Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Here comes the pump
here comes the pump
it's allright

Little darling, it's been a long cold crypto winter
Little darling, it's been like years since 20k

Here comes the pump
here comes the pump
it's allright

[podyx]

[crypmike]

Keep going!  




Wow ETH nice candle

[jojo69]

BOOYAH!!!

[JayJuanGee]

"This time its different"

2014


2018


https://twitter.com/xcbitcoin/status/1047721262196375553?s=21

Of course this time is different.  Bitcoin is almost double it's earlier age, and other "reasons."

[kurious]

Seems awful quiet 'round here. 

Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..?  We should have frisked him on the way out.

Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase.

It might go on for a while, but don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

There are only 21 million bitcoins and most have already been mined which is not enough for every entity that wants one.  If you see how many exchanges, institutions and governments are now forced to take notice, it can't be stopped or ignored.

Yes, it looks flat just now - but don't think the fireworks are over.  They aren't yet... Not by a long chalk.

We have some pain still to go through, but there will be prices in future that will dwarf the last ATH. This has always have been so, and I can only see many thousands of reasons why this process shall be seen again.

What are you talking about? Everybody knows Bitcoin is dead now. There is no hope.

Damn - I forgot to be pessimistic to bring on the capitulation, sorry!

But you know what? I think history is not simply a fractal pattern every time.  I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not.  And those, new to crypto who are unsure - are just waiting to see what happens.

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal. 

Hairy (and others) who I have tended to agree with, look correct - that is; that we need a crypto capitulation, a 'crypto winter'.  So, we have to see what happens in January to confirm the pattern of 2014 / 2015.  And this may come to pass, yes.

But think:  if people assume this, but if after January, things are NOT the same - then they will get nervous about missing the chance to accumulate.   The LAST chance to accumulate?  Then it's a game of chicken.  No one can drive Bitcoin to zero, there is a base level with too many buyers to get even close.  But it will only take a few funds, or one country to see BTC as 'too good to miss' for the shit to get real.

FOMO, when there are only a few coins left?  It will come, of course it will.  When?  Either after the fractal of a January dip ends the bear market, or (perhaps) the absence of the January dip. Either way, it seems we might not have not got that long to go.  Any recession in the fiat economy is another factor that will move people away from trust in the legacy system and towards real, hard money: Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin dead?  No, of course not.  And if everyone knows that, then of course, ultimately its value can only increase.  Such is the genius of its design. 

Do what the fuck you want with your life and your resources, but one thing that makes ultimate sense is to make sure you keep hold of a little Bitcoin. No matter what.

/end of sermon

[El duderino_]

WEEKEND PUMP incoming!!!

coming with early sleep time .... good GOOD , curious for the morning , pump this shit all night long THX

[jojo69]

I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not...

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal. 

warrants some emphasis

[El duderino_]

[JayJuanGee]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

#bitcoin halving: only 19 months to go ... we are in the green zone!!

By that chart, we get a  largely sad pattern (to the extent that we can count on a pattern of two), because the "real up" does not seem to come until the halvening has already taken place.

It's more like... We were in uptrends one year before and after a halving.

One year before and after the 1st halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2011-11-28zeg2013-11-28ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
One year before and after the 2nd halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/krakenUSD#czsg2015-07-09zeg2017-07-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

And in a downtrend during years two and three after the 1st halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2013-11-28zeg2015-11-28ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

That's how it looks until now starting with year two after the 2nd halving:
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#czsg2017-07-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

After an extended uptrend, we're going sideways until now. Boring, I know.

But what does it all mean?   

A pattern of two constitutes some kind of a significant pattern these days?  A kind of binding (or compelling) authority? 

(oh we are going onto a 3rd similar pattern, which is showing similarities to the first two, I forgot, but we still are not through the third pattern yet, right?)

[crypmike]

WEEKEND PUMP incoming!!!

It's not officially a pump until @bigrekts sees some blood.

Hoping for a Tweet any time now...

