Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

This is my best match against a 2014 scenario.



https://www.tradingview.com/i/YSYQZwmF/

I would accept that scenario right away (which holder wouldn't?).

Even though the scenario could happen, as a fellow HODLer, I don't accept it... at least not readily.

The scenario calls for an additional 50% down, based on an overlay of 2014/15 which were different circumstances than we find today.  Yes, it could happen, but it is far from a given, and it is even reasonable that the bottom is already "in". 

Unfortunately there is a high probability that futures markets (CME/CBOE/etc) have indeed sorta "tamed" Bitcoin and we won't see neither those lows nor those skyrocketing highs, at least not in that relatively short timeframe. But... I only know that I know nothing and anything is possible.

Your last sentence seem to be the most important, and even though the theories like to suggest that bitcoin has been "tamed" and volatility has gone down forever, how are they really going to tame it, when we still have way less than 1% of world adoption and a whole lot of stupid ass crazy with the alts too?

Financialization of bitcoin has both its ups and downs, but even a lot of those folks are still acquiring bitcoin and they want to "get rich" too, especially if they are able to take advantage of the least resistance when it happens, and when such "least resistance" happens to be UP, they will also join in on the buying frenzie... which seems to be a matter of "when" rather than "if".

I am "poor" already... If it is on the cards that I will be "sufficiently rich" someday just because of crypto... so be it.

Whoaza!!!!  you have been registered here since early 2013, weren't you able to accumulate some BTC over the years?   At least enough to have decent profits, even though you might not be "rich" yet, the decent profits should have removed you from "poor" status, relatively speaking, no?

In the meantime I will be working on other potentially profitable stuff to raise my probabilities of reaching that status one way or another.

It does not hurt to continue to accumulate BTC and even to have some kind of cashflow coming in and to use a decent amount of that cashflow to buy BTC.  Hopefuily you don't delve into gambling and become desperate about becoming rich, which does not usually work as well as a sound investment strategy, such as accumulating BTC....

The next months/years are critical guys.

Agreed.

[1714815673]

1714815673

[1714815673]

1714815673

[Resumean]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://i.imgflip.com/2j1zt1.jpg

I couldn't help but notice the distinct lack of a ring on a particular finger.

As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won't need much, just a tiny taste.

Then, put a ring on that finger.

Yeah come on mic, time to get down on one knee
Saying that, I’ve been with my girl 10 years now & she has no ring on her finger too

BOB my girl would consider you to be a good friend, but i never see the real meaning of getting married... to buy a nice ring wouldn't be a problem, but she's not a real jewelry carrier

and so first its LFC that has to drop the knee .... i'm only with my GF for 5,5 years  (livin together from day 1 also little unusual)

How did that happen man?

[El duderino_]

https://i.imgflip.com/2j1zt1.jpg

I couldn't help but notice the distinct lack of a ring on a particular finger.

As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won't need much, just a tiny taste.

Then, put a ring on that finger.

Yeah come on mic, time to get down on one knee
Saying that, I’ve been with my girl 10 years now & she has no ring on her finger too

BOB my girl would consider you to be a good friend, but i never see the real meaning of getting married... to buy a nice ring wouldn't be a problem, but she's not a real jewelry carrier

and so first its LFC that has to drop the knee .... i'm only with my GF for 5,5 years  (livin together from day 1 also little unusual)

1st the engagement ring
then the wedding ring
followed by the suffer ring....

exactly but the SUFFER ring is the one you get in return .....

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't done the full Math on this, but isn't that a back and forth kind of game (due to the presence of traders and speculators)?

Correlation vs Causation.  This is the Captain speaking.  If there is a statistician on board, please press the call attendant button to identify yourself to the cabin crew.  

From that perspective you can spin the argument up from both sides. The price is a result of the difficulty, as it dictates the supply. The cause that you speak of can be arbitrarily picked here. (Infinite difficulty = no coins = no price, hence the presence of a difficulty creates a price)

Except this isn’t really accurate. Difficulty adjusts both up and down. With a low enough difficulty I can run the entire Bitcoin network on my 2009 laptop.  Any decrease in supply due to a rapid decrease in hashrate is inconsequential on a multi year time line.

