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Question: Will Bitcoin reach 20K by the end of this year? [Poll Chosen by angel55]
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21118500 times)
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JayJuanGee
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October 03, 2018, 11:53:07 PM

There is almost no scenario in which the price would go straight up, for example to a new ATH within a day or even within a week.  I'm not even sure whether an ETF approval would cause that, or some kind of news that some country has made bitcoin it's official currency.  Perhaps, but I have real doubts about such sudden exponential movement without any correction.

On the other hand, it is not likely, but we could get 100% or 200% within a week.. or we could get a kind of gradual UP and then, BAM, a sudden 100% to 200% UP within a week.  Is that what you mean by one of these days, moon?

Is moon past the previous ATH or is it some other number?

Where is "moon" exactly?


if ((amount of btc * btc price) > target net worth) then MOON

O.k.  Fair enough that moon is a number that would be somewhat individually tailored  - and sometimes, members might need to disclose where that point is for themselves, and sometimes just thinking about "where is moon" can be a psychological well-being point.

Part of the reason that I frequently express so much content, even though we are still bouncing around in a 66.6666% correction arena, is that I had considered $3k to $5k to have been the top of the 2017-2018-ish bubble - meaning the next bubble that was coming after the 2013 ATH of $1,163.  Accordingly, thereafter I had expected the top to have been in the $3-$5k range and then a correction into the $1k to $3k range.  Therefore, it seems to me that there is still a lot of icing on this particular cake, and it kind of already seems, to me, that a variation of moon has already arrived.

All of what I am saying does not mean that I am bearish or that there is froth  in this market, but a peak that goes to $19,666 remains in the approximately 5x area higher than expected and the correction back to $6k-ish remains in an area of about 5x higher than expected - and even with all of that 5x higher than expected, there seems to be plenty of upside potential, still.... because bitcoin continues to be in a very low adoption level - even with a lot of peeps coming into bitcoin, the numbers still remain trickles in comparison to the world population and in comparison to what is possible based on the ongoing good news in bitcoin, in terms of developments and the seeming solidity of the tech (and computing power for that matter - including bitcoin's continued winning of various infighting).

Sure there remains a question about whether alts are coming with on the next journey up, and so that could be the $1,000,000 question about how long any kind of continued correction goes on further or just drags out longer.... let's see, let's see... So even if we are at a kind of moon..., "When next moon?" might be more poignant of a question, perhaps?

As much as I want it to be different, a new moon will take a lot of time to materialise. The grind up to 20k will be long and hard, with tons of resistance levels established by previous run-up. Once we pass 20k, price discovery starts again and we are in uncharted waters.
Right JJG, I share your sentiment about btc adoption and also did not expect previous top to be this much of an overshoot. I'd caution everyone to be rather conservative in setting any sort of timeline for a next run, my experience has learned me this is always further away than one expects, especially after such a massive year for crypto that we had.
Still BTC and perhaps some other alts are terrific buys at this level from a long term perspective thats why I am hodling and accumulating, just as all you smart and fine gents in this thread  Smiley

Whoaza!!!!!  I consider myself to be fairly conservative in terms of both my BTC predictions and my expectations, but in some respects, your above post is coming off as a tad bit more bearish than me, at least in terms of BTC's shorter term dynamics, what is at play in the short term, and the timeline for any possible explosive UPWARDS movements.

Let me attempt to explain, and attempt to clarify which might seem to be internal contradictory comments from me.  I would also like to modify some of my retrospective views (somewhat based on hindsight is 20/20 rather than being caught within the moment in which thinking/vision is more muddied).  In other words, I am kind of modifying my statement of what my then (2017) expectations were to have likely been a bit more bullish than what I have subsequently characterized them to be.

First, certainly, I am asserting that BTC's about mid-November 2017 to mid-December 2017, BTC's price performance was much beyond the greatest of expectations that I had, and even though I had anticipated the most reasonable upside to be in the $3k to $5k price territory, I was willing to accept that prices could spike up to $8k or so.  Accordingly, in mid-November, when BTC prices went above and beyond $8k, we seemed to have gotten into a kind of "beyond the wildest dreams" price territory. 

So, yeah, you know (like man), we went about 2.5x beyond $8k, so that was a quite stupendous set of scenarios that seemed to have allowed for that to happen - maybe even an alignment of various happenings, market resolutions and momentum.    Even saying all of that, and based on both BTC fundamentals and the price foundation that allowed BTC to rise over more than 2 years in order to be ready for the exponential upwards price run, I am still of an ongoing tentative conclusion that $19,666 was not sufficient to constitute a blow off top.   Therefore, I remain tentatively unconvinced that this current price run up can be categorized as "over" or that the now more than 9 month price correction and even largely bouncing back and forth in the sub $10k price territory and even in the lower $6k arena, constitutes anything more than an extremely long and large BTC price correction in the midst of an upwards price run.

