Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[justusranvier]

http://r-g-b.me/

That's the closest thing to Snow Crash I've ever seen.

[BitChick]

Thanks wachtwoord, there are bulls here who could handle the event of another monstrous bear market and a long period of consolidation = boredom, but they are, based on my impression, very few.

Of course, they will tell you that today is different and conjure up some very losely price connected "fundamentals". But it comes down to "today must be different, because today it's my money at stake".

Ok. So is your prediction that this is the beginning of 2011 all over again? A bear market where we reach final support at below 100 and where we dont see ATHs again until 2015?

If so, just say it clearly so we can all understand where you stand here. I, for one, would greatly like to archive your answer to this question.

I don't think we will. I just don't think we will go up x10 or even x100 every year as many of you guys expect.

It's funny how you would like to have a single statement so you can point at me should it (not) happen. This is a game of probabilities, and coincidentally (even though I am not trying to achieve it – I'm merely limiting my risk to preserve purchasing power, and always gladly sacrifice nominal BTC for that), I'm still up on my BTC since start of trading. I also have Bitcoins that I never touch, as a hedge.

I can tell you what I view as probable, and what I view as improbable, but I have a feeling that this might not interest you.

I think most of us would love to see the price go up x10 or x100 each year but I would think that we should be content with even a x2 or x3 increase.  It would still beat most investment opportunities at that rate.

But realistically if Bitcoin is gaining traction and more and more people want them, then the price has to increase just because of the limited supply.  If you can convince me that the market is almost fully saturated and that we will not have 100X more people (or 100x more fiat) investing next year then sure, the growth will stop or stabilize but I am pretty confident that we are not at that point yet.

[ChartBuddy]

[windjc]

Thanks wachtwoord, there are bulls here who could handle the event of another monstrous bear market and a long period of consolidation = boredom, but they are, based on my impression, very few.

Of course, they will tell you that today is different and conjure up some very losely price connected "fundamentals". But it comes down to "today must be different, because today it's my money at stake".

Ok. So is your prediction that this is the beginning of 2011 all over again? A bear market where we reach final support at below 100 and where we dont see ATHs again until 2015?

If so, just say it clearly so we can all understand where you stand here. I, for one, would greatly like to archive your answer to this question.

I don't think we will. I just don't think we will go up x10 or even x100 every year as many of you guys expect.

It's funny how you would like to have a single statement so you can point at me should it (not) happen. This is a game of probabilities, and coincidentally (even though I am not trying to achieve it – I'm merely limiting my risk to preserve purchasing power, and always gladly sacrifice nominal BTC for that), I'm still up on my BTC since start of trading. I also have Bitcoins that I never touch, as a hedge.

I can tell you what I view as probable, and what I view as improbable, but I have a feeling that this might not interest you.

Of course it would interest me. What does not interest me is when you bring up 2011. This sounds like FUD to me. Go back and read my history of posts. I challenge you to find one where I said anything similar to the fact that BTC will go up x10 or x100 each year. I do not think one exists.

I am bullish on 2014. I personally believe the VC and eco-system development of tools to bring Bitcoin to the mainstream + the "coolness" of accepting btc as businesses (like Overstock, I expect other large ones to follow in 2014) + the general positive tone from FINCEN and the U.S. Senate + the ETF and other potential money from Wall Street tilt the scales in favor of the bulls for the next 12 months.  Do I think that x10 is possible in 2014 given all these scenarios? I certainly wouldn't bet on it. But I would be no more surprised than had you told me two months ago we would be at $1240 in Nov.

Do I think we could be in a bear market for the next 6 months. Sure, its possible.  20 months? I would bet against it, unless something VERY bearish happens. And then bitcoin might never recover if that was the case.

I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox.

But you've been around the bitcoin block a few times so, yes, I would be interested in your honest beliefs about probability.

[adamstgBit]

Thanks wachtwoord, there are bulls here who could handle the event of another monstrous bear market and a long period of consolidation = boredom, but they are, based on my impression, very few.

Of course, they will tell you that today is different and conjure up some very losely price connected "fundamentals". But it comes down to "today must be different, because today it's my money at stake".

Ok. So is your prediction that this is the beginning of 2011 all over again? A bear market where we reach final support at below 100 and where we dont see ATHs again until 2015?

