Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Peter R]

I am calling $2200 by April 1

$4500 by April 1st.

Huge run up to $10,000 by mid May and then a slight "correction" or "crash" to $6000 or so by late May or early June followed by continued growth back to $10,000 by July then another run at some point in August or Sept up to $50,000 to even $100,000.

I am a bull but I think this scenario is quite plausible based on this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg4227238#msg4227238

The only way I could see this being potentially possible, is if (a) bitcoin ATMs get deployed across numerous major cities all over the world including the US, and (b) bitcoin ETFs becomes available that allow the average eTrade+European-equivalent investor to take a position in bitcoin as easily as GLD.  (Personally, I think 2014 is too early for a rally of this magnitude.)

To sustain a monster rally, the people need easy ways to buy.  

[OldGeek]

To sustain a monster rally, the people need easy ways to buy.  

Which brings up a question.  How are the ATM's funded?  Off exchange or what?

[gentlemand]

Yes. It's big, big leap from hearing about Bitcoin to investing in it for most people. At this stage the majority would give up in a fog of confusion.

I think 2014 will still be pretty breathtaking but it'll only be laying the foundations for something headier in the following years.

[Nightowlace]

Yes. It's big, big leap from hearing about Bitcoin to investing in it for most people. At this stage the majority would give up in a fog of confusion.

I think 2014 will still be pretty breathtaking but it'll only be laying the foundations for something headier in the following years.

How much does the average person know about their 401k investments and the blended funds they participate in? Would they even know that Bitcoin was in their portfolio?

[Nightowlace]

I am calling $2200 by April 1

You bears crack me up!

Bear? Excuse me?

[ChartBuddy]

[ShroomsKit]

I am calling $2200 by April 1

You bears crack me up!

Bear? Excuse me?

I think it was a joke. It made me laugh either way.

[Peter R]

To sustain a monster rally, the people need easy ways to buy.  

Which brings up a question.  How are the ATM's funded?  Off exchange or what?

I spoke with Mitchell Demeter, one of the guys involved with bringing the RoboCoin ATM to Vancouver.  He told me that their ATM buys and sells in real-time from BitStamp.  Basically, you pump in $100 in cash, the machine deducts 3% (as its fee), and then it initiates a market buy order on BitStamp on your behalf.  Once the coins have been procured, it transfers them to the address that you scanned.    

So, ATMs like this will directly influence (in real time) the price on the major bitcoin markets.  Provided the ATM owners' exchange accounts remain well funded with fiat, then they should be able to supply whatever amount of coins are demanded.  But note that at least once already the ATM in Vancouver has had to limit (or disable) orders due to so much demand that their BitStamp account ran out of fiat.  

In its first month, the bitcoin ATM in Vancouver did slightly over $1,000,000 of transactions (albeit during the November growth spurt).  I must assume that most of that demand was local to Vancouver.  Now imagine 1,000 similar ATMs operating all over the world: it is quite easy to see how billions of dollars could flood into bitcoin once the "easy buying" infrastructure is in place.  

[gentlemand]

Yes. It's big, big leap from hearing about Bitcoin to investing in it for most people. At this stage the majority would give up in a fog of confusion.

I think 2014 will still be pretty breathtaking but it'll only be laying the foundations for something headier in the following years.

How much does the average person know about their 401k investments and the blended funds they participate in? Would they even know that Bitcoin was in their portfolio?

True, true.

Right now though you have to do every single bit of it off your own back.

I'm assuming this year is when that's going to start changing. Then proper mind blowage will commence.

[shmadz]

what does organofcoti say about this? i highly doubt its 100% true

Voodah, it's just "luck". They're legit and never cheated.

I sincerely hope both of you guys are right..!

I don't really enjoy this at all, and know, calling this out can generate a certain level of hatred by some.

Still, I think we need more transparency.

Trust me it's only luck I have few Ghs on BTC guild and my income today is 30% more than it is normal on this diff.

+1
Same here.

Ah this brings back memories when we had same problem with deepbit. Anyone knows why deepbit stayed on getwork and is not upgrading it just stayed as it was years ago and still mining?

If you're mining on GPU then I think it's your only choice. I still have a 6950 mining on them

I have one 5970 with bad ram or smthing... that wont crunch scrypt but mining BTC with no problems on deepbit.

I have some 7970's with the same problem I think, can't mine litecoins for shit, but they did just fine on bitcoin for almost 2 years. thanks for the heads up, I'm gonna try deepbit again, or maybe just sha-256 altcoins?

