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JJG, I am obviously hoping for a scenario a bit more like 2013, with an april top followed by new ath later in the year. I doubt this will happen in the short term, invalidating that pattern.
There can be all kinds of variations of patters, and sure we can use those patterns as models, but it if one pattern is not playing out exactly as it had previously, does not necessarily mean that we would be in an alternative suggestion, because the pattern that ends up taking place could end up being some variation of the two or something completely different than either one, even if it may have started out similar to both.
In any case, dont think looking at the past is too relevant here.
I have no problem looking at the past, and it seems to me that the past can be very relevant for considering what is possible. I just have issues with attempting to lock into thinking about what is going to happen next and assigning a high probability to that prediction based on a previous pattern.
I dont really agree with your wording of ‘correction’, its ok to say btc has crashed since ath, a 70% drop is just that, a crash.
We can agree to disagree, and perhaps it does not matter what we call it exactly.
If you want to start BTC history from December 2017, then perhaps your framing our current situation as a crash is more meaningful.
I, I personally, believe that starting from mid to late 2015 is a much better reference point in order to attempt to get a better and broader understanding, yet I understand that depending upon what point(s) you are attempting to make, you might zoom in or out in order to make your proclamations about where we are or where we might be going... .and sometimes, the framework of what happened between December 2017 and now is going to be relevant for making various points, but from my perspective, it still does not seem to be a good framework for concluding what we are "in" at the moment - in part because we are still "in" it...... so even if we can make tentative conclusions, it seems problematic to overdescribe what we are "in" in such a way that seems to presume where we are going.
In another framework, we could describe what BTC prices did from August 2017 to present, and in that regard, we are still going to find that we had both UP and DOWN..... that is still largely UP (something approaching 3x), and to have 3x price appreciation in a bit over a year remains quite a phenomenon and hardly a crash.. even if there happened to have been a fairly stupendous and prolonged peak of prices (extensive volatility) in the middle of that over a year period.
So, for me, it remains quite problematic (even for bullish folks) to be accepting seemingly noncontextuallized and overly bearish frameworks that seem to make too many presumptions about both current status and where the price is going from here.
Regarding your wish about the direction of the price, that should not have too many bearings upon thoughts about BTC framework (even though I understand that someone might make bearish proclamations while saying that they are bullish in order to counter-balance their bearish proclamations in terms of their supposed "wishes." not saying that you, specifically, are doing this.. at least, not yet...
)
Especially since it is accompanied by the complete bloodbath that is the alt-markets.
Well, yes. Any of us following BTC and attempting to make comparisons towards previous crypto-times, are going to recognize that shit coins bring a complexifying dynamic to the whole space, including bitcoin. Alt coins are not merely a negative phenomenon that is currently dragging bitcoin down, but they are also a phenomenon that facilitated the influx of a bast amount of money into both bitcoin and into the crypto space that might not have otherwise been mobilized in the crypto direction.
So, yeah, not only dealing with actual dynamics, but also dealing with the way the space is conceptually framed - and even some folks attempting to describe the whole market as Crypto and to see the up and down performance in that kind of macro level which can be misleading, but it can also provide price pressures that go in both directions.
Of course, many of the active participants in this thread consider bitcoin as the dominant player, yet there are not too many hardcore bitcoin maximalists who attempt to totally ignore the shitcoin influences on bitcoin (the good, the bad and the ugly influences).
One scenario where bitcoin could go lower (and take alts with them) is if miners make a play to push price down to bankrupt less efficient miners, allowing them higher market share in the future as inefficient mining ventures go broke.
I doubt that we just frame one set of players and suggest that they are incentivized (and perhaps able to accomplish a momentum push), and I thought that a lot of us have come to realize that the miners are a lot less powerful than a variety of previous conspiracy theories made them out to be. Of course, they are likely decent sized holders of coins, but I doubt that they are centralized enough to really make such a price driving down attempt (whether they were to make such attempt overtly or covertly).
By the way, even though frequently there are proclamations of mining centralization, I think that there is a decent amount of evidence that mining is becoming more and more decentralized with the passage of time, rather than more centralized - even if we have a few BIGGER (miner) players, here and there.
Still, I hope 6k is the bottom (but then we saw the bottom 6 months ago, only 3 months after ath! 🤔 )
You are coming off as quite the pessimist in this particular more fleshed out post.
As I already mentioned, it does not really matter too much about what you hope, and it also does not seem to matter too much that the BTC price went "crashing down" (your words, more or less
) from $20k to $6k and then got stuck in the $6k territory for an extended period of time... Those dynamics are largely within the normal expectations of a market like this one. In other words, does not seem abnormal when looking at it in retrospect, and does not suggest that there is any greater likelihood for DOWN than there is for UP or that there is for FLAT...
So, in essence, if you are not serving as some kind of foil or Rosewater sock, seems that you have been reading (and believing) too many bear proclamations about the dire position of bitcoin. Again, who gives a ratt's ass if the price goes up or down, and just prepare for either scenario.. because both we cannot really know with any kind of certainty about short term moves, and in the long term we already know that there are ongoing great BTC fundamentals that remain quite likely to continue to put upwards price pressures upon bitcoin (and we should realize what that causes, in the longer time frames, no?).
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Who are you and what have you done to our friend??
Actually, you are correct bitserve, the style, the bearish perspective and the seemingly better English typing skills does not come across as the same micpeep.
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Your english is clearly improving every day, you could just check your first few posts on this forum and it is evident. By the time we reach $100K you would have probably mastered it.
Personally, I hope that micpeep's english still sucks a BIG bag of dicks by the time that we reach $100k, that would signify a fairly expedited rise to $100k rather than a 10 year process.
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