In other words, after having said all of that, I am not of the conclusion that we can have any kind of confidence that either BTC prices are going down from here or that the road past $20k is going to be a long and drawn out battle.  Sure it seems feasible to shake out a few more hands, if that is possible, and I have no doubt that BIG players will attempt to shake, if they can, and if that seems to be the path of least resistance. 

So, chartalists and fractalists and other folks attempting to overlay 2014/15 patterns over bitcoin or some other similarly bearish pattern in order to suggest that from our current position they can see either what has to happen or what is more probable to happen being either down or a drawn out flat BTC price period, are likely going down a road too far in their assertion of what has to happen or what they consider to be most likely, from my humble bumble perspective.
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October 04, 2018, 12:38:29 AM

Potential fractal


https://twitter.com/IamCryptoWolf/status/1047431277773819905
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October 04, 2018, 01:06:39 AM

I'm afraid once fiat conversion is unnecessary, they'll move the tracking to the actual goods, as they're already doing for assets with substantial value, e.g., cars, real estate etc - as pointed out several times in recent posts.

Exactly. And they'll even apply it retroactively:

http://www.cityam.com/264481/mystery-bankers-wife-losses-anti-corruption-order-appeal

Quote
The high-rolling wife of an anonymous banker has been defeated in her push to overturn efforts by the National Crime Agency (NCA) to make her reveal how she was able to afford properties in Britain worth £22m.

A High Court judge overturned an attempt by the woman, identified as Mrs A, to block the NCA’s use of one of its first-ever “unexplained wealth orders” (UWOs) – new powers to battle corruption which force owners of assets worth £50,000 or more to prove they acquired them legitimately.

The NCA’s order said that Mrs A – who is the wife of a banker from a non-EEA country – had to reveal the source of her income, or face having the properties taken away from her.

The new orders – which reverse the burden of proof, forcing those suspected of gaining assets through crime to prove they were legally obtained – came into effect in January.

The court was told Mrs A had made lavish purchases, including spending over £16.3m over a decade at luxury department store Harrods, and has access to fine wines, private jets and luxurious properties.

So conflicted on this. Smiley


Don’t touch the Petro unless you are willing to risk being accused of violating US sanctions

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/world/americas/trump-venezuela-sanctions-petro.html

Well that just means that Petro has some functionality.

What would happen if White House applied the same rules for Bticoin?

Revolution.


https://twitter.com/bitfinex/status/1047461223762153472
Bitfinex will be undergoing infrastructure maintenance tomorrow, October 4th, between 06.00 UTC and 18.00 UTC. The exact time will be disclosed 30 minutes prior to the start of the upgrade. Please keep this in mind for all open positions you may have.
mind the gap


Very cool, might be photoshopped.

we do like them just like bob's REKT updates , and where just waiting when fear turns into that green zone .... keep posting them from time to time  Wink
True that, Bobs been a little slacking in that department lately. Must be the booze. Cheesy

In my defense, it's hard to have wanton carnage and destruction of shorts in this muddling sideways action.

I'm keeping my eyeballs peeled tho !

Keeping fingers crossed Cheesy


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October 04, 2018, 01:07:34 AM

Nice pump! Finally, some action!
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October 04, 2018, 01:10:16 AM

A chance ?

https://twitter.com/BigRekts/status/1047654528965922816
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October 04, 2018, 01:12:12 AM


One of those "Ask and Ye Shall Recieve" deals I see. Cheesy
infofront
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October 04, 2018, 01:41:02 AM

JayJuanGee
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October 04, 2018, 01:49:30 AM

^
with jjg i try my best with english....  Roll Eyes
but learning and learning BETTER AND BETTER Grin

THATS what BTC is given me , a better currency, english lessons, computer skills, security skills etc.... haha

( sometimes when i'm @ a friends place and making a post he correct my writing.... ,getting lessons from everybody these days) micgooss is @ learning stages

my GF also always complaining with my english writing, so pffff gotta do my best and improve on that.


also you've acquired subtle pastiche skills of his waffly meaningless drivel

Speak 4 u r selfie, V8, u selectively judgemental fuck.

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October 04, 2018, 01:56:25 AM
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It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else
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October 04, 2018, 01:57:31 AM



Still, (I think) Bitcoin was not meant as a way to evade tax or capital controls but to be your own bank by having direct control of your money.