-also-

[conspiracy theory] Do you think that AMD tweaked the ram speed and timings on the new R9 series specifically to better mine scrypt? With the local availability at 0, mining seems to have become the main selling point of this series of graphics card in my area. Surely AMD has analyzed their sales data and realized that a significant portion of their high-end cards were going to mining farms, (many units sold to a single buyer)

they must be aware of the demand and market for mining.[/conspiracy theory]

not to mention that BFL is trying to piggyback off that reputation buy stealing the image of an AMD card and passing it off as an ASIC miner. (600 GH/s sometime "next year" - ok, fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice... *insert stupid president meme here*

*edited to put thoughts in proper sequence, it will take time to recover from new year's celebration it seems

[OldGeek]

In its first month, the bitcoin ATM in Vancouver did slightly over $1,000,000 of transactions (albeit during the November growth spurt).  I must assume that most of that demand was local to Vancouver.  Now imagine a 1,000 similar ATMs operating all over the world: it is quite easy to see how billions of dollars could flood into bitcoin once the "easy buying" infrastructure is in place.  

Please, don't misunderstand my posts as trying to be antagonistic, not that you were.  I'm merely trying to see how the long-term puzzle is shaped.  Ok?

So, for now Bitstamp will fund the ATM's.  Once the XBT is withdrawn from stamp, presumably so the ATM customer can purchase goods and services in the real world, where do the replacement coins come from?  If the consumer holds off on her purchase for, say two weeks, then those coins are out of circulation and unavailable for trading.  If she makes her purchase fairly immediately, then we presume that the merchant will convert them back to fiat as quickly as is possible.  Net result = ~0

The total number of XBT is fixed.  The well containing that total is only so deep.  The bottom layers are very likely walled off by the 'Founding Fathers'. 

The mid layers are the murky waters.  Whether, or when, they will be converted to fiat is uncertain.  Those who sold some near the ATH don't have much incentive to convert their remainder.

The top layer of the well has the XBT on the exchanges.  Either trading now or available within moments.  I don't have a clue as to the total available on all of the exchanges combined, but it doesn't seem that there are enough to support a supposed mass entrance of wealthy traders eager to buy up the market.   

[Peter R]

In its first month, the bitcoin ATM in Vancouver did slightly over $1,000,000 of transactions (albeit during the November growth spurt).  I must assume that most of that demand was local to Vancouver.  Now imagine a 1,000 similar ATMs operating all over the world: it is quite easy to see how billions of dollars could flood into bitcoin once the "easy buying" infrastructure is in place.  

Please, don't misunderstand my posts as trying to be antagonistic, not that you were.  I'm merely trying to see how the long-term puzzle is shaped.  Ok?
  

That's funny you say that.  I didn't think you were being antagonist in the least.  But in retrospect, I can see how my post may have come off that way. 

This forum posting is interesting.  Take the discussion we just had: I was using your quote to answer your question, but also to give information to the many readers of this thread that aren't actively posting (evidence suggests the lurker to poster ration is ~40 to 1).  It's quite weird actually.  I was 25% addressing your question, but 75% throwing in my vision of how things unfold for anyone who cares to listen!

[TERA]

Oh my good the bulls have drank mana potion and grown giant flaming horns. $100,000 in August folks...

[OldGeek]

Oh my good the bulls have drank mana potion and grown giant flaming horns. $100,000 in August folks...

Single digits by Friday.

[ChartBuddy]

[OldGeek]

That's funny you say that.  I didn't think you were being antagonist in the least. 

Thanks for that.

This forum posting is interesting.  Take the discussion we just had: I was using your quote to answer your question, but also to give information to the many readers of this thread that aren't actively posting (evidence suggests the lurker to poster ration is ~40 to 1).  It's quite weird actually.  I was 25% addressing your question, but 75% throwing in my vision of how things unfold for anyone who cares to listen!

Ya, I was one of the 40 for quite a while.  I admit to being intimidated by some of the posters, but it seems to have been worthwhile.

So, my question remains.  Where will all the coins come from to support a huge increase in the price?

Or, will it be the case of many dollars chasing smaller volumes of coins all the way to the moon?

Can you imagine the market price going to 10k USD on 1k per day of volume?

We could ask (beg?) some of the large holders to tell us at what level they would be willing to part with, say 50k, coins.

[OldGeek]

We could ask (beg?) some of the large holders to tell us at what level they would be willing to part with, say 50k, coins.

Quoting myself here to point out how silly that last sentence is.

For you 40 who are lurking:  there's little doubt that massive amounts of fiat could hit the exchanges within the next 12 months.  Whether and when is up for debate.

If you perceive that my thoughts are flapping around like a pennant on a very tall flagstaff ... you would be correct.

[seleme]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

[TERA]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

Lets revisit this once there is a 50k dump.

[lebing]

With each new day I see less and less chance for price to significantly drop. Only some very negative news could do it, the buying pressure just absorbs any dump, and bid walls keep building.

Lets revisit this once there is a 50k dump.