If so, just say it clearly so we can all understand where you stand here. I, for one, would greatly like to archive your answer to this question.

I don't think we will. I just don't think we will go up x10 or even x100 every year as many of you guys expect.

It's funny how you would like to have a single statement so you can point at me should it (not) happen. This is a game of probabilities, and coincidentally (even though I am not trying to achieve it – I'm merely limiting my risk to preserve purchasing power, and always gladly sacrifice nominal BTC for that), I'm still up on my BTC since start of trading. I also have Bitcoins that I never touch, as a hedge.

I can tell you what I view as probable, and what I view as improbable, but I have a feeling that this might not interest you.

Of course it would interest me. What does not interest me is when you bring up 2011. This sounds like FUD to me. Go back and read my history of posts. I challenge you to find one where I said anything similar to the fact that BTC will go up x10 or x100 each year. I do not think one exists.

I am bullish on 2014. I personally believe the VC and eco-system development of tools to bring Bitcoin to the mainstream + the "coolness" of accepting btc as businesses (like Overstock, I expect other large ones to follow in 2014) + the general positive tone from FINCEN and the U.S. Senate + the ETF and other potential money from Wall Street tilt the scales in favor of the bulls for the next 12 months.  Do I think that x10 is possible in 2014 given all these scenarios? I certainly wouldn't bet on it. But I would be no more surprised than had you told me two months ago we would be at $1240 in Nov.

Do I think we could be in a bear market for the next 6 months. Sure, its possible.  20 months? I would bet against it, unless something VERY bearish happens. And then bitcoin might never recover if that was the case.

I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox.

But you've been around the bitcoin block a few times so, yes, I would be interested in your honest beliefs about probability.

what if thats all priced in tho

[windjc]

Thanks wachtwoord, there are bulls here who could handle the event of another monstrous bear market and a long period of consolidation = boredom, but they are, based on my impression, very few.

Of course, they will tell you that today is different and conjure up some very losely price connected "fundamentals". But it comes down to "today must be different, because today it's my money at stake".

Ok. So is your prediction that this is the beginning of 2011 all over again? A bear market where we reach final support at below 100 and where we dont see ATHs again until 2015?

If so, just say it clearly so we can all understand where you stand here. I, for one, would greatly like to archive your answer to this question.

I don't think we will. I just don't think we will go up x10 or even x100 every year as many of you guys expect.

It's funny how you would like to have a single statement so you can point at me should it (not) happen. This is a game of probabilities, and coincidentally (even though I am not trying to achieve it – I'm merely limiting my risk to preserve purchasing power, and always gladly sacrifice nominal BTC for that), I'm still up on my BTC since start of trading. I also have Bitcoins that I never touch, as a hedge.

I can tell you what I view as probable, and what I view as improbable, but I have a feeling that this might not interest you.

Of course it would interest me. What does not interest me is when you bring up 2011. This sounds like FUD to me. Go back and read my history of posts. I challenge you to find one where I said anything similar to the fact that BTC will go up x10 or x100 each year. I do not think one exists.

I am bullish on 2014. I personally believe the VC and eco-system development of tools to bring Bitcoin to the mainstream + the "coolness" of accepting btc as businesses (like Overstock, I expect other large ones to follow in 2014) + the general positive tone from FINCEN and the U.S. Senate + the ETF and other potential money from Wall Street tilt the scales in favor of the bulls for the next 12 months.  Do I think that x10 is possible in 2014 given all these scenarios? I certainly wouldn't bet on it. But I would be no more surprised than had you told me two months ago we would be at $1240 in Nov.

Do I think we could be in a bear market for the next 6 months. Sure, its possible.  20 months? I would bet against it, unless something VERY bearish happens. And then bitcoin might never recover if that was the case.

I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox.

But you've been around the bitcoin block a few times so, yes, I would be interested in your honest beliefs about probability.

what if thats all priced in tho

What if the wall street money and the products that haven't been launched by Circle.com and others, and the US exchanges that are in the process of being licensed in all 50 states, and the large businesses that may accept bitcoin but havent yet ---> what if that's ALREADY priced in???

Lol. Well, in that case, we're probably in a bear market.

