Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Harley997]

Indeed, this whole discussion and peer bullying is stupid. Enough with the Rpietila bashing.

Let the guy speak his mind, the same as we all do. I know lots of people don't like the way he expresses himself or agree with his analysis, but be honest now..

I'd much rather read any of rpietila's post (I always find them interesting and thought-provoking, even when I disagree with what he's saying or how) than most of the sub-par content I'm used to finding both here and  in other places like Reddit.

Let's bask in how different we all are and how rich that makes us. No need to alienate people, specially active people who contribute original content on a regular basis.

Some of his analytic threads are interesting (like the SSS one).

All his calls are wrong and he is a contrarian indicator.

All his tales about successful trading, manipulation, etc. are proven bullshit. He makes most of that up.

Finally, his business model is to create the character of a super-wealthy super-successful trader so he can attract the attention of newcomers and then sell them BTC with a markup. It's pretty obvious and he has even admitted it in some sanity moments he has had.

shit were not going to a million $?

[1715090109]

1715090109

[Voodah]

Indeed, this whole discussion and peer bullying is stupid. Enough with the Rpietila bashing.

Let the guy speak his mind, the same as we all do. I know lots of people don't like the way he expresses himself or agree with his analysis, but be honest now..

I'd much rather read any of rpietila's post (I always find them interesting and thought-provoking, even when I disagree with what he's saying or how) than most of the sub-par content I'm used to finding both here and  in other places like Reddit.

Let's bask in how different we all are and how rich that makes us. No need to alienate people, specially active people who contribute original content on a regular basis.

Some of his threads are interesting and his "general" advices are sound (like the SSS thread).

All his price calls are wrong and he is a contrarian indicator.

All his tales about successful trading, manipulation, etc. are proven bullshit. He makes most of that up.

Finally, his business model is to create the character of a super-wealthy super-successful trader so he can attract the attention of newcomers and then sell them BTC with a markup. It's pretty obvious and he has even admitted it in some sanity moments he has had.

Yes, I get what you're saying, but still, I prefer such a character than a one-opinion monochromatic forum.

Bitcoin was created and pushed from ground zero by contrarians and eccentric minds. When we lose that, we become just like the systems before us.

[ChartBuddy]

[simonk83]

I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.

ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.

Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).

I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.

I have a simple model that shows (among others) that after bubble pop, as long as the price is 0.2 or more log-units over the trendline, it is not possible to sell at a profit in 1-6 months timeframe. It is quite sobering: by selling at $628 today, the buyback at a profit is guaranteed for many months to come.

Chances that the model ends up faulty (that despite their mutual differences, 2 previous bubbles have something intrinsic in common that the 3rd does not have) are 20-30%, which means that the odds are way in favor. With this kind of odds it is Kelly optimal to risk about 40% of your net worth.

Any doubts I had that you might have been as knowledgeable as you claim to be have just been washed away in one stroke.

Sadly your mind apparently cannot grasp the concept that in a chaotic, dynamic system, what happened in the past cannot be used to predict the future unless the circumstances are exactly the same.

Not to mention: it was far more likely that the two bubbles would show some mutual similarity (both being bubbles) than no similarity at all. But just because those similarities exist does not mean should be understood as anything more than stochastic noise; it could have just as easily been any other of the countless possible permutations that you would now be using to "guarantee profit".

I'm close to ignoring him to be honest.   He's the type that says very little with a lot of words, but I doubt his sincerity and skills.  And while he certainly spends a lot of time telling everyone how much money he has, I've seen no evidence of that.  I have however seen that picture of him posing in front of someone else's Rolls Royce and pretending it's his.

Maybe he has rich friends, but hey, there are a hell of a lot of new rich people in the world as of the last few months, many of us in this thread included.

I don't pander to ego generally.  It annoys me.  And it's often those who spend so long telling everyone how amazing they are that are end up being quite the opposite in reality.

Less big man talk, and if you want people to actually pay attention to what you say, give them a reason to.

[JimboToronto]

Oy vey.

Or is that haista paska?

 

[chriswilmer]

 

Where does everyone find these amazing pictures of bears getting destroyed? They're great! Seems like there is one for every occasion.

[TERA]

A candle is forming.

[Voodah]

Where does everyone find these amazing pictures of bears getting destroyed? They're great! Seems like there is one for every occasion.

This one in particular is from the game Skyrim, if I am not mistaken.

[nanobrain]

Relevant: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/penny-stock-traders-diary-our-brains-are-hard-wired-get-us-investing-trouble

I've seen that before and it's rather vague re. patterns...it is something of a theoretical leap.  However, we are 'hard-wired' for optimism...you should enjoy this
http://positivepsychologynews.com/news/louisa-jewell/2011062118294
which discusses Tali Sharot's work.

And by the way....did you ever post that poem you owe me?  

[Harley997]

seems altcoins are dropping across the board..... any idea if this means anything?

[Vycid]

A candle is forming.

That tends to happen on candlestick charts.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

seems altcoins are dropping across the board..... any idea if this means anything?

returning to some form of sanity....

[Harley997]

seems altcoins are dropping across the board..... any idea if this means anything?

returning to some form of sanity....

but in regards to bitcoin?

[virtualfaqs]

Lol. This is the stupidest fucking thread derail in the history of bitcointalk.

The price hasn't been going anywhere the last 24 hours other than bouncing between 880-1000. We need something to fill the time. 

[TERA]

A candle is forming.

That tends to happen on candlestick charts.

I was going for most accurate speculation.

Omg the trades are being made.

[I_bitcoin]

I like Risto, if he is all braggadocio then that is fine by me.   He is still fun to read and I hope to meet him at the BTC 1k party .

[Spaceman_Spiff]

seems altcoins are dropping across the board..... any idea if this means anything?

returning to some form of sanity....

but in regards to bitcoin?

You mean that Altcoin over bitcoin ratio is going down, correct?
For me that means we are returning to a more normal level of speculation. 
I think many altcoins were being heavily overhyped/pumped.

[RaphM]

For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.
No man can serve two masters.

[Harley997]

seems altcoins are dropping across the board..... any idea if this means anything?

returning to some form of sanity....

but in regards to bitcoin?

You mean that Altcoin over bitcoin ratio is going down, correct?
For me that means we are returning to a more normal level of speculation. 
I think many altcoins were being heavily overhyped/pumped.

yeah yeah, i get that, my thoughts too. what im asking is, do you think this has any relevance to the btc/usd ratio?

[NewLiberty]

We will have to agree to disagree: i) For you cryptographically signed messages have no significance, ii) for me they have a very strong significance.

Legally binding in USA
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/15/7001

And much of the world
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_signatures_and_law