You are up tight sometimes JJ
I'm merely responding.
Well, I understand the question making people feel uncomfortable, but I never said it was realistic , I have stated quite clearly how I see things most likely playing out..
Doesn't opinion change based on what happens, and even if you have a prediction, that is merely what you consider to be probable based on certain facts that are known at the time of the prediction, and those facts could change and then change the probabilities assigned, at least changing facts should change perceived probabilities.
The question in short form would perhaps be more palatable i.e “BTC capitulates more than you think possible- what do you do?” Which I think is an entirely reasonable and realistic question to ask.. more so one I expect everyone that participates in this thread would have thought of.
Probably, you are correct that most people who are active in bitcoin for long enough, more than a year, would already realize that sometimes bitcoin price movements out perform expectations in one direction or another, and so it usually is good to have a plan, but I doubt that everyone has a plan, because sometimes people merely hope that the outperformance does not happen in a way that is counter to their position.
Then that way people could have filled in their own price levels , but I was just adding colour to the scene because amusing
Fair enough..
Likely you already asserted that I am too boring because frequently it becomes more and more difficult to speculate beyond one, two or three legs of what will happen.. even though I am definitely not opposed to anyone who prepares for many legs even though not knowing the order in which they will occur, the intensity or even if they will occur.
Also I picked the price levels purposely for shock factor for sure ... that was part of the question , capitulation that you are alright with is not capitulation, and is not what I was asking about ?
Some people do plan to hold to zero, but actually going to zero or to some extreme could cause them to change their plan.... You are quite correct about that, even though some people might not even know until they are at that point or might not admit it until after they did such capitulation. Also, there can be plans that are not quite all or nothing, too, that might not be capitulation but some kind of incrementalism that just takes some value off of the table or perhaps puts more value on the table.
I was specifically asking about what if it does the unexpected... surely that’s not taboo?
No it is not, but there can also be a lot of individual variation that is not just dependent upon facts that you outlined, but could be what is going on in other markets, too and also whether the person is hedged sufficiently.
We are all old enough in this game for sure! Also I did clearly label as ay thought experiment , in my defence.
Fair enough.
Tbh this thread is a perfect place to ask the question
Maybe not perfect, but close enough... you are right that active WO members here are generally pretty open to a variety of BTC price speculations and even other related hypothetical topics that might kind of relate to bitcoin.
Personally I am bullish long term, but bearish on shorter time frame - I see potential for a rally and then a rout as explained in earlier serious posts, if I am honest I have spent a little time since wondering about the scenario myself...
Actually, sometimes, if someone asks me a question, I will ask them to answer first, but I understand that if you are trying to get folks to provide their answers first, then you might not want to suggest answers, but even having had said all of that, the scenario remains quite out there and involves too many other possible facts to answer properly.. and in that regard, likely causes way more work on possible respondents than seems necessary.. but whatever, peeps can still choose to respond.. I have no issue with others choosing to respond.
From a risk reward point of view in all honesty there is only 100% to the downside and there is in my view a easily achievable 1000% to the upside long term.
If you leverage or use margin, those percentages might be thrown off considerably, meaning that you could lose more than the price movement (but of course not more than you bet, though it could be money that you don't have and have NOT prepared adequately to lose).
No brainier.
I think that the some variation of the scenario that you are describing is referred to as pascal's wager.
Coincidentally, it is partly because people are so certain it can’t do the unexpected, and seem to think they have a handle on the bottom that I asked the question , like I said if everyone is happy then it’s hardly capitulation, and besides I just wanted to see what my OG WO buddies would say in response to the horror scenario.
Seems like there could be better ways to get responses, but of course, you have artistic freedom to make whatever solicitation that you deem warranted.
You guys musta figured I am a pretty dark humoured individual by now 😀
I thought that you took a long break from WO? But you return for this correction? and excitement?
Didn’t mean to ruffle any feathers thou’
Like hairy mentioned in a subsequent post, nothing wrong with ruffling or attempting to ruffle a few feathers here and there.
Poll