[TERA]

I think if we can't even hold the price anymore WITH the Chinese manipulation then things are looking pretty bad. I mean imagine what happens when china has bad news again.

[N12]

What I want to say is really this: If you view yourself as a permabull, just make sure you have arranged everything in such a way that you will not end up being a permapig, selling near the bottom of a bear market believing either that Bitcoin can never recover or that it will go down much further.

Part of this arrangement is psychological preparation. If you cling to inflated expectations, it will likely hurt you by reversing should the unthinkable happen. The other part is of course hedging, if needed.

BitChick, the price doesn't necessarily correlate with usage because the price can far outrun it. Believe me, the latter half of the bear market until winter 2012 was one of the most productive Bitcoin periods, and it was also the worst one with regards to price appreciation.

Of course it would interest me. What does not interest me is when you bring up 2011. This sounds like FUD to me. Go back and read my history of posts. I challenge you to find one where I said anything similar to the fact that BTC will go up x10 or x100 each year. I do not think one exists.

I am bullish on 2014. I personally believe the VC and eco-system development of tools to bring Bitcoin to the mainstream + the "coolness" of accepting btc as businesses (like Overstock, I expect other large ones to follow in 2014) + the general positive tone from FINCEN and the U.S. Senate + the ETF and other potential money from Wall Street tilt the scales in favor of the bulls for the next 12 months.  Do I think that x10 is possible in 2014 given all these scenarios? I certainly wouldn't bet on it. But I would be no more surprised than had you told me two months ago we would be at $1240 in Nov.

Do I think we could be in a bear market for the next 6 months. Sure, its possible.  20 months? I would bet against it, unless something VERY bearish happens. And then bitcoin might never recover if that was the case.

I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox.

But you've been around the bitcoin block a few times so, yes, I would be interested in your honest beliefs about probability.

I view it as improbable that this bubble will challenge its ATH anytime soon. I think it is probable that we will have several more months of either downtrend or consolidation. IF we go to ~100 billion market cap anytime soon, I would view a multi year bear market as the most probable option. My views are based on past Bitcoin history (charts), sentiment and my understanding of this world. I may be wrong, but my motive is capital preservation while still allowing my to enjoy Bitcoin's growth, as I have done in the past.

"I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox."

I've been bearish ever since the $900 peak more than a month ago (except for 2 short term trades). Even then I have brought up 2011 and got laughed at, so I hope you don't pin this on me. I have also been bullish for several weeks before that, it's easy enough to infer from my posting history. I am also noticing an increased amount of bears here lately.

[YoYa]

Thanks wachtwoord, there are bulls here who could handle the event of another monstrous bear market and a long period of consolidation = boredom, but they are, based on my impression, very few.

Of course, they will tell you that today is different and conjure up some very losely price connected "fundamentals". But it comes down to "today must be different, because today it's my money at stake".

Ok. So is your prediction that this is the beginning of 2011 all over again? A bear market where we reach final support at below 100 and where we dont see ATHs again until 2015?

If so, just say it clearly so we can all understand where you stand here. I, for one, would greatly like to archive your answer to this question.

I don't think we will. I just don't think we will go up x10 or even x100 every year as many of you guys expect.

It's funny how you would like to have a single statement so you can point at me should it (not) happen. This is a game of probabilities, and coincidentally (even though I am not trying to achieve it – I'm merely limiting my risk to preserve purchasing power, and always gladly sacrifice nominal BTC for that), I'm still up on my BTC since start of trading. I also have Bitcoins that I never touch, as a hedge.

I can tell you what I view as probable, and what I view as improbable, but I have a feeling that this might not interest you.

I think most of us would love to see the price go up x10 or x100 each year but I would think that we should be content with even a x2 or x3 increase.  It would still beat most investment opportunities at that rate.

But realistically if Bitcoin is gaining traction and more and more people want them, then the price has to increase just because of the limited supply.  If you can convince me that the market is almost fully saturated and that we will not have 100X more people (or 100x more fiat) investing next year then sure, the growth will stop or stabilize but I am pretty confident that we are not at that point yet.

What if....it takes longer to get to saturation than you expect and you have to talk the long walk of faith while you wait for your losses to return to profit? Easy to say you'd do it now, but when your entire future is down over 60-80% what then, what of your concerns for the future at that point and everything you have riding on it?

