Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[freebird]

Anyway we might not be ready to rally just yet. I think the chart ought to do something like this:

I agree. And another day or two of consolidation like this would be good to build more of a base at these levels, before the next big upswing which should peak in the $500-700 range in a few weeks.

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[tutkarz]

I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.

Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.

It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.

This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.

If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.

Of course, China will not like this.

You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.

I was also worried when people were selling bitcoins and wanted to convince them so they stop. But now I'm not worried any more. They want to sell? Let them. The true value of bitcoin is rising anyway because of ever bigger infrastructure that is created every day. Which means, the price will be higher no matter what and should not come from holding coins in pockets. Just be patient and don't sell your coins if you need some profit that way but still I much more prefer to simply create my own site that accepts bitcoin instead of speculation or holding. It benefit's everyone that way.

[adamas]

Anyway we might not be ready to rally just yet. I think the chart ought to do something like this:

 Or this:

[maz]

I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.

Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.

It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.

This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.

If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.

Of course, China will not like this.

First negative statement from Chinese government and it will be raining cheap coins. This 'china rally' looks good, feels like bitcoins going somewhere but the slightest sniff of the Chinese people feeling any sort of financial 'freedom' and the rug will be pulled from under them. In the long run this will probably be bad. Price will plummit, hobby investors who bought in at 300+ will see their investments dissapear. Not good for bitcoin.

Take us back to a pre-China steady incline, we will go
slower but stronger in the long run.

Damn that sounds a bit depressing.

[tarmi]

big buys on bearstamp.

400 today?

[gandhibt]

I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.

Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.

It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.

This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.

If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.

Of course, China will not like this.

First negative statement from Chinese government and it will be raining cheap coins. This 'china rally' looks good, feels like bitcoins going somewhere but the slightest sniff of the Chinese people feeling any sort of financial 'freedom' and the rug will be pulled from under them. In the long run this will probably be bad. Price will plummit, hobby investors who bought in at 300+ will see their investments dissapear. Not good for bitcoin.

Take us back to a pre-China steady incline, we will go
slower but stronger in the long run.

Damn that sounds a bit depressing.

Other option is that Chinese gov loves what bitcoin does to the great USD and doesn't care other things.

[rpietila]

First negative statement from Chinese government and it will be raining cheap coins. This 'china rally' looks good, feels like bitcoins going somewhere but the slightest sniff of the Chinese people feeling any sort of financial 'freedom' and the rug will be pulled from under them. In the long run this will probably be bad. Price will plummit, hobby investors who bought in at 300+ will see their investments dissapear. Not good for bitcoin.

Take us back to a pre-China steady incline, we will go
slower but stronger in the long run.

Damn that sounds a bit depressing.

It is your government that tries to take away the last vestiges of freedom from its people. China has been abused enough, and finally has a chance. And does not need your help, thank you.

[macsga]

It's gonna be a...

day today!!!

[seanneko]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

[strawbs]

typically we get huge rises then a crash/correction on sunday, then stagnation until thursday then we get mad optimistic on fri/sat then we're back to the sunday slump/correction.

I would be interesting to compile a chart to see mean % gains/losses for each weekday

[San1ty]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

Choo Choo Motherfucker!

[solex]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

Yep. Don't be fooled by the massive ask overhang, the trend is against it.

[Trade101]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

huge turnover already today, might really see the 400 $ / BTC today :-)

[oakpacific]

I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.

Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.

It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.

This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.

If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.

Of course, China will not like this.

You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.

I was also worried when people were selling bitcoins and wanted to convince them so they stop. But now I'm not worried any more. They want to sell? Let them. The true value of bitcoin is rising anyway because of ever bigger infrastructure that is created every day. Which means, the price will be higher no matter what and should not come from holding coins in pockets. Just be patient and don't sell your coins if you need some profit that way but still I much more prefer to simply create my own site that accepts bitcoin instead of speculation or holding. It benefit's everyone that way.

I meant you can't stop Chinese online sellers doing  Bitcoin sales, even if the government cracks down on exchanges. It may even be the case that government is aware of the futility of such crack down and decides to leave us alone. Anyway, if Bitcoin gets really big, what's stopping them from building several huge farms and mine the hell out of it? Who wants to compete with China in Bitcoin mining cost?

[accord01]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

Yep. Don't be fooled by the massive ask overhang, the trend is against it.

Don't be silly guys.  What happened was that the bitfinex funds got through to bitstamp.

[accord01]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

huge turnover already today, might really see the 400 $ / BTC today :-)

that's true, we might.  but that $10 spike was from bitfinex.  The Americas and euro is barely even awake so far.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

New money just arrived. I saw the Bitstamp asks reappear on Bitfinex (they disappear when BFX's USD reserve on stamp are down to zero), and immediately stamp started to spike. Of course it isn't only BFX money that arrived on stamp, but probably all transfers today arriving at this time.

[ChartBuddy]

[bits4books]

I'm about certain the second we reach $400 it get's ruined by an influx of sell orders.

That's why I hate that people have a "goal" or "target" for when they are going to cashout. Everyone always mentions $400 or $500 etc.

Just hold it dammit, cause you're not making my itchy finger any better 

[niothor]

I'm about certain the second we reach $400 it get's ruined by an influx of sell orders.

That's why I hate that people have a "goal" or "target" for when they are going to cashout. Everyone always mentions $400 or $500 etc.

Just hold it dammit, cause you're not making my itchy finger any better 

Ok , ok , we'll all start making goals like 399.87 and 401.45.
Will that be better?