Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[YoYa]

Today silver is a great buy and tomorrow it is a horrible buy.
I do not remember the name, but I think it was something "raw...."?

[hdbuck]

One piece of advide: Don't follow anyone

+1

its warrrrr  

edit @Parazyd i did the exact opposite when u told me to buy 2 days ago at around 240$ on stamp...  

I'm not following, are you saying that you istened to me or you didn't listen to me?

Don't listen to me I'm usually not quite sober

im saying i did NOT listened  

(and i made a mistake in my original post it was around 800$ on gox... cuz i would have been a fool for not buying at 240$ on stamp... you may be drunk right not if u did not see that..    )

[Jomppe]

Today silver is a great buy and tomorrow it is a horrible buy.
I do not remember the name, but I think it was something "raw...."?

 

[Parazyd]

If someone was to photoshop spaghetti on that duckface....

[Jomppe]

YoYa http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYB1PoPGfq8

[gandhibt]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

you mean that stamp dips lower relatively?

[YoYa]

Today silver is a great buy and tomorrow it is a horrible buy.
I do not remember the name, but I think it was something "raw...."?

 

Okay, I'll be nice, I'm not Rawdog, but if you would read my words in George Takei's voice your experience will be improved immensely.

[Jomppe]

Today silver is a great buy and tomorrow it is a horrible buy.
I do not remember the name, but I think it was something "raw...."?

 

Okay, I'll be nice, I'm not Rawdog, but if you would read my words in George Takei's voice your experience will be improved immensely.

I see.

[rpietila]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

you mean that stamp dips lower relatively?

By selling at stamp now, you get about 5-6% less. But that is more than made up if the dip goes 15% lower in stamp (like it did last time). At least I think it is a +EV, even fees are lower in stamp.

One month average Gox/Bitstamp is about 6.2%

[granathus]

So how will the price move between now and january 1.?

I think pretty stable at current price.

[Jomppe]

So how will the price move between now and january 1.?

I think pretty stable at current price.

Unfortunately you are wrong (with relatively high probability). The price won't be stable at current levels.

[T.Stuart]

So how will the price move between now and january 1.?

I think pretty stable at current price.

Unfortunately you are wrong (with relatively high probability). The price won't be stable at current levels.

That's right... It's going to go up.

[dgarcia]

So how will the price move between now and january 1.?

I think pretty stable at current price.

Unfortunately you are wrong (with relatively high probability). The price won't be stable at current levels.

That's right... It's going to go up.

New ATH soon?

[T.Stuart]

Not sure about ATH yet but an uptrend is right

[mmitech]

well I will threw my thoughts here.

someone pulling data from the 2011 crash and April 2013 crash and the price movements in between and trying to compare that data to today's market is just insane, the situation is all different, and for the sake of the argument just look at the time it took for a recover in 2011 and the time to recover from April 2013. one conclusion : people got educated about these crashes, so many people waiting for the same thing.... unless there will so bad news or some big fish decide to cash out we are watching a slow growth with some corrections in between ...  (not you rpietila, you are still a tiny fish for me a sardine as a single sardina in other word )


BTW a big fish will sell that amount of Bitcoin off the books  

[Odalv]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

[burple]

Rpietila seems a reputable in his views.
I think we all should read his writings, learn him, try to figure out his mood and based on this, sell or buy coins.
The price will go quite low if we can trust him - usually we can. He made his bearish call correctly last time while all were laughing at his face, spitting on him and considering him as slain of God, the man of sorrows, the friend of pains etc.

After all, he made his trades and tons of money. Now those of you who do not follow his paths right now will loose as the price eventually crashes.
He is making money so why shouldn't I do it with him? I hope you guys here are also in the same boat with me. It is not that difficult to turn from bull to bear. I did it after I found Rpietila did it also.  

Sounds like legit advice.

I'd totally be down for some bitcoin tarding again, but I hodl because I'm trying to put myself in a good position to pay long term capital gains (best, reasonable, compliance case) without any possible complications and obligation by having any USD or BTC on foreign exchanges.  

Given the position I'm trying to get into for compliance, short term tarding would just be foolish.  Add to that that I think by the time I'm ready to liquidate a significant portion they'll be worth more than they are today, I'm hodling, hodling from bitcoin tarding.

If you're a US citizen and you're trading with more than $10k, and haven't considered the implications of foreign exchange and tax implications of realizing profit, etc, good luck.

I understand any gain on a trade in US tax law under $200 does not need to be reported. Is this why trading under 10k is a way to keep below that $200 limit. Or am I way off on this?

[Jomppe]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

[T.Stuart]

what would cause that stamp and gox are somewhat closer together %-wise vs what they were before this down move?

I don't know but currently selling in stamp, because it gives better relative value...

Good luck finding fool who will cash out at $350. Wait maybe he is comming. :-)

The ones who are going to cash out will do obcviously from 500 all the way to current level. The rest selling pressure comes from the paniquers who are afraid of BTC falling all the way to 50 USD/BTC - they will be the ones who opress the price to 300 dollarish-levels.

You're sounding more like Nostradamus with every post 

[oda.krell]

Let's go through a number of points how this is going to resolve. First, if you don't mention time frames, your analysis fails already, so I'll crudely break this down into short and long term.

Short term (say, this weekend, plus next week) I see:
a) several relevant short-to-medium term trends are active, among them 6h EMA30 (that performs extremely well in my backtests on recent data). Price remains above that one, as well as the quicker hourly EMA150. For a slightly slower perspective, 1d EMA30, i.e. the 1 month trend line is a focal point: price hovers just above it. I don't want to claim it provides support, not enough volume for that, but we should see if it holds in the next days.
b) bid/ask ratio is going down right now across all exchanges. That's usually a bearish sign, but in combination with a stagnating price, it's less drastic in my experience.
c) by a (relatively) crude method I use, based on a mean of the volume-weighted price of the peak and low of the most recent price swing, we're *right* on top of that mean. Similarly to my point about 1d EMA30, that's leads to a rather unsatisfactory "it could swing either way, but the next days should resolve it one way or the other".

Long term perspective is generally even more difficult to predict. Based on how peak/correction cycles played out historically, I would be extremely surprised if we've already seen the end of the correction. Late January/Early February is more likely based on how previous corrections played out wrt time. Price targets are difficult because it all depends on whether the December 18 low was really the bottom, or just an intermediate step in a larger more forceful downtrend, or alternatively, a long drawn out decline. I still see the possibility that daily SMA100 was active as support on that crash, and the final capitulation will be higher than the low of December 18, but that's not a strong conviction I hold, at best an informed guess.