The future is bright, I agree, the road there is something different altogether. Bitcoin has had a three year bullmarket to the moon, a 2 year bear market would not be inappropriate for it to consolidate and prove it's worth towards future all time highs, but alas none of us can count those chickens until they are actually hatched.

[aminorex]

it seems clear that everyone and her brother are short-term bearish (hence has already sold everything not nailed down) and long-term bullish (hence has nailed everything left down twice, and then bolted it and welded the door shut).  i am finding it increasingly difficult to imagine who, then, is left to sell anything?  the guy loaded bought his doges from?

[windjc]

What I want to say is really this: If you view yourself as a permabull, just make sure you have arranged everything in such a way that you will not end up being a permapig, selling near the bottom of a bear market believing either that Bitcoin can never recover or that it will go down much further.

Part of this arrangement is psychological preparation. If you cling to inflated expectations, it will likely hurt you by reversing should the unthinkable happen. The other part is of course hedging, if needed.

BitChick, the price doesn't necessarily correlate with usage because the price can far outrun it. Believe me, the latter half of the bear market until winter 2012 was one of the most productive Bitcoin periods, and it was also the worst one with regards to price appreciation.

Of course it would interest me. What does not interest me is when you bring up 2011. This sounds like FUD to me. Go back and read my history of posts. I challenge you to find one where I said anything similar to the fact that BTC will go up x10 or x100 each year. I do not think one exists.

I am bullish on 2014. I personally believe the VC and eco-system development of tools to bring Bitcoin to the mainstream + the "coolness" of accepting btc as businesses (like Overstock, I expect other large ones to follow in 2014) + the general positive tone from FINCEN and the U.S. Senate + the ETF and other potential money from Wall Street tilt the scales in favor of the bulls for the next 12 months.  Do I think that x10 is possible in 2014 given all these scenarios? I certainly wouldn't bet on it. But I would be no more surprised than had you told me two months ago we would be at $1240 in Nov.

Do I think we could be in a bear market for the next 6 months. Sure, its possible.  20 months? I would bet against it, unless something VERY bearish happens. And then bitcoin might never recover if that was the case.

I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox.

But you've been around the bitcoin block a few times so, yes, I would be interested in your honest beliefs about probability.

I view it as improbable that this bubble will challenge its ATH anytime soon. I think it is probable that we will have several more months of either downtrend or consolidation. IF we go to ~100 billion market cap anytime soon, I would view a multi year bear market as the most probable option. My views are based on past Bitcoin history (charts), sentiment and my understanding of this world. I may be wrong, but my motive is capital preservation while still allowing my to enjoy Bitcoin's growth, as I have done in the past.

"I'm mostly aggravated that this board, which up to 6 weeks ago, was fairly friendly, non-partial, and informative, as become part and parcel with the BTC-E trollbox."

I've been bearish ever since the $900 peak more than a month ago (except for 2 short term trades). Even then I have brought up 2011 and got laughed at, so I hope you don't pin this on me. I have also been bullish for several weeks before that, it's easy enough to infer from my posting history. I am also noticing an increased amount of bears here lately.

Well there is certainly a case for why we might go down or consolidate for several months like we did in April.

Although there is something inside of me that cautions to believe that the future is that obvious.  I think you may be right as far as Bitcoin's ability to overextend itself. However, I am of the opinion that if Bitcoin truly gets widely adopted as either/combination of a currency, commodity, or transfer of money system then there will be a point sometime in the future of massive growth. I agree with the Winklevosses and others that believe that if it goes up and out, it will go up and out faster than we imagined.

[windjc]

I would also like to add this point, as I have not seen it mentioned (maybe I just missed it).

But I feel that if I had discovered Bitcoin in 2010 or 2011 that I would have A LOT harder time justifying the prices that Bitcoin is at today.  If I had seen Bitcoin when it was new, only a step above Farmville money - had I watched it be traded as if it were worth something, while people were scamming each other and bitcoin was forked and the exchanges were hacked. If I had seen all that, seen a time where I could buy bitcoin for .10 cents or even $2 --> had I lived through that, I might be slightly staggered by todays price.

