Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder where r0ach is getting the energy from to do what he's doing. He clearly has 0 followers, noone rarely agrees with him and he is being bashed nonstop. Or does he really think he is smarter than everyone else and he is genuinely trying to convert us from stupidity of cryptoworld to the high intelligence of silver trading? Lol.

Just wondering, maybe I should take a book of psychology to understand someone who seems smart but is so utterly stupid.

Many woulda-been, coulda-been Bitcoin millionaires become bitter, anti-Bitcoin zealots.

I got into the boat in 2013, but sold all my stash in 2015 because of reasons, would be a multi-millionaire now didn't get me bitter though, that's just life.

But back I am, hopefully smarter this time, started to rebuy in Nov 2017.

Yes, there are more "normal" peeps that attempt to learn from their mistakes and to develop better strategies. It can take a long time to move away from our tendencies to repeat our mistakes, and sometimes identify areas in which we can develop better plans and to place ourselves into a better position to prepare ourselves for luck. 

You know the saying that there is no such thing as pure luck because luck is largely a product of opportunity coming from preparation?

 I would not mind hearing some more of your details and plans on how you are expecting to go forward.  Hopefully, you understand that bitcoin remains the main place to emphasize your long term efforts, even while there remains ways to make short term profits from some of the alts.. perhaps?

[1714152006]

1714152006

[1714152006]

1714152006

[1714152006]

1714152006

[1714152006]

1714152006

[Toxic2040]

Could you please post one of your TA charts that actually got the price right in, let's say, the last 6 months? I'd  be glad to see if it's worth watching you or if I better scroll down these huge charts

No..I cant. Fear not..see below.

I am feeling something from your posts, Toxic poxit.

Seems like every few days your chart prognostics are shifting with the prevailing winds.  

UP then SIDEWAYS then UP then DOWN then SIDEWAYS then UP then DOWN then UP then SIDEWAYS and now seemingly DOWN.  

Kind of like rollercoaster.....



Makes me feel like this:

snip

Are you looking to me to post charts that you can make investment strategies from? I thought this was a speculation forum. [redacted]

You want me to give my honest opinions? They change as does the market. You want me to be a cheerleader...see above. Bitcoin is doing what it always does. What ever the fuck it wants. I think the consensus is a non-issue so far and many are waiting around for a pump to acquire more coin. Markets do not work that way. If everyone thinks it going up it most likely will not, instead it will do the opposite and pull the rug out from under you. Just to mess you up. Surprisingly, I am somewhat comforted with the fact there has not been a huge pump and dump so far...it shows sign of a maturing market. We are still not there imho though..hence..
I will see you all sometime next year. ciao.


 

[realr0ach]

What he doesn´t understand is that metals (especially silver) are subject to a supply response.
If the silver price would increase substantially, miners around the world would simply ramp up their
operations, which would cause the price to revert to previous levels.

Your metals analysis is way off.  The current metals industry is simply arbing excess energy supply (mostly in the form of things like diesel) and converting it into bars of silver and gold.  The diesel is being paid for with fiat dollars. Instead of conjuring fiat paper from thin air to mine silver and gold, what happens when you're required to pay silver and gold in order to mine silver and gold?  You completely overlooked this paradigm shift.

If it requires me spending a kilo of silver in order to mine 1/2 a kilo of silver, I'm probably not going to do it.  There is no massive supply response as you claimed by silver and gold going to the moon because you're now required to pay for energy in silver and gold as well.  The only real side effect is a spontaneous, massive price increase in the price of the two metals in order to fit all that economic activity.  The ESF will attempt to rig metals right up to the very last second and then suddenly silver will go from it's completely rigged price to the equivalent of hundreds of dollars an ounce with gold doing the same thing, just not anywhere near the gains of silver.

You don't hold metals in the year 2018 because you're hoping to make some paltry couple percentage points a year, you hold them because the Brzezinski doctrine has completely collapsed, the world is going multi-polar, the dollar is a dead man walking, and silver and gold will re-assert themselves as the base of Exter's Pyramid and unit of account of everything.  

Cryptocurrencies are all designed to centralize, non-fungible, have built-in rent seeking middlemen, and don't remove counterparty risk.  They have absolutely no traits required of money whatsoever.  The only purpose of cryptocurrencies is to detour as many people as possible and put them on the wrong side of the trade when the inevitable paradigm shift of energy being denominated in metals instead of dollars occurs.  It doesn't matter how many autistic Linux users or fly by night conmen like Tai Lopez pretend bitcoin can win that battle, the fundamentals do not exist and the world powers tag-team of Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and others have already indicated the plan is gold and silver.

[Raja_MBZ]

Cryptocurrencies are all designed to centralize, non-fungible, have built-in rent seeking middlemen, and don't remove counterparty risk.

If that's the definition of cryptocurrencies, I wonder how the definition of fiat will look like in your dictionary.

[cAPSLOCK]

See you all sometime next year.

Trying to pull a MasterLuc I see??

[Samarkand]

....  The ESF will attempt to rig metals right up to the very last second and then suddenly silver will go from it's completely rigged price to the equivalent of hundreds of dollars an ounce with gold doing the same thing, just not anywhere near the gains of silver.

...

Cryptocurrencies are all designed to centralize, non-fungible, have built-in rent seeking middlemen, and don't remove counterparty risk.  ...

Let´s assume that your theory is correct for a second. What exactly is the argument why silver will have higher gains than Gold
in this scenario? The industrial usage?

Where exactly is the counterparty risk in Bitcoin? Of course theoretically the big miners could collude to blacklist
your coins or try to double-spend, but in reality the incentive structure of the system disincentivizes fraudulent behavior.
If a miner would actually perform a fraudulent act like that the whole trust in Bitcoin would be gone and they would
be sitting on hardware and other infrastructure that is now worthless instead of making a fortune by continuing to play by
the network´s rules (and they obviously would have to write off hundreds of million of $ in investment).

