Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bits4books]

I'm about certain the second we reach $400 it get's ruined by an influx of sell orders.

That's why I hate that people have a "goal" or "target" for when they are going to cashout. Everyone always mentions $400 or $500 etc.

Just hold it dammit, cause you're not making my itchy finger any better 

Ok , ok , we'll all start making goals like 399.87 and 401.45.
Will that be better?

NO!

Just hold it until bitcoin reaches my goal 

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[niothor]

I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.

Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.

It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.

This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.

If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.

Of course, China will not like this.

You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.

I was also worried when people were selling bitcoins and wanted to convince them so they stop. But now I'm not worried any more. They want to sell? Let them. The true value of bitcoin is rising anyway because of ever bigger infrastructure that is created every day. Which means, the price will be higher no matter what and should not come from holding coins in pockets. Just be patient and don't sell your coins if you need some profit that way but still I much more prefer to simply create my own site that accepts bitcoin instead of speculation or holding. It benefit's everyone that way.

I meant you can't stop Chinese online sellers doing  Bitcoin sales, even if the government cracks down on exchanges. It may even be the case that government is aware of the futility of such crack down and decides to leave us alone. Anyway, if Bitcoin gets really big, what's stopping them from building several huge farms and mine the hell out of it? Who wants to compete with China in Bitcoin mining cost?

If it comes to :
Electricity cost > Russia
Workforce > Bangladesh or India

[ajax3592]

Anyway we might not be ready to rally just yet. I think the chart ought to do something like this:

 Or this:

In how many days do you expect it to hit its lower limit ~200 that you've dotted along in the chart ?

[niothor]

I'm about certain the second we reach $400 it get's ruined by an influx of sell orders.

That's why I hate that people have a "goal" or "target" for when they are going to cashout. Everyone always mentions $400 or $500 etc.

Just hold it dammit, cause you're not making my itchy finger any better 

Ok , ok , we'll all start making goals like 399.87 and 401.45.
Will that be better?

NO!

Just hold it until bitcoin reaches my goal 

Well this has to be the most altruistic thing i heard in the last.. 5 minutes or so

[oakpacific]

I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.

Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.

It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.

This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.

If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.

Of course, China will not like this.

You can't stop people selling bitcoins, how can you? They will just sell it under different names in their online shops if you try to crack down.

I was also worried when people were selling bitcoins and wanted to convince them so they stop. But now I'm not worried any more. They want to sell? Let them. The true value of bitcoin is rising anyway because of ever bigger infrastructure that is created every day. Which means, the price will be higher no matter what and should not come from holding coins in pockets. Just be patient and don't sell your coins if you need some profit that way but still I much more prefer to simply create my own site that accepts bitcoin instead of speculation or holding. It benefit's everyone that way.

I meant you can't stop Chinese online sellers doing  Bitcoin sales, even if the government cracks down on exchanges. It may even be the case that government is aware of the futility of such crack down and decides to leave us alone. Anyway, if Bitcoin gets really big, what's stopping them from building several huge farms and mine the hell out of it? Who wants to compete with China in Bitcoin mining cost?

If it comes to :
Electricity cost > Russia
Workforce > Bangladesh or India

But when you have to take in both factors...

Also there is IC fabrication cost, land, cooling, construction, etc...

[niothor]

But when you have to take in both factors...

Also there is IC fabrication cost, land, cooling, construction, etc...

You know , there are lots of countries out there who are manufacturing electronics , and many who export those into China
Don't be so sure Malaysia , Thailand and many others are taken out of the equation
Remember when those floods hit Thailand and the hdd price went to the skies?

[notthematrix]

I'm still hesitant. I don't really see how the bubble can un-pop in 5 days... that would be have to be some sort of record!

In inflationary currencies you have reverse bubbles

[oakpacific]

But when you have to take in both factors...

Also there is IC fabrication cost, land, cooling, construction, etc...

You know , there are lots of countries out there who are manufacturing electronics , and many who export those into China
Don't be so sure Malaysia , Thailand and many others are taken out of the equation
Remember when those floods hit Thailand and the hdd price went to the skies?