Instead, I learned about Bitcoin in April. Right before the first big run up. And for 4 months I researched it, read every article, every discussion, every breakdown from the leading minds around the world that had something to say, good or bad. And then I invested.  And because of that, the price doesn't seem outrageous to me.

I suspect there is some of this psychology alive in other people - some like Blitz and some like myself.

[ChartBuddy]

[aminorex]

the phrase 'magic internet money' has a lot of resonance.  for those who do not understand it, the phrase captures the inherent absurdity of placing fiduciary trust in a mysterious incantation promoted by the primary current source of misinformation disinformation chicanery and charlatanry.  for those who do understand it, it captures the awe of a technological masterpiece, the marvel of the untrammeled vistas of future innovation, the absence of counterparty risk,  and the creative power of value added through network effects.

[N12]

I agree with you wind, it definitely alters your perspective. Just look at my first posts on this board. Another aspect is how much capital you work with (how long, if ever, would it take to regain it?) and how much it has already appreciated. The more my capital grew, the easier I found it to be more patient and not be afraid as much of "missing out". So those two things definitely affect how I view things and thus my postings.

By the way, you guys should absolutely check out http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/. It's insane. I don't even know how they can sustain this hype. It really is at least as active as r/bitcoin.

[YoYa]

I would also like to add this point, as I have not seen it mentioned (maybe I just missed it).

But I feel that if I had discovered Bitcoin in 2009 that I would have A LOT harder time justifying the prices that Bitcoin is at today.  If I had seen Bitcoin when it was new, only a step above Farmville money - had I watched it be traded as if it were worth something, while people were scamming each other and bitcoin was forked and the exchanges were hacked. If I had seen all that, seen a time where I could buy bitcoin for .10 cents or even $2 --> had I lived through that, I might be slightly staggered by todays price.

Instead, I learned about Bitcoin in April 2011. Right before the first big run up. And for 4 months I researched it, read every article, every discussion, every breakdown from the leading minds around the world that had something to say, good or bad. And then I invested.  And because of that, the price doesn't seem outrageous to me.

I suspect there is some of this psychology alive in other people - some like Blitz and some like myself.

FTFY, it's not that those of us from the beginning see the price as outrageous, no! not at all in any kind of way!

Rather we've experienced the joys of discovery and remember all too well that things are not as simple or as straightforward as we once expected them to be.

But it really doesn't matter, we're still here come high or low tide. Hopefully you will too, it's a question of preparation and avoiding the pain that can come with unexpected paths to the end destination.

[ElectricMucus]

the phrase 'magic internet money' has a lot of resonance.  for those who do not understand it, the phrase captures the inherent absurdity of placing fiduciary trust in a mysterious incantation promoted by the primary current source of misinformation disinformation chicanery and charlatanry.  for those who do understand it, it captures the awe of a technological masterpiece, the marvel of the untrammeled vistas of future innovation, the absence of counterparty risk,  and the creative power of value added through network effects.

I think you got the two mixed up.

[N12]

Bitcoin is the copper to Litecoin's orange to Dogecoin's dogshit.

[YoYa]

By the way, you guys should absolutely check out http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/. It's insane. I don't even know how they can sustain this hype. It really is at least as active as r/bitcoin.

Unexpected consequences.......Dogecoin is the perfect educational vehicle for how cryptocurrency works to people who wouldn't otherwise give a damn!

Shiiiit...that's heavy.

 

[TERA]

it seems clear that everyone and her brother are short-term bearish (hence has already sold everything not nailed down) and long-term bullish (hence has nailed everything left down twice, and then bolted it and welded the door shut).  i am finding it increasingly difficult to imagine who, then, is left to sell anything?  the guy loaded bought his doges from?

Perhaps bitcoin is bigger than this forum and the people calling the shots are not posting their book here. In fact I thought that the going theory was that bitcoin was being accumulated by corporations now. If people say that the bitcoin is run by corporations but then they also say forum posters control the price and forum poster's sentiment can be used to reverse-determine the price, then that is a conflict and one must be false. Either

A) Bitcoin price is controlled by corporations and people outside this forum, in which we cannot predict the price using forum sentiment.

or

B) The price is still in fact controlled by forum posters, and everything else has been an illusion. In this case, the price does not belong at this level to begin with.