Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

[oda.krell]

f(h)=e^h
h(x)=e^x

f(x)=e^ex

That's a double exponential instead of a double-log S curve, but the same transformation applies there too.

Nice. Only, that's not the right composition for the scenario you described, where the numerator exponentially increases in value and the denominator exponentially decreases in value. You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?

[macsga]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

Don't listen to TERA... He's HODLING!

[byronbb]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

U mad?

[macsga]

f(h)=e^h
h(x)=e^x

f(x)=e^ex

That's a double exponential instead of a double-log S curve, but the same transformation applies there too.

Nice. Only, that's not the right composition for the scenario you described, where the numerator exponentially increases in value and the denominator exponentially decreases in value. You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?

I don't know if you have the patience reading all this in the following page, but the far bottom graphs might give you an idea what you are looking for. I've expressed my opinion on this earlier in this thread but among my enormous urge for trolling this might as well got forgotten.

http://journal.fluid-power.net/journal/issue29/software29.html

[Peter R]

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I know, I know I participated in the previous discussion of that idea. Didn't we conclude that the well known S shaped "tech adoption" curve would still be a straight line when mapped to log. Why does BTC deserve a "super S", if I may ask?

If we define "super S" as faster than exponential growth over the early portion of the S-curve, then I think we can rationalize this (doesn't mean its correct though).  

Assumptions:

- bitcoin adoption, x, is small compared to its theoretical potential adoption
- the amount of people that hear about bitcoin is proportional to the number of bitcoin users (who keep bringing it up).
- the probability that after hearing about bitcoin, a person becomes a user, is k

I don't feel like being rigorous, but I think we can roughly see that bitcoin growth could then be modelled by the differential equation: dx / dt = k x, which of course has the familiar "exponential growth" solution.

But, I think we can be reasonable sure that k is *not* constant, but instead depends on how many users there currently are.  I say this because I have noticed that the general "guy at the bar" is much more interested and eager to talk about bitcoin after the November media blitz, than prior to this.  Prior to the April growth spurt, no one really cared at all.    

So, lets say: k = c x and then our differential equation becomes: dx / dt = c x^2, which has a hyperbola as a solution.  


[uberbull]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/uberbull]

[adamstgBit]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

no way it wont even get past 760 ( Stamps )

[justusranvier]

You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?

The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

[dgarcia]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

I don't think it will reach 900,00$.

Maybe this was the last breath of this rally...

BTW:

Bitstamp rallied 15,00$!

What a rally! To da moon!

[macsga]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

no way it wont even get past 760 ( Stamps )

/Rpietila mode on

Well. I'm willing to bet against you on this. I can bet 98000 dogecoins that it will pass it!
Then I can light up a cigar rolled in the laps of a 16 old virgin from Cuba
KTHXBYE!

/Rpietila mode off.

[nanobrain]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

no way it wont even get past 760 ( Stamps )

Sorry Adam, what are you saying?  BTC wont go higher than 760 on Stamp???....shurerly shome mishtake

[Ducky1]

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I just tried that. With data from 1st of November 2011 to 15th of December 2013 (Mt Gox) the fit factor for a straight line in log space is R^2=0,9066 while for an exponential rise in log space R^2=0.9422. So, you are maybe on to something.

[adamstgBit]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

no way it wont even get past 760 ( Stamps )

Sorry Adam, what are you saying?  BTC wont go higher than 760 on Stamp???....shurerly shome mishtake

we'll see...

the math geek would have you blieve bitcoin is going to the moon, meanwhile they buy dogecoins.....

[Miz4r]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

$900? I think you're even more bullish than those of us shouting choochoo and to da moon in here. But if it does go to $900, I think you can kiss your capitulation goodbye.

[justusranvier]

[sarcasm]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/sarcasm]

There are two possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Either it fails completely, or else this happens. There is no stable equilibrium between those two extremes.

[Peter R]

[sarcasm]This means that we will eventually approach a singularity where the bitcoin price becomes infinite.  The only way for this to happen is for the USD to go to zero as well.[/sarcasm]

There are two possible outcomes for Bitcoin.

Either it fails completely, or else this happens. There is no stable equilibrium between those two extremes.

Sorry, I used the wrong tags.  Upon reflection, I should have used [uberbull]...[/uberbull].  I agree that this is possible, BTW. 

[nanobrain]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

no way it wont even get past 760 ( Stamps )

Sorry Adam, what are you saying?  BTC wont go higher than 760 on Stamp???....shurerly shome mishtake

we'll see...

the math geek would have you blieve bitcoin is going to the moon, meanwhile they buy dogecoins.....

Oh God....I thought we had moved onto cat coins long ago

Don't take any notice of what TERA says...he's a contrarian, you should know this from the trollbox.  It's the end of the weekend of a long holiday with flaccid volume flopping the price around.  What happens on Jan 2nd following is what to base your predictions on.

And lets face it 'capitulation' at $500....its like being tortured with a feather.

[Ducky1]

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

I don't think Bitcoin's long term trendline is going to be straight on a log graph - I think it's going to trace an S curve graphed in log space.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igDailyzczsg2011-11-01zeg2013-12-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Throw away the data from before November '11, while the exchanges were trying to figure out how to operate, and what do you see?

I just tried that. With data from 1st of November 2011 to 15th of December 2013 (Mt Gox) the fit factor for a straight line in log space is R^2=0,9066 while for an exponential rise in log space R^2=0.9422. So, you are maybe on to something.

Plot:

[kurious]

Wow look at this sudden massive flow of delusional bulls that partied too much over the holidays or something. All the sudden due to a couple buys on gox on a low volume day and some squiggly lines we are ARE BACK IN THE BULL MARKET GOING TO DA MOON NEXT STOP 10000 LOLZ.

Really? Do you not remember this exact same fake breakout in May? Like I said this weak rally is going to probably $900 maybe a bit higher before reversing into final capitulation to $500.

U mad?

He is pretty mad, yep.

Jury is out on that one IMHO - I am feeling we are not in bull market yet.   Don't get me wrong, I am 80/20 BTC / fiat right now, so I want a higher price.

But I am not full BTC as I still think China volumes / prices are fake and the market is neither predictable (of course), nor settled.

[oda.krell]

You composition actually makes the rate at which BTC increases dependent on the rate at which USD decreases. Was that what you had in mind?

The BTC exchange rate depends on two related but independent factors: it's inherent utility growth due to increased adoption, and the simultaneous degradation in the USD which it is referenced to.

I agree with Peter R.'s "rationalization" of a super exponential function above (I agree, even though I don't really *believe* in it), but I don't agree with what you're saying. if btc adoption growing exponentially towards infinity (f) and usd degradation exponentially decreasing towards 0 (g) are independent of each other, as you stipulate, what you're looking for, price p as f over g, is
f(x)=e^x
g(x)=1/h^x
p(x)=(e^x)/(1/(h^x))=(e^x)*(h^x)=eh^x
It's late and I'm midly drunk , so by all means tell me where you think i went wrong.