah, but the point is that most of the western books look like they're in a holding pattern with nobody willing to provide any depth near the spot price.  BTCChina, on the other hand, has healthy depth building on the bids side.  That doesn't really tell you where things will go, but it is, I think, and indication that at the very least there should be significant movement one way or the other soon.  Sellers could look at it as a chance to liquidate significant amounts without much slippage, which would probably push the price downward.  Buyers might look at is as building competition for bitcoins, which could induce a healthy round of buying if somebody decides to break ranks and buy into the sell orders.  So there you go.

Wow, you're right, lots of consolidation from the first time we were here.

[bitcodo]

If they can have some control, they will let bitcoin alon. If not, they may want to destroy it.
http://www.acfcs.org/category/acfcs-news/

[Voodah]

Everyone please, stop the madness !

I don't wanna see any more posts (probably americans) with people saying saying China wants to see the USD go down.

This is outright wrong, you need to stop reading this Wall observer and go read the newspapers first.

China is the absolute #1 investor in USD. Get your facts straight.

Well, since you apparently have your facts straight, please point me to a source that verifies you claim that "China is the absolute #1 investor in USD".

They do own many billions worth of our bonds.

Yup, pretty much. It has been extremely conductive for their exporting strategy.

China is by far the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities.  At the end of July, the last month for which official statistics are available, it had stockpiled $1.2773 trillion in Treasuries.  The country is way in front of second-place Japan, whose portfolio was $141.9 billion smaller.  If you add in the Treasuries of autonomous Hong Kong, the hoard of the People’s Republic increases by $120.0 billion.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/10/06/what-if-china-stops-buying-u-s-government-debt/

FWIW though, in the last few weeks, this strategy appears to be shifting, but still, they hold most of the treasuries.

Largest foreign holder != #1 investor

The Fed and US citizens hold most of the treasuries.  How can you quote $1.3 trillion and then claim that is "most of the treasuries" when US debt is north of $16 trillion?  It looks like <10% from here.

Seems like you are wanting to discuss semantics to intentionally miss the point.

The point is actually pretty simple: If the USD were to go down tomorrow, China's economy and CNY would be among the most affected, if not the most.

Remember also that they thrive on exports. Unless you count the 28 countries in the EU as a whole, the US is their biggest buyer.

The depreciation of the USD is not in their best interest right now.

You can not sustain an economic strategy completely oriented to being a cheap exporter when you're suddenly not cheap anymore.

Very long-term might be different, as I said above, they seem to be starting to shift their US bond holding to Gold and other assets.

[ChartBuddy]

[gandhibt]

Everyone please, stop the madness !

I don't wanna see any more posts (probably americans) with people saying saying China wants to see the USD go down.

This is outright wrong, you need to stop reading this Wall observer and go read the newspapers first.

China is the absolute #1 investor in USD. Get your facts straight.

Well, since you apparently have your facts straight, please point me to a source that verifies you claim that "China is the absolute #1 investor in USD".

They do own many billions worth of our bonds.

Yup, pretty much. It has been extremely conductive for their exporting strategy.

China is by far the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities.  At the end of July, the last month for which official statistics are available, it had stockpiled $1.2773 trillion in Treasuries.  The country is way in front of second-place Japan, whose portfolio was $141.9 billion smaller.  If you add in the Treasuries of autonomous Hong Kong, the hoard of the People’s Republic increases by $120.0 billion.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/10/06/what-if-china-stops-buying-u-s-government-debt/

FWIW though, in the last few weeks, this strategy appears to be shifting, but still, they hold most of the treasuries.

Largest foreign holder != #1 investor

The Fed and US citizens hold most of the treasuries.  How can you quote $1.3 trillion and then claim that is "most of the treasuries" when US debt is north of $16 trillion?  It looks like <10% from here.

Seems like you are wanting to discuss semantics to intentionally miss the point.

The point is actually pretty simple: If the USD were to go down tomorrow, China's economy and CNY would be among the most affected, if not the most.

Remember also that they thrive on exports. Unless you count the 28 countries in the EU as a whole, the US is their biggest buyer.

The depreciation of the USD is not in their best interest right now.

You can not sustain an economic strategy completely oriented to being a cheap exporter when you're suddenly not cheap anymore.

Very long-term might be different, as I said above, they seem to be starting to shift their US bond holding to bitcoins.

That's right.

[ChartBuddy]

[mccorvic]

Looks like someone setup and executed the perfect bear trap on Stamp. Nice.

[CoinDox]

Looks like someone setup and executed the perfect bear trap on Stamp. Nice.

I did not catch the depth charts on that move, I was not at my desk when it happened. Do you have snapshot?

[barbs]

Looks like someone setup and executed the perfect bear trap on Stamp. Nice.

I did not catch the depth charts on that move, I was not at my desk when it happened. Do you have snapshot?

I just saw that too did they put up a huge ask wall and then buy into it themselves? I saw that bid wall come up and disspear just after

[barbs]

looks like the 0.5 btc arb bot is at it again

[mccorvic]

Looks like someone setup and executed the perfect bear trap on Stamp. Nice.

I did not catch the depth charts on that move, I was not at my desk when it happened. Do you have snapshot?

I just saw that too did they put up a huge ask wall and then buy into it themselves? I saw that bid wall come up and disspear just after

I guess they *could* have bought into it themselves, but I figured it was more they were watching the price slip down and pounced as soon as someone was dump enough to put up a wall.

600-700BTC buy or something like that.

[jojo69]

[electronistul]

I'm speculating that we'll be in the 360s area on stamp in a matter of hours (4-5).

[mccorvic]

I'm speculating that we'll be in the 360s area on stamp in a matter of hours (4-5).

As far this board goes, that prediction is so reasonable as to be unreasonable!

[electronistul]

I'm speculating that we'll be in the 360s area on stamp in a matter of hours (4-5).

As far this board goes, that prediction is so reasonable as to be unreasonable!

And it's also funny seeing the immediate reaction on buying whatever's left at 350, so people don't miss the train.
Let's try this again:
I'm speculating that in the next few hours, we'll hit 270 again on Stamp. 

[crazy_rabbit]

When bitcoin is stable, everyone complains. When bitcoin is volatile everyone else complains. :-)

i'm happy at $350. Let it sink in. Marinate in it. Get used to the idea of it being the bottom. :-)

[Ivanhoe]

Let's hope they manage to break 2400 again, that will ignite some new buying.