I should've clarified that I meant the initial difficulty for the genesis block. A difficulty so high that no coins can be mined results in no coins and thus no price, and a difficulty so low that arbitrarily many coins can be mined by anyone would result in a price of zero. Hence, the difficulty came first, and the price came after. Even without these edge cases, you need to mine coins first before any price can be set though. Alas, you can spin this up either way by including or excluding exotic scenarios.

Your extreme scenarios are so far out there as to be unrealistic because the algorithm allows for blocks to be mined every 10 minutes and the difficulty is adjusted every 2 weeks in order to attempt to approximate the 10 minutes for every block time line.

Otherwise, I agree with you about the back and forth feeding rather than it being just a one way cause and effect.

Furthermore, price is fed by a whole hell of a lot more than mining, and both of you seem to understand enough that miners might be playing more of a long term game rather than a short term game, and they will hold through bad periods, but perhaps for only so long.  There is going to be a lot of variance, and in the longer run, the more efficient miners should be able to survive longer while the less efficient miners might find it more profitable to merely buy the coins rather than attempting to mine them.

[El duderino_]

https://i.imgflip.com/2j1zt1.jpg

I couldn't help but notice the distinct lack of a ring on a particular finger.

As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won't need much, just a tiny taste.

Then, put a ring on that finger.

Yeah come on mic, time to get down on one knee
Saying that, I’ve been with my girl 10 years now & she has no ring on her finger too

BOB my girl would consider you to be a good friend, but i never see the real meaning of getting married... to buy a nice ring wouldn't be a problem, but she's not a real jewelry carrier

and so first its LFC that has to drop the knee .... i'm only with my GF for 5,5 years  (livin together from day 1 also little unusual)

How did that happen man?

haha little like in movie's or something .... get the know each other a few weeks , went out few times and the night when i pulled the hamer (first kiss and the rest) she slept over and didn't left anymore .... i more and more asume that she had a vision or some that 1 day i would get involved with BTC or so...

#when BTC gets boring we turning ourselfs to relation things and shit 

give me a BOB

[xhomerx10]

the being formerly known as Last of the V8s

I am LA



you may refer to me as LA the Legendary

 Congratulations! No doubt a well-deserved rank.

[JayJuanGee]

Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would express neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.

I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not subjectively bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.

I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).

Does that mean that she was being contrary for the mere sake of being  contrary?  That is both annoying and troll-like behavior, no?    I understand that some people might find that interesting, but it seems that if you find it interesting, you are merely wanting to get entertained by the stirring of shit, rather than attempting to engage in meaningful battles of information and conclusions based on facts and logic rather than just picking out some random and inimportant contrarian point?

Anyhow, she seemed more like a troll and a shit stirrer rather than someone who might be well-intentioned and attempting to make meaningful contributions to dialectical discourse... as you seem to suggest her intentions to be good or at least the ends justify the means, perhaps?

Well, probably I was not expressing myself well enough - my English is still far from being good and definitely cannot be compared to yours.
When I told "with contrarian approach to everything", I meant more of an "independent and original approach to everything". Being independent thinker and picky/critical at the same time, very often means to become contrarian, and so stand against the crowd. Many people hate them. Contrarians add new viewpoint to discussion, sometimes just to play, but often to help, as group will be able to see things from multiple viewpoints and get better understanding of the complex topic. However this could be annoying to some people, especially those who prefer "being right" to "being more informed" - so called "soldier"-type of person.

And, truly saying, I do not see any connection between being contrarian and "stirring of shit". If you are discussing/investigating shit, then yes, it would be useful to stir it, so you feel the smell better and so get better feel of the subject heh.. But if you are discussing another (non-shit) topic, contrarian often provides arguments and new information (including facts and logical conclusions) to defend his/her views. This is how I see Tera and her input. She was nothing like a troll. More of like a highly intelligent and educated person (woman), who was often bashed for having different opinion.

