I think TA should be used with real caution now, since the fundamentals have improved and we have a lot of bigger players entering. Just some advice for the people who focus mainly on TA.
I don't know, really. What else do you have, other than TA?
I mean, fundamentals are subject to interpretation as well. There is no "objective" way to look at news/fundamentals... the market reaction to the Silk Road bust is a perfect example for that.
My point is, TA is just as useful or not useful as it always is.
Perhaps what you have in mind is better phrased as: "don't cling to *outdated* assumptions from TA".
I remember one of the mantras being repeated after the April peak/crash was that "price has to deflate back all the way" (which was either ~15 USD = price at beginning of the rally or ~30 USD = previous ATH). In reality, final capitulation was at ~60 USD, off by a factor of 2.
* * *
The current situation still fits into my own expectations... we went up pretty nicely over the last weeks, and with some extra force in the last few days, and I still consider it a real possibility that we're seeing an early end to the post-December peak bear market. On the other hand, we have what could be a (spread out) double top at 1070/1090, and there's also a real chance we're still going to go down much further.
I'm not tempted to re-adjust my position quite yet. If we go through 890-900 (mtgox) *with force*, and close below it, I'm starting to get worried. Well, not really, but I would consider the "continued bear market" scenario more likely again.