Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019

With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply:
a) turn off the machines, or
b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level.

Guess which one is more likely to happen.

Bitmain just announced that it has finally developed a better ASIC chip. It will be 42J/TH. Bitfury also announce that they have a new ASIC chip which gets 55mW/GH. https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-ceo-announces-new-7nm-bitcoin-mining-chip. I put in some figures, and it appears at the current difficulty and 5 cents/kwH price in China, that brings the electricity cost down to less than $1,500 USD to produce 1 BTC. If the difficulty doubles, it will still be less then $3000 USD to produce a BTC. And I suspect some of the larger mining farms in China are getting a better deal than 5 cents/kwH. Therefore, the break-even floor is going to be lowered.
However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.  

Well it depends on the price tag on this new nextgen miner and taking into account it's productivity it won't be really given away for free   

[bones261]

6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019

With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply:
a) turn off the machines, or
b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level.

Guess which one is more likely to happen.

Bitmain just announced that it has finally developed a better Asic chip. It will be 42J/TH. Bitfury also announce that they have a new Asic chip which gets 55mW/GH. https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-ceo-announces-new-7nm-bitcoin-mining-chip/ I put in some figures, and it appears at the current difficulty and 5 cents/kwH price in China, that brings the electricity cost down to less than $1,500 USD to produce 1 BTC. If the difficulty doubles, it will still be less then $3000 USD to produce a BTC. And I suspect some of the larger mining farms in China are getting a better deal than 5 cents/kwH. Therefore, the break-even floor is going to be lowered.
However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.  

Are you taking into account the cost of the new devices and operational costs in your ROI calculation or only the electricity cost (which I also presume it may be way lower than 5 cents/khw for some)?

No, I didn't factor that in. Mainly because Bitmain and Bitfury are most likely to deploy many of their new ASICs on their own farms, and I believe their cost to produce is way less than the price they give to the public. Also, the larger farms that are independent(?) of Bitmain will probably get a deep discount due to volume. I suspect that most large mining farms in China will be able to recoup their equipment cost in a few months, if that long.

[BTCHadzija]

my trading these past 2 weeks

[crypmike]

Your daily reminder that the bear market is DEAD, and the next few weeks will be the best $BTC buying opportunity you'll see for years.





https://twitter.com/BeastlyBTC/status/1043609044512980992

idk why you are so excited about this guys... this image has no sense. Still possible scenario:
The market is unpredictable

[El duderino_]

SO again for all the latecomers-nocoiners-pessants-shitcoiners etc that actualy still wants in BTC be glad the train was left the rockets where flying BUT the bus made a short stop be on it or be left in the dust again 

[El duderino_]

^^
in here bullish=excited                  (TA always guessing events.... doesn't mean much SO when there nice and bullish its al good)

[goldkingcoiner]

While I'm pouring all my savings into BTC, all my friends have been going on and on about weed stocks. Tilray, Canopy, etc.  
Not sure why I'm so skeptical. Maybe I just don't understand traditional stocks or weed futures.  
Federal prohibition is nearing its end. 

If you were really cruel you would introduce them to the cannabis based shitcoins and just watch as they panic as the price falls into nothing. And of course they would fomo back during every single pump. I don't know. Seems like a good life lesson for those who don't learn by any other means

[Wekkel]

I’d rather see a panic dump towards $5,200 first so that it is absolutely clear that we’ve hit bottom. But life is not always fair. Far from that.

[gembitz]

SIACOIN lottery season! weeee

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_sc

[infofront]

I guess I finally capitulated. I selected 6500-7000 in the poll. I've always chosen bullish before this and been wrong so so so many times. Does that mean the price is finally going to rise?

If it makes you feel any better, I selected "$7,000-$7,500".

This has been an awful Bitcorn season.

Not sure what the harvest is gonna be like in December.

>$8,500

Guess I'm hopeless.

I guess we are still waiting on you to capitulate then, it will rise only after the very last hold out falls.

Hodlers don't capitulate. I think it's possible that if there are enough hodlers, we may not see a textbook capitulation event. Or we've already witnessed it.

I just meant capitulate on the poll. Or are you saying that hodlers don't even do that? If so than I guess I'm not part of the hodlgang any more

Oh, sorry. I think it's acceptable for hodlers to capitulate on the poll.