This is one of the ingenious elements in Bitcoin´s design. The incentive structure ensures that
the only powers that could theoretically cheat the system stay honest.

The only counterparty risk I see is if you store your coins with an exchange or some other kind of service. But
everyone here heavily dissuades newcomers from doing this with the common slogans like "Not your private keys,
not your coins" and similar stuff. Of course some people choose to ignore this advice, but they get
Bitfinex´ed or Gox´ed sooner or later.

[mindrust]

I wonder where r0ach is getting the energy from to do what he's doing. He clearly has 0 followers, noone rarely agrees with him and he is being bashed nonstop. Or does he really think he is smarter than everyone else and he is genuinely trying to convert us from stupidity of cryptoworld to the high intelligence of silver trading? Lol.

Just wondering, maybe I should take a book of psychology to understand someone who seems smart but is so utterly stupid.

Many woulda-been, coulda-been Bitcoin millionaires become bitter, anti-Bitcoin zealots.

I got into the boat in 2013, but sold all my stash in 2015 because of reasons, would be a multi-millionaire now didn't get me bitter though, that's just life.

But back I am, hopefully smarter this time, started to rebuy in Nov 2017.

I am pretty much in the same boat as you. I also started to collect last year in May/June which was way before the $20k pump but obviously I didn't buy enough. I became serious after this February...

You should know however, being serious this time won't guarantee you another 10x pump. Well it will happen eventually but might not happen in the time frame you are (we are) expecting. Most people here expect another 10x in the next 2 years which might be too optimistic.

We may have to wait at least 5 years to get our lambo's and I am actually OK with this.

[infofront]

https://hackernoon.com/written-evidence-submitted-to-her-majestys-treasury-committee-s-digital-currencies-inquiry-on-8162d4c299ab
@Beautyon_ with a straight bat.

Great read

[cAPSLOCK]

https://hackernoon.com/written-evidence-submitted-to-her-majestys-treasury-committee-s-digital-currencies-inquiry-on-8162d4c299ab
@Beautyon_ with a straight bat.

Great read

Yes.  I hope some of Her Majesty's people take a gander at it.

[Wekkel]

Thanks for the charts, Toxic. I am less pessimistic due to the course of events since the recent market peak. Too much bullishness from my perspective to go down to $3,xxx but for the same reason, this could also mean that your scenario will materialise. I would say: the better. The more pain, the more impressive the ensuing rally. Since I take the long view, I am by no means fazed or offended by a bearish point of view.

[jbreher]

all the supermarginal ore that they neglect they cant just go back and get later.

Umm... why?

[PoolMinor]

Same BS different day.

If that's the definition of cryptocurrencies, I wonder how the definition of fiat will look like in your dictionary.

Please stop quoting that ass-hat. You won't be changing his mind on any subject related to Bitcoin. (No one has in the last 5+ years)

If you seek to have a conversation with him, do it privately.

Thanks

[Rosewater Foundation]

Good evening Bitcoinland. My condolences.

[PoolMinor]

Are you looking to me to post charts that you can make investment strategies from? I thought this was a speculation forum. If you want my professional opinion on charts and a strategy guide email me at toxic2040@pm.me
I charge about .06btc per hour at current rates.

You want me to give my honest opinions? They change as does the market. You want me to be a cheerleader...see above. Bitcoin is doing what it always does. What ever the fuck it wants. I think the consensus is a non-issue so far and many are waiting around for a pump to acquire more coin. Markets do not work that way. If everyone thinks it going up it most likely will not, instead it will do the opposite and pull the rug out from under you. Just to mess you up. Surprisingly, I am somewhat comforted with the fact there has not been a huge pump and dump so far...it shows sign of a maturing market. We are still not there imho though..hence..
I will see you all sometime next year. ciao.

This follows the same level of thinking I have here. If i post anything about Bitcoin not going up or sideways-- These people here shit on me. Note the dates I posted in this post. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg33563137#msg33563137

Edit: Here is the post of JJG quoting it, just so you know I didn't change it after the fact.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg33569831#msg33569831

[Agapios]

Well everything is going to shitter again

[buyandhold]

BitMex resurrection in 10 mins

[Agapios]

The good news is that the Sun will come out.........just not tomorrow, and I will bet my bottom dollar. I would be a heavy buyer around April 6th, and again mid-May. And early 2019.

P.S. this chart is from the future, your results may vary.

it would be weird if someone would be lucky out of 50 people throwing their predictions
I think long term predictions are all....well you cant predict some very bad news and then its behaviour on bitcoin.

You scared me a bit 1st lol. But i see you overshoot by a mile (lower) already in start of may
dude dont scare me like this

[Rosewater Foundation]

[PoolMinor]

it would be weird if someone would be lucky out of 50 people throwing their predictions
I think long term predictions are all....well you cant predict some very bad news and then its behaviour on bitcoin.

You scared me a bit 1st lol. But i see you overshoot by a mile (lower) already in start of may
dude dont scare me like this

Yes, I have been wrong at a couple key times in the past. Once recently when i predicted a change in price for March 5 2018, and again in February 2017. Prior to that I had some good buying predictions September 27, 2015  and again for September 25 2016


Like I said before, I am correct about 53% of the time. Bitcoin does what it wants. TA only shows the past, and will give the analyst only educated guesses of the future.

That chart is just a paste from 2014-2015, I annexed zeros to the numbers and changed 2015 to 2019. Bitcoin works in ~4 year periods all centered around the halvening.

[Rosewater Foundation]

I annexed Poland

R0ach? That you under there?