Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

[alexeft]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

Then nobody will dump 50k coins. Just the slippage will stop them.

[Davyd05]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

50,000BTC * 127BTC/usd = 6,350,000usd

50,000BTC * 745BTC/usd = 37,250,000usd

think these totals are important,

17% of 50,000 roughly 8500 coins now a days makes 6,350,000 ( rounded numbers) cause I am lazyyyyy. So perhaps we just need to give more relevance to the price in relation to volume

edit: we saw 3400-4500 coins sold on gox yesterday perhaps they just wanted 6 milli

[ChartBuddy]

[wachtwoord]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Compare the right thing please. You seem to be using Gox so the current price is $822, that's 822/127=6.5 times the price, so you should look at the slippage of 50k/6.5 = ~7.7k BTC. According to Clarkmoody that results in 7.75% slippage, so lower than in May.

[ElectricMucus]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

Then nobody will dump 50k coins. Just the slippage will stop them.

Then they just put in an askwall.

[ElectricMucus]

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Adam look, you can now close the thread.

[Peter R]

A friendly reminder about how reality looks like:
http://buttcoin.org/easy-like-sunday-morning

What a sad story. My Bitstamp withdrawals have been working just fine. Where is this guy selling the half price bitcoins? I would like to meet go meet him.

That site is pretty funny, but I'm wondering if those stories on buttcoin.org are completely made up.  Myself and others have done several large withdrawals successfully from cavirtex--never had a problem.  In fact, the only problem I've ever had was getting money in to the exchange.  In Vancouver we have an active 'local bitcoins' community too; if you'd take a 10-15% discount to cavirtex, you could sell $100,000 tomorrow for cash.  

[ElectricMucus]

Myself and others have done several large withdrawals successfully from cavirtex--never had a problem.  In fact, the only problem I've ever had was getting money in to the exchange.  In Vancouver we have an active 'local bitcoins' community too; if you'd take a 10-15% discount to cavirtex, you could sell $100,000 tomorrow for cash.  

I'm wondering if those stories are in fact completely made up.

[macsga]

Hey macsga,

I go to Greece every summer. Usually two weeks in Galaxidi and then maybe down to the islands. Love hiking though. If you can recommend some good places I would appreciate it.

Cheers

Taygetus Mt would be a nice place to hike. We have a hiking team here, they'll be glad to meet you! To be honest I don't hike much the last couple of years. I'm more into archery lately; but I wouldn't mind talking and walking with a friend that knows what bitcoin is!!!

I assume you live there? Where are you based?

That would be here:


FWIW: I have a friend that has villas for rent. He's accepting Bitcoins! He's located here:


If you ever want to visit Peloponnese, Greece, just pm me. I will arrange everything. I also am an archaeology freak. That means if you need to visit ancient cites like Olympia you will have your very own boring company telling you what's this and what's that.
Olympia:

There are many great events coming within the next couple of weeks. Fortune's story about Fortress fund is one of them. I bet you have considered yourselves that only the strongest will survive the fiat exchange mania this year, right...? RIGHT??  

I tried to get a thread started listing all the positive news/fundamentals happening in 2014
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=385359.0

Perhaps you could contribute MAcsga?

NB...its interesting that rather than just list positive events most users want to talk about the negatives of fiat or present personal opinion - I'd suggest the internet has made people pretty feeble minded in respect of disciplined thinking.

Gladly. I'm gonna head right there ASAP.

[Peter R]

I'm wondering if those stories are in fact completely made up.

How about the forum mods banning trolls?

[TERA]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Compare the right thing please. You seem to be using Gox so the current price is $822, that's 822/127=6.5 times the price, so you should look at the slippage of 50k/6.5 = ~7.7k BTC. According to Clarkmoody that results in 7.75% slippage, so lower than in May.

Why are you counting in fiat? The supply of bitcoins stays the same regardless of fiat price. By your logic, when btc was trading at $0.1 then a comparible dump would be 50 million bitcoins, and that many dont even exist. Then also by your logic, once btc is trading at $100,000, we can say "look 50 bitcoins were dumped. the price is supported". lol

[ChartBuddy]

[macsga]

I'm wondering if those stories are in fact completely made up.

How about the forum mods banning trolls?

I think that I'd be one of the first here to be banned.... 

* macsga hides

[wachtwoord]

50K was dumped in May. At the time, the order books were so deep that the dump only brought the price from $127 to $118 - only 9% slippage, and then the month long downtrend began. Now look at our current order books - even if you combine mtgox and bitstamp - the same dump would reduce the price to $450, a 45% drop... Think about that for a moment. Bid support my ass.

You guys have forgotten how even the title of this very thread was created.

Compare the right thing please. You seem to be using Gox so the current price is $822, that's 822/127=6.5 times the price, so you should look at the slippage of 50k/6.5 = ~7.7k BTC. According to Clarkmoody that results in 7.75% slippage, so lower than in May.

Why are you counting in fiat? The supply of bitcoins stays the same regardless of fiat price. By your logic, when btc was trading at $0.1 then a comparible dump would be 50 million bitcoins, and that many dont even exist. Then also by your logic, once btc is trading at $100,000, we can say "look 50 bitcoins were dumped. the price is supported". lol

Because holdings and corresponding drops are self-adaptive to economic value.