Let's see how the day closes

[El duderino_]

^

[BotanicKilt]

These prints goes viral in UK, nice

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

This is confirmed for a long time that history keeps repeating itself. All Bitcoin price spikes during all these years looking this same and keep repeating this same pattern. I hope this time we will not see an exception to this rule.

Isn't the more accurate assertion that it rhymes rather than repeats?

[d_eddie]

BitMex right now...

Don't know why, this reminds me of the Mayor.

[kurious]

BitMex right now...

Don't know why, this reminds me of the Mayor.

Yep, that evil genius got mine too.  Bless him!

[bitserve]

Seems awful quiet 'round here. 

Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..?  We should have frisked him on the way out.

Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase.

It might go on for a while, but don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

There are only 21 million bitcoins and most have already been mined which is not enough for every entity that wants one.  If you see how many exchanges, institutions and governments are now forced to take notice, it can't be stopped or ignored.

Yes, it looks flat just now - but don't think the fireworks are over.  They aren't yet... Not by a long chalk.

We have some pain still to go through, but there will be prices in future that will dwarf the last ATH. This has always have been so, and I can only see many thousands of reasons why this process shall be seen again.

What are you talking about? Everybody knows Bitcoin is dead now. There is no hope.

Damn - I forgot to be pessimistic to bring on the capitulation, sorry!

But you know what? I think history is not simply a fractal pattern every time.  I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not.  And those, new to crypto who are unsure - are just waiting to see what happens.

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal. 

Hairy (and others) who I have tended to agree with, look correct - that is; that we need a crypto capitulation, a 'crypto winter'.  So, we have to see what happens in January to confirm the pattern of 2014 / 2015.  And this may come to pass, yes.

But think:  if people assume this, but if after January, things are NOT the same - then they will get nervous about missing the chance to accumulate.   The LAST chance to accumulate?  Then it's a game of chicken.  No one can drive Bitcoin to zero, there is a base level with too many buyers to get even close.  But it will only take a few funds, or one country to see BTC as 'too good to miss' for the shit to get real.

FOMO, when there are only a few coins left?  It will come, of course it will.  When?  Either after the fractal of a January dip ends the bear market, or (perhaps) the absence of the January dip. Either way, it seems we might not have not got that long to go.  Any recession in the fiat economy is another factor that will move people away from trust in the legacy system and towards real, hard money: Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin dead?  No, of course not.  And if everyone knows that, then of course, ultimately its value can only increase.  Such is the genius of its design. 

Do what the fuck you want with your life and your resources, but one thing that makes ultimate sense is to make sure you keep hold of a little Bitcoin. No matter what.

/end of sermon

That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction. The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.

[kurious]

Seems awful quiet 'round here. 

Who cancelled the weekend pumps, did Rosewater take them with him..?  We should have frisked him on the way out.

Probably. I guess right now is where people gave up and nobody wants to buy in. This might go on for a while. I wonder if bitcoin will ever experience huge pumps like in the past? Those were the days.... At best now we will only have a linear increase.

It might go on for a while, but don't write Bitcoin off just yet! 

There are only 21 million bitcoins and most have already been mined which is not enough for every entity that wants one.  If you see how many exchanges, institutions and governments are now forced to take notice, it can't be stopped or ignored.

Yes, it looks flat just now - but don't think the fireworks are over.  They aren't yet... Not by a long chalk.

We have some pain still to go through, but there will be prices in future that will dwarf the last ATH. This has always have been so, and I can only see many thousands of reasons why this process shall be seen again.

What are you talking about? Everybody knows Bitcoin is dead now. There is no hope.

Damn - I forgot to be pessimistic to bring on the capitulation, sorry!

But you know what? I think history is not simply a fractal pattern every time.  I think a lot of people REALLY DID think it was 'all over' last time - but 'this time' they patently do not.  And those, new to crypto who are unsure - are just waiting to see what happens.

So this time, as soon as it looks like the bear market is over and it's going back up, the scramble to grab the last coins available could be brutal. 

Hairy (and others) who I have tended to agree with, look correct - that is; that we need a crypto capitulation, a 'crypto winter'.  So, we have to see what happens in January to confirm the pattern of 2014 / 2015.  And this may come to pass, yes.