Whatever. People are different, have different values and appreciate different things. I for one, prefer new ideas, information and discussion to food pictures and and memes. But I understand others have different preferences. That's normal

I agree with your overall points about the presentation of contrary views being a good thing, and I merited your post because I appreciate that you attempt to back up a lot of your points, even though I disagree with a lot of them, especially as they seem to pertain to Tera specifically, which I kind of considered her as a shit stirring contrarian rather than attempting to bring meaningful discussion (even if she said that was what she was attempting to do).  Just from your post, it seems to me that you are more genuinely presenting your points than she was.  Same with Hairyberry.  Even though I disagree with some of Hairyberry's recent bearish conclusions and even that he seems to want to put Tera on a pedestal, at least he does not seem to be shit stirring or trolling when he continues to get in his little jabs with ongoing bear predictions that he seems to genuinely believe.

If you really study into Tera, you will see that she will say that the sky is falling over and over and over as the price goes from $5k to $19k, and then when it finally comes down, she will assert that she was right, and everyone will say how smart she was.. which is just aggravating to state the obvious that some day the price will come down, especially when it is going up so quickly..  A vast majority of us realize that while the price is going up, so I don't know how productive it is to the conversation, exactly (beyond shit stirring and stating the obvious that the price will come down some day) to be presenting ongoing bear scenarios when the momentum is UP?

[JayJuanGee]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.

[xhomerx10]

https://i.imgflip.com/2j1zt1.jpg

I couldn't help but notice the distinct lack of a ring on a particular finger.

As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won't need much, just a tiny taste.

Then, put a ring on that finger.

Yeah come on mic, time to get down on one knee
Saying that, I’ve been with my girl 10 years now & she has no ring on her finger too

BOB my girl would consider you to be a good friend, but i never see the real meaning of getting married... to buy a nice ring wouldn't be a problem, but she's not a real jewelry carrier

and so first its LFC that has to drop the knee .... i'm only with my GF for 5,5 years  (livin together from day 1 also little unusual)

How did that happen man?

haha little like in movie's or something .... get the know each other a few weeks , went out few times and the night when i pulled the hamer (first kiss and the rest) she slept over and didn't left anymore .... i more and more asume that she had a vision or some that 1 day i would get involved with BTC or so...

#when BTC gets boring we turning ourselfs to relation things and shit 

~snip

 
 That's a beautiful story 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://i.imgflip.com/2j1zt1.jpg

I couldn't help but notice the distinct lack of a ring on a particular finger.

As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won't need much, just a tiny taste.

Then, put a ring on that finger.

Yeah come on mic, time to get down on one knee
Saying that, I’ve been with my girl 10 years now & she has no ring on her finger too

BOB my girl would consider you to be a good friend, but i never see the real meaning of getting married... to buy a nice ring wouldn't be a problem, but she's not a real jewelry carrier

and so first its LFC that has to drop the knee .... i'm only with my GF for 5,5 years  (livin together from day 1 also little unusual)

How did that happen man?

haha little like in movie's or something .... get the know each other a few weeks , went out few times and the night when i pulled the hamer (first kiss and the rest) she slept over and didn't left anymore .... i more and more asume that she had a vision or some that 1 day i would get involved with BTC or so...

#when BTC gets boring we turning ourselfs to relation things and shit  

give me a BOB

I’ve got a similar story, not 1 day but similar. I’ll tell you properly if we ever meet up.
But yeah, where’s a fucking pump man!

[kirreev070]

This week was hard and bad. Of the good events was only the purchase of a dog. And in the crypto nothing happened. SEC represented the second delay, the next deadline for a decision is now December 29

I need to rest. Have a nice evening.

[El duderino_]

https://i.imgflip.com/2j1zt1.jpg

I couldn't help but notice the distinct lack of a ring on a particular finger.

As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won't need much, just a tiny taste.

Then, put a ring on that finger.

Yeah come on mic, time to get down on one knee
Saying that, I’ve been with my girl 10 years now & she has no ring on her finger too

BOB my girl would consider you to be a good friend, but i never see the real meaning of getting married... to buy a nice ring wouldn't be a problem, but she's not a real jewelry carrier

and so first its LFC that has to drop the knee .... i'm only with my GF for 5,5 years  (livin together from day 1 also little unusual)

How did that happen man?

haha little like in movie's or something .... get the know each other a few weeks , went out few times and the night when i pulled the hamer (first kiss and the rest) she slept over and didn't left anymore .... i more and more asume that she had a vision or some that 1 day i would get involved with BTC or so...