[becoin]

I’d rather see a panic dump towards $5,200 first so that it is absolutely clear that we’ve hit bottom. But life is not always fair. Far from that.

You're already panicking that there won't be such a dump.

[Wekkel]

I’d rather see a panic dump towards $5,200 first so that it is absolutely clear that we’ve hit bottom. But life is not always fair. Far from that.

You're already panicking that there won't be such a dump.

A less than poor trader knows to be flexible.

[Deeyoh]

10,000 LTC buy in Binance.  That's the biggest I've seen on binance.  Looks like a push up for the normal Sunday night/ Monday morning dump.

[jbreher]

However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.  

I'm fairly optimistic we are unlikely to drop below 5000 as well. However, I don't think the market reaction to the recent bug is any indicator. After all, both problem and solution became common knowledge in the same instant.

[jbreher]

Bitmain and Bitfury are most likely to deploy many of their new ASICs on their own farms, and I believe their cost to produce is way less than the price they give to the public. I suspect that most large mining farms in China will be able to recoup their equipment cost in a few months, if that long.

Hmmm. And here I thought that the WO consensus was that Bitmain was circling the drain, and were destined to kill BCH in the process. Guess that must have been a premature call.

[bones261]

I guess you didn't get the memo. The person who discovered and responsibly disclosed this devastating bug was a bcasher.

Do you have a reputable source for that statement? (eg excluding Peter R)

If you are referencing the BU dev who supposedly found it, his cryptographic proof fell apart.  It is time stamped more than 8 hours after the bug was disclosed.  

Here is an excerpt from a recent post by Greg Maxwell. It appears that this is indeed true.

..snip
Through all the history of Bitcoin, altcoin forks copying the code, other reimplementations and many other consensus bugs, some serious and some largely benign,  this is the first time someone working on another serious implementation that someone actually uses has actually found one.  I might be forgetting something, but I'm certainly not forgetting many. Kudos to awemany. In all other cases they either had the same bugs without knowing it, or accidentally fixed it creating fork risk creating vulnerability without knowing it. It also isn't like there being multiple implementations is new-- for the purpose of this point every one of the 1001 altcoins created by copying the Bitcoin code count as a separate implementation too, or at least the ones which are actively maintained do.
..snip

[Icygreen]

6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019

With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply:
a) turn off the machines, or
b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level.

Guess which one is more likely to happen.

Bitmain just announced that it has finally developed a better ASIC chip. It will be 42J/TH. Bitfury also announce that they have a new ASIC chip which gets 55mW/GH. https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-ceo-announces-new-7nm-bitcoin-mining-chip. I put in some figures, and it appears at the current difficulty and 5 cents/kwH price in China, that brings the electricity cost down to less than $1,500 USD to produce 1 BTC. If the difficulty doubles, it will still be less then $3000 USD to produce a BTC. And I suspect some of the larger mining farms in China are getting a better deal than 5 cents/kwH. Therefore, the break-even floor is going to be lowered.
However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.  

Kinda concerning really.  Is that last bug and we're all fixed now? Whew!    Inflationary bug? First I've heard inflation was actually possible for btc.
What is the likelihood it was planted there intentionally?   Maybe someone just discovered a hidden pot of bear juice.  Sorry, gotta ask cause that's a pretty big banana.

[Torque]

6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019

With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply:
a) turn off the machines, or
b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level.

Guess which one is more likely to happen.

And they can't even do that, because they renew their electrical contracts 6-12 months in advance.

[Torque]

Bitmain and Bitfury are most likely to deploy many of their new ASICs on their own farms, and I believe their cost to produce is way less than the price they give to the public. I suspect that most large mining farms in China will be able to recoup their equipment cost in a few months, if that long.

Hmmm. And here I thought that the WO consensus was that Bitmain was circling the drain, and were destined to kill BCH in the process. Guess that must have been a premature call.

BCH is a dead zombie coin, only you haven't realized it yet. 

[becoin]

Bitmain and Bitfury are most likely to deploy many of their new ASICs on their own farms, and I believe their cost to produce is way less than the price they give to the public. I suspect that most large mining farms in China will be able to recoup their equipment cost in a few months, if that long.

Hmmm. And here I thought that the WO consensus was that Bitmain was circling the drain, and were destined to kill BCH in the process. Guess that must have been a premature call.

Bitmain won't kill BCH. BCH will kill Bitmain.