Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[strawbs]

Finally, some action!!  Gox <700 within the hour?

EDIT:  and maybe the hate posts might subside a bit too, now that we have something else to watch 

[a_Swede]

When a thread gets spammed like this, it could only mean that some people, for some reason, try to hide valuable information with letters.

Hint2n00b; Read this thread through, you'll learn ALOT.

Stop spamming!

Sorry for spam.

[Wekkel]

Waiting for rptiela's $350 and lower....  

[Walsoraj]

Who is catching some knifes?

My teeth are waiting below $200.

[DaSheep]

...

A little tip: You should really stop rating things in your live by quantity.
It doesn't matter how much you have of something, it only matters what you can do with it and if you'd be such a pro you would know that placing huge bids at stupid prices actually pull the market in their direction.

"You are not your job, you're not how much money you have in the bank. You are not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You are not special. You're not a beautiful and unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else. We're all part of the same compost heap. We're all singing, all dancing crap of the world."

"“The things you used to own, now they own you.”
― Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club

[wachtwoord]

It doesn't matter how much you have of something, it only matters what you can do with it

That's what she said!

[F-bernanke]

...

A little tip: You should really stop rating things in your live by quantity.
It doesn't matter how much you have of something, it only matters what you can do with it and if you'd be such a pro you would know that placing huge bids at stupid prices actually pull the market in their direction.

"You are not your job, you're not how much money you have in the bank. You are not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You are not special. You're not a beautiful and unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else. We're all part of the same compost heap. We're all singing, all dancing crap of the world."

"“The things you used to own, now they own you.”
― Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club

Damn right, love the quote.

Lets stop enslavement, consumerism and hang the banksters!

[N12]

Damn right, love the quote.

Lets stop enslavement, consumerism and hang the banksters!

Meanwhile, us Bitcoiners are licking the boots of fund managers, billionaires and Goldman Sachs.

It is quite ironic.

[adsdas]

  weak bounce, last time to sell!!

[wachtwoord]

weak bounce, last time to sell!!

Lol screw that!

[mb300sd]

weak bounce, last time to sell!!

Buy now and make a strong bounce!

You make your own destiny!

[granathus]

weak bounce, last time to sell!!

Buy now and make a strong bounce!

You make your own destiny!

Whales maybe.

[hdbuck]

[Sitarow]

[dgarcia]

New ATH next week?

[adamstgBit]

New ATH next week?

 

[adsdas]

sell before china wakes up    

[MicroFi]

I'm going to have a whisky and then I'm off to bed. No use in watching this and getting nervous, when you're hodling anyway.

[wachtwoord]

I'm going to have a whisky and then I'm off to bed. No use in watching this and getting nervous, when you're hodling anyway.

i gotz to hodl until we get to $5,000 or so...   then i'm going to space

One small step for Goat!

[sir faps]

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.

I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.

Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.

It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".

I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.

Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.

I try to avoid online warzones so I'm not commenting on that, but I must add that I have highly enjoyed your analysis and hope you continue forward regardless of peoples reactions. I think you deserve kudos for predicting the drop to the 400s before we had even hit $1250. Your trendline is also in sync with a number of other people's trendline predictions I've seen on this forum and around the net. As far back as August a couple others had targeted $1000 for May-June 2014 with a possible bubble in between. I don't care about day to day up or down movement, the real action is in the big moves mid/long term. No one is being forced to follow what you are posting, I've been impressed by your analysis thus far. =)

+1

I read rpietila's analysis on why we would see low 400s, bought when it hit that price target, and have been very happy since.

Thank you rpietila for helping me get coins at the right price. Don't listen to the kooks, keep doing what you're doing