But think:  if people assume this, but if after January, things are NOT the same - then they will get nervous about missing the chance to accumulate.   The LAST chance to accumulate?  Then it's a game of chicken.  No one can drive Bitcoin to zero, there is a base level with too many buyers to get even close.  But it will only take a few funds, or one country to see BTC as 'too good to miss' for the shit to get real.

FOMO, when there are only a few coins left?  It will come, of course it will.  When?  Either after the fractal of a January dip ends the bear market, or (perhaps) the absence of the January dip. Either way, it seems we might not have not got that long to go.  Any recession in the fiat economy is another factor that will move people away from trust in the legacy system and towards real, hard money: Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin dead?  No, of course not.  And if everyone knows that, then of course, ultimately its value can only increase.  Such is the genius of its design. 

Do what the fuck you want with your life and your resources, but one thing that makes ultimate sense is to make sure you keep hold of a little Bitcoin. No matter what.

/end of sermon

That's exactly what worries me. This time no one really think Bitcoin could simply vanish. Everybody is expecting a surge any moment in time or, at least, is sure that Bitcoin will hit new ATHs in the next few years. In 2014 most people just didn't know if it was all over. That maybe Bitcoin was really dying for good. Huge uncertainty to say the least.

This time there is so much confidence.... it's not a matter of IF anymore, just WHEN.... and that difference is somewhat scary.

How are the "weak hands" going to capitulate with all this optimism? Can the price keep rising without a real capitulation? Well, maybe, but again that would be a new scenario unlike past Bitcoin history.

Anyway, even if the price just stagnates around this level for a few more months could probably grind the nerves of many of those weak hands in a sort of slow-mo capitulation.

The only thing I am sure is that we needed this correction. The thing I am not so sure is if we need a deeper (or longer in time) one. Still too much hope... me included.

Sure, it's a valid and fairly widely held view.  I guess I am saying, there might be more people wanting 'in' than can be accommodated and that the capitulation we all assume is 'necessary' in actually why it will not happen.   Maybe, so many expect it that it will happen (so they know it's time to get in) that others will front-run it and mean it won't happen at all.

January is an obvious point if we are following past years - most of them have been at least an annual low.  But if it isn't....?  We are also overdue for a recession.  If the world financial system wobbles again, and the world is hardly looking stable, well...

I am being contrarian, but I see 230 exchanges and think - 'jeez, there just arn't enough coins for this much interest'.  Just a point of view, yes - but maybe we're wrong and that capitulation has already happened....

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

If you follow the collectibles market here some collectors are starting to sell off expensive collections of Casascius, Kialaras, etc. I consider this bullish because they are indicating they would rather hold bitcoin at this time than the collectible coins, and expect bitcoin to appreciate more than their collection over the next year or so. Call it a possible leading indicator.

[Dunkelheit667]

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

But what does it all mean?  

A pattern of two constitutes some kind of a significant pattern these days?  A kind of binding (or compelling) authority?  

(oh we are going onto a 3rd similar pattern, which is showing similarities to the first two, I forgot, but we still are not through the third pattern yet, right?)

42? It's just an observation, nothing more or less. The observer decides if the observed brought any meaningfull information to his eyes and may use them to make decisions.

What I see is the following pattern: uptrend1 - halfing1 - uptrend1 - downtrend1 - downtrend1 - uptrend2 - halfing2 - uptrend2 - downtrend2/sidewayish

My conclusion is (more or less), uptrends around a halfing make sense (supply and demand). As long as the 'fundamentals' don't change, there should be a new uptrend, no later then the next halfing.

Can we go lower until then? Sure. Can we go just sideways? Yes (IMHO this would simply indicate a 'stronger' sentiment then we have had after the first halfing).

What does all this mean to me just right now? I will continue hodling and try to accumulate more with pocket fiat money in case we change into a clear(er) downtrend. If the next uptrend starts sooner, I'm fine.

I know, this sentiment is nothing new in here.