#when BTC gets boring we turning ourselfs to relation things and shit  

give me a BOB

I’ve got a similar story, not 1 day but similar. I’ll tell you properly if we ever meet up.
But yeah, where’s a fucking pump man!

[serveria.com]

This week was hard and bad. Of the good events was only the purchase of a dog. And in the crypto nothing happened. SEC represented the second delay, the next deadline for a decision is now December 29

I need to rest. Have a nice evening.

OMG Bob and Mic are total non-drinkers compared to you!  You're probably completely wasted by now....

[Resumean]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.

Resolution of photo is pretty bad, there is also "Shake to buy" on the screen. Have no idea how it works, guess QR appears and after few confirmations it shows completed purchase and you can gave it staff to remove the tag.

[drays]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.

Note the actual BTC and USD prices on the tag . I don't know when the picture was taken, but if it was this year, then well... with this kind of conversion rate the seller has nothing to lose!

From another hand, lets put it this way - it is crazy to actually post prices in USD, with USD price changing a lot and likely to change a lot, relative to real value in BTC.

[serveria.com]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.

Note the actual BTC and USD prices on the tag . I don't know when the picture was taken, but if it was this year, then well... with this kind of conversion rate the seller has nothing to lose!

From another hand, lets put it this way - it is crazy to actually post prices in USD, with USD price changing a lot and likely to change a lot, relative to real value in BTC.

Possible solution is to use digital price tags updated in real time...

[Dunkelheit667]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.

Note the actual BTC and USD prices on the tag . I don't know when the picture was taken, but if it was this year, then well... with this kind of conversion rate the seller has nothing to lose!

From another hand, lets put it this way - it is crazy to actually post prices in USD, with USD price changing a lot and likely to change a lot, relative to real value in BTC.

Possible solution is to use digital price tags updated in real time...

It is updating (and an "older" product from 2014): https://www.coindesk.com/bittag-real-time-bitcoin-pricing-retail/

[jbreher]

Segwit and nonsegwit are all "on the blockchain."  I don't know how anyone who has been in bitcoin for a while would conclude that segwit is NOT on the blockchain?  I do believe that segwit has allowed the transactions per second to jump up dramatically and if you hit refresh on that page you will see the transactions per second jumping around between 10tsp and over 300tsp...   It seems that before segwit, there were proclamations that the bitcoin blockchain could only process a maximum of 7tps.

Yeah... about that....

Segwit or no segwit, BTC is utterly incapable of averaging 300 tps. By a couple orders of magnitude. Block weight will not allow it.

People testing the lightning network are seeing 400TPS easily between two nodes.  

Segwit let that happen.

Note the "on the blockchain" in the quote that advances the mistaken notion -- which I corrected -- that ...

Oh fuck it. If you're determined to be a loon, go ahead. Knock yourself out.

But what difference does it make, jbreher, if "on the blockchain" or not,

Because 'on the blockchain' means 'on the blockchain'.

Because words have meanings.

Because the total value accessible* on the pan-global lightning network won't even buy a single house in some markets.

*Because that total value really isn't 'accessible' anyhow.

[goldkingcoiner]

Low-key game changer. Price tag with actual BTC price.

That's crazy (maybe even batshit crazy?) to actually post prices in BTC - especially if BTC prices are changing a lot and likely to continue to change a lot, relative to fiat.

Note the actual BTC and USD prices on the tag . I don't know when the picture was taken, but if it was this year, then well... with this kind of conversion rate the seller has nothing to lose!

From another hand, lets put it this way - it is crazy to actually post prices in USD, with USD price changing a lot and likely to change a lot, relative to real value in BTC.

Possible solution is to use digital price tags updated in real time...

Or use a paper tag with : $60 - payable in Bitcoins.

This really reminds me of the mcdonalds in our town. They want to seem hip and new and modern so they got these screens where you pick your food. But problem is you don't pay there. It prints a piece of paper you take to the clerk and he puts in your order and you pay him. So totally redundant, yet flashy.