Electronic components, yes. But when you want to build an entire miner from scratch with everything being purchased at home so that you can be sure there is not a backdoor somewhere.....

And don't forget the commies have unrivalled capability to amass public resources should they decide to get involved...

[ChartBuddy]

[molecular]

It helps... but it was never that hard to get money into China. It's getting it out that has always been the problem. Bitcoin can certainly help though. I'm not sure how much in demand USD are these days... but people do always need to buy things overseas.

LOL, once you finally can get them, they are not wanted anymore.. 

HAHA, it's like once price is right to sell Bitcoins, you don't need to sell anymore.

[bnjmnkent]

Is it possible to predict/estimate, when bitfinex funds hit bitstamp?

[molecular]

WTF just happened on Bitstamp? $10 growth in 10 minutes after a huge stagnant period?

Yep. Don't be fooled by the massive ask overhang, the trend is against it.

Hmmm. yummi walls and rubble. nomnomnom.

[molecular]

Don't be silly guys.  What happened was that the bitfinex funds got through to bitstamp.

This.

[molecular]

I think this is not applicable. It should be done on a logscale. It wont work there.

[molecular]

Is it possible to predict/estimate, when bitfinex funds hit bitstamp?

they already have:

[BitchicksHusband]

I'm just speculating that most of the information is still there, that maybe only a few bits are wrong, or that something is bit-shifted, or whatever (again, not an expert). It seems much, much less computationally intensive to try to repair the key than crack a wallet blind.

The first few entire sectors of the drive are unreadable.

Shit, sorry man. Some kind of nasty hardware failure? I'd have thought the recovery guys could extract the data.

Yep, physically unreadable, even with cleanroom work. I've accepted the loss... If I really needed coins, it would be alot easier to hire someone to go beat the stolen ones out of pirateat40.

At this point I'm just holding onto the 5k I have left with an iron fist.

Would you mind publishing the address(es)? So I can add them to my provably lost bitcoin list: https://docs.google.com/a/ij.hk/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ahdy3Je_nYdOdFVocm4yTzhZOW1waWd6SFJIVHUwYUE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

FFS did someone really lose a wallet with 27000 BTC

I would never leave my bed again.

One word.

Pizza.

Another one, pirateat40 

aka.

TRENDON T SHAVERS
License number - 019295421
License type - DL
Address - 2305 S CUSTER APT 1507
DOB - Sep 21 1982
City/Zip - MCKINNEY 75070
2305 S Custer Rd Apt 1507
Mckinney,TX 75070-6222
(972) 369-0895



Yes, I'm starting to get sore about this again.

If people know that much about him, why not lob the FBI a phone call?  It would be a big headline if he were caught and the blockchain provides a lot of evidence.

[LOADING.READY.RUN]

Is it possible to predict/estimate, when bitfinex funds hit bitstamp?

They said in their general service thread here that they're sending funds every day ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=229438.msg3555611#msg3555611 ). So they should be available at the typical bitstamp bank transfer arrival time, which is around 8-12 UT.

[rpietila]

I think this is not applicable. It should be done on a logscale. It wont work there.

I have more stuff in you-know-what-logscale thread. We are actually already doing overspeed. This month's trendtarget was revised down to $296. The big retracement of Apr 10 started when we were 3.9x trendtarget.

[gandhibt]

I think this is not applicable. It should be done on a logscale. It wont work there.

I have more stuff in you-know-what-logscale thread. We are actually already doing overspeed. This month's trendtarget was revised down to $296. The big retracement of Apr 10 started when we were 3.9x trendtarget.

Why don't you bring your stuff here, this is THE thread =)

BTW. Did you guys succeed in your "dump and get more coins" plan?

[molecular]

I think this is not applicable. It should be done on a logscale. It wont work there.

I have more stuff in you-know-what-logscale thread. We are actually already doing overspeed. This month's trendtarget was revised down to $296. The big retracement of Apr 10 started when we were 3.9x trendtarget.

Good to know.

But even if you're doing "pattern matching" as adamas seems to have done, it seems to me a logscale is really more applicable.