BTC might initially have had those former uses, but is steadily moving away from its experimental past, and that is a very big positive.

Regulations treating BTC as a mainstream asset, including AML and institutional KYC, are already essential at the fiat interface, but the treatment of transfers in crypto alone are a different question.

On one level, regulations about crypto transfers are defacto recognising it offically as money. That may not be a route that monetary authorities want to go down at present.

In most juristictions, all valuable assets are required to be registered in some way,and that usually is a positve in terms of ownership law and security. If BTC is outside that system it will always have a deficiency in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition.

I would envisage BTC and some other cryptos eventually coming within all of that, with most others remaining in the grey zone ,with the concomitant freedoms and also drawbacks of that status.




Surely the primary facet of cryptos (and the one for which BTC was born) is to provide a parallel monetary store and exchange system, as a refuge from the eventual insolvency of the current fiat regime ?


Over the long term, the free market should decide whether that is a worthy, recognised or necessary function.


You eloquently make a lot of great points here, and I would emphasize that bitcoin will likely continue to serve as a kind or free market experimental case in that due to its proclaimed (and seemingly practiced decentralization) it remains the most difficult to change, and therefore, peeps are gonna have to adjust to bitcoin, rather than the other way around, and therefore peeps gonna identify use cases and gravitate into various use cases that bitcoin provides (and will continue to provide and develop) and some of those use cases are foreseeable - and others may involve a few battles, and perhaps adjusting and yielding that comes from status quo institutions rather than from bitcoin, though some of the degree of adjusting is yet to be seen and might be subject to battles that are difficult to perceive, exactly, in this moment (as we type our anticipations and predictions).
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October 04, 2018, 01:58:13 AM

It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else

Working on it, you fuck!!!
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October 04, 2018, 02:02:27 AM
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It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else

Working on it, you fuck!!!

Fuck your mother if you want fuck
JayJuanGee
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October 04, 2018, 02:08:02 AM
Last edit: October 04, 2018, 02:25:23 AM by JayJuanGee

It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else

Working on it, you fuck!!!

Fuck your mother if you want fuck

Bringing it back to crypto... hahahahaha

(at least Bitmain, if that counts?)
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October 04, 2018, 02:08:54 AM
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It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else

can i just despise myself and call it even? been a long day
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October 04, 2018, 02:20:29 AM

For what it is worth, here is the current chart I use for trading.

Thanks.

IMHO the action becomes weaker and weaker, clearly visible on the 4hr chart, and with momentum to the downside increasing. Not necessarily a shit show yet but the bulls seem to momentarily loose the bigger momentum.

If the leg up from $6,424 does not surpass previous short term high (about $6,550), there is more pain to come.

Your conclusion:   Bulls are losing the BTC price battle because price has been failing to rise.   OMG.



Do you recall 2015?  Largely, BTC price failed to rise for more than 9 months, but that phenomenon did not mean that bulls were losing that BTC price battle, but instead that the bottom was in and bears could not push the price any lower, which ONLY left UPPITY as the direction of least resistance.  And we saw the evidence in retrospect, correct?  And we did not really realize that we were out of such situation until Mid-2016, and some folks were not really convinced until late 2016... sucks to have been those kinds of doubting thomases, just like it is going to suck to be waiting and waiting and waiting currently for a down that ends up not happening.   Tongue
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October 04, 2018, 02:34:39 AM

It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else

fuck you Hairy
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October 04, 2018, 02:36:40 AM

I'm afraid once fiat conversion is unnecessary, they'll move the tracking to the actual goods, as they're already doing for assets with substantial value, e.g., cars, real estate etc - as pointed out several times in recent posts.

Likely tracking varies from state to state, and willingness of parties to be private with their "important" aspects of their transactions.

Of course, licensed dealers and licensed estate agents are going to have less flexibilities than individuals engaging in private transactions and the extent to which individuals are ready, willing and able to take measures to keep "important" aspects of their transaction(s) private.
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October 04, 2018, 02:51:41 AM
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It’s not a capitulation until everyone despises everyone else
fuck you Hairy

Fuck you jojo.

And double-fuck that JJG guy. I hate him so much I blocked that fucker.

infofront, fuck you, for no reason in particular.
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October 04, 2018, 03:07:15 AM

Eat everybody!  Kiss
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October 04, 2018, 03:22:10 AM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 Grin LOL ,BCH what a Joke......

Largely, I think that the described terms of the proposed Song/Ver bet (from earlier today) are fair, yet I believe that the bet would be more fair and unambiguous if the median average period for either BCH or BTC to be lower than 200 to 1 should be for a period of 90 days rather than 30 days.
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