[tHash]

I can't believe the lack of intelligence in this thread . . .

All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous.   Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume.   Same goes for bid depth.   It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again.   Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin.   Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense.   The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them?  Bid sums are near or at ATHs.   This is not bearish.   As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off.   Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now.   This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like.   Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth.   People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!  

There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher.    If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous.   In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day.   If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage.   While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value.   It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation.   As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges.   It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges.   There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.

Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks.   Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that.    They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin.   The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them.   Now the are crying about volume and bid depths.   Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coin ask depths to the crash in the spring.   Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects.   There is not a lot of comparison.  

Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear.   Simple math goes a long way.   The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices.  They can't take into account the news, in either direction.   When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary.  That goes for me too, don't take my word for anything, think about it.   If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .


Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated.  I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again.   You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".

[windjc]

I can't believe the lack of intelligence in this thread . . .

All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous.   Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume.   Same goes for bid depth.   It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again.   Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin.   Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense.   The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them?  Bid sums are near or at ATHs.   This is not bearish.   As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off.   Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now.   This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like.   Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth.   People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!  

There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher.    If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous.   In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day.   If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage.   While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value.   It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation.   As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges.   It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges.   There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.

Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks.   Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that.    They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin.   The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them.   Now the are crying about volume and bid depths.   Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coins ask depths to the crash in the spring.   Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects.   There is not a lot of comparison.  

Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear.   Simple math goes a long way.   The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices.  They can't take into account the news, in either direction.   When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary.  That goes for me to, don't take my word for anything, think about it.   If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .


Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated.  I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again.   You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".

Thank you for saving me the time and posting so eloquently. The market may go up or down, but DAMN if there aren't several people dominating this thread who want it to go down so badly. This thread has become shit because of this mainly.

Just be fucking grateful that bitcoin is at $750 Jan. 2014. That's an amazing story you are a part of.

[lebing]

I can't believe the lack of intelligence in this thread . . .

All this low bid depth and low volume is ridiculous.   Dollar volume is massively more important than BTC volume.   Same goes for bid depth.   It would be stupid to think that just because someone dumped 50k coins (worth maybe a bit more than $5M) earlier in the year, that it would happen again.   Anyone with that many coins has a vested interest in the health of bitcoin.   Someone would have to want to damage bitcoin, it just dos not make sense.   The same 50k coins would be worth massively more now, why would someone just dump them?  Bid sums are near or at ATHs.   This is not bearish.   As BTC gains value, volume will drop WAY off.   Compare dollar volume now to dollar volume in the July to October time frame, we have more dollar volume now.   This gives more of an idea of what a slowly increasing market looks like.   Healthy growth, not the stupid parabolic growth.   People scream about low volume, but we don't want the volume of November, it leads to a bubble!  

There does not need to be 10 times the dollar volume to support a price that is 10 times higher.    If BTC were $10k, expecting there to be tens of thousands in BTC volume every day would be ridiculous.   In fact, if there needed to be 10 times the volume to support 10 times the price, eventually we would have to be trading the entire amount of mined bitcoins every day.   If someone were to dump 50k BTC, that would be like someone dumping $38B worth of gold all at once, no market could absorb that without massive slippage.   While it is much easier to see 0.4% of bitcoins dumped all at once than gold, it still becomes less likely as bitcoin gains value.   It would make no sense to dump them all at once, on an exchange, unless for manipulation, and even then, the coins would have to be re bought for less if it was manipulation.   As bitcoin makes gains in usage, there will be less and less volume on the exchanges.   It is possible that eventually there would be almost no volume on the exchanges.   There is no trading when everyone agrees on the price, bitcoins are only bought or sold as they are actually needed.

Those being ridiculously bearish (there are a very few intelligent bear arguments) are just butthurt over the markets reaction over the last few weeks.   Many are only interested in making a quick fiat profit in the volatility that surrounds big drops, so they crave that.    They have no interest in the long term health of bitcoin.   The bears have stopped using their lines on charts to predict the doom of bitcoin because we have broken most of them.   Now the are crying about volume and bid depths.   Wake up people, compare the USD bid depths, and coins ask depths to the crash in the spring.   Compare news, and sentiment, and proliferation, and new projects.   There is not a lot of comparison.  

Make up your own minds, but be very skeptical of those trying to create fear.   Simple math goes a long way.   The lines many have drawn on charts failed to accurately predict recent prices.  They can't take into account the news, in either direction.   When people try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about, be very wary.  That goes for me to, don't take my word for anything, think about it.   If the things someone says begins to play at your emotions, there is a good chance you are being manipulated . . .


Sorry for the long post, but I got home late and spent a few minutes catching up on the thread, and got super frustrated.  I actually have some fiat sitting around because I believe there could still be a drop as the China issue is still not closed, and I am sure there will be a further attempt to cause panic selling if something goes bad there again.   You couldn't make me sell right now for anything though, not even into a "final capitulation".

Agree with everything (and thanks for writing what I was far toolazy to write), minus China. I think the second bad news from China was about all the market could take. I dont think anyone really believes the volume on the fringe exchanges are real and very much doubt that anymore bad news from China will cause another panic. More likely to be a shrug.

[macsga]

Very well put tHash.

[T.Stuart]

I predict one thing with absolute certainty for this weekend...

There will be an exponential increase in the word "DUMP" on this forum!