Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

I actually researched this.

Difficulty declined (on a sustained basis) only during 2011 bear market: from 7/31/2011 to 12/10/2011 or about 4 mo (plus 10 days).
The decline was about 42% and btc bottomed Nov 19 2011 at $2, which is 20 days before difficulty bottoming, so price was leading, as expected.
Difficulty did not decline (on a sustained basis) during 2014-2015 bear market.
Right now difficulty is flat or declining since 10/6 or about two months.
Does this predict that we might be 30-40 days from price bottom?
Maybe, but i wouldn't put my money on this.
BTW, we lost about 21% so far and next drop looks like 6-7%.

Sources:
https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/difficulty?scale=1&timespan=all
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[d_eddie]

I have returned from dinner and the party starts again.
I lack time to follow the pages of WO, very, very, fast

My wife is worried, she says I've been very strange for four days.

(4 / december first time in WO, lol)

Why not open an account for her and talk to each other on here? We can give you marital guidance plus it's a fun memorial for your kids.

It's mo' better than mic's TV anyway. No match.

[Hueristic]

 I asked two of my colleagues at work (on separate occasions) if they would refrain from wearing the cologne they were using - I even offered to purchase it from them so they weren't out any money.  One of them stopped wearing it (and didn't want my money) and the other one said "Would you rather I came to work smelling like BO?!"  Yes... yes I would.
 

Tell him to fucking take a shower, smelling like a french whore with cologne poured ontop is even worse than just the BO. He apparently thinks the two are diametrically opposed, what kind of morons do you work with? I made a senior engineer stand on the other side of the room because he refused breath mints before I had even gone through a 6 month probation period and the rest of the company loved me for it.

[jojo69]

i am reading this a few days per week, lately every 1 or 2 days if i have time

and, i cant stand it anymore, so i am gonna pop the question



whats up with the hats?

circle jerk.

sour grapes

[rolling]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxbCHlXZ-0U
We are closing. The hard truth behind crypto.
(re mining)

waaaanh

[jojo69]

I have returned from dinner and the party starts again.
I lack time to follow the pages of WO, very, very, fast

My wife is worried, she says I've been very strange for four days.

(4 / december first time in WO, lol)

nobody fucking cares , did we ask for your life story

who's "we" asshole

[jojo69]

for taxes or extortions?

Entrance to the $100k party.

You ain't getting in.

just have to keep posting enough shit here. you'll beg me to come, eventually. :>

I rather think not

welcome to my ignore list

[d_eddie]

trichotomous

Is that a three headed hippo?

Where's your stop profit?

Stopped using them because I always got it wrong.  Instead I chase the price downwards with a scale out of stop losses.  So let the market make the decision.  Its the JJG School of Shorting^TM, gradually sell on the way down and then gradually buy on the way back up.

I call it a "negative ladder" made of shorts rather than longs or physical.

[gwaur]

for taxes or extortions?

Entrance to the $100k party.

You ain't getting in.

just have to keep posting enough shit here. you'll beg me to come, eventually. :>

I rather think not

welcome to my ignore list

likewise.

[xhomerx10]

That stuff is just awful. It reminds me preppie boys in the Eighties, and awful pastel colors. And come on; tell me that you couldn't tell me George Michaels was totally flaming back when he was still in WHAM! - while we're talking about awful colors and the Eighties...

 George Michael and Boy George.  There was a lot of weird stuff in the 80's... sweater-over-shoulders, mullets (men and women), perms, big gold chains and jazzercise!




edit: I totally forgot about 80's hair bands!



 Oh wait... huh!

[Dogboy714]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

This guy has a nice color visual of it. He also makes a strong case that nothing matters but the halven'ing!
Buy aqua - sell orange!

https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD

[S_Therapist]

MN- Manipulation
AC- Accumulating
That's what is happening, IMO. This thrend will be continued for a couple of months.

[d_eddie]

My Christmas wishes re bitcoin in 2019:

1. No ETF. Why? Because institutions are losers who don't give a s-t about bitcoin as an idea. Same for retirees. Watch them scramble to alternative assets once their asses would be on the line due to the downturn.

2. No bakkt. Why? Because bakkt will manifest custodial holding, hopothecation, rehypothetication, same as gold. Garbage! We don't need it. We do not need custodial solution when blockchain is the most secure custodian EVER.

3. No bitmain. I hope that they piss off and/or go bankrupt.

4. Yes 10X, maybe even 100X growth of Lightning.

5. Yes to more people participating in bitcoin.

6. Yes to more self-organization of the bitcoin crowd. We need it to survive potential fiat calamities. Do I want gold? Nope.

I agree with everything but LN. Sorry, but keeping my funds in a hot wallet is not the best security.

You can lock sums as small as you please. Your reward: the coins locked in that hot wallet gain relatively anonymous near-instant mobility.

The issue with LN is making mainchain on and offramps seamlessly cheap and anonymous by clever batching/mixing, which is the easiest (only?) way to quick channel rebalancing. The natural places to do the batching/mixing would be exchanges, but can I trust them? I think third-party sites will take on that job. Sites that could be run by pools of users - a bit like mining pools, but with much lower profit if any.

[Icygreen]

After all, I fight TPTB with BTC because I don't see any other way currently.

You know why silver doesn't work?  You need 195 kilos of it just to transfer one-hundred-thousand-dollars. It's heavy AF!  You also won't be getting through any borders with any decent size stash if you could somehow carry it.  Even if it goes to astronomical valuations, you still can't carry a big stash. But bitcoin,  
Don't know why I bothered to reply, your trolling is really weak and transparent.  Time to step it up or STFU
 

[gwaur]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/

[criptix]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/

Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

[xhomerx10]

Just today, my great-aunt asked me how to short Bitcoin!

[rolling]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/

Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

You know what do do when everybody and their dog is doing something? Do the opposite. I think we are very close to the next bull run. If granny is shorting bitcoin, it's time to buy.

[criptix]

Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

Not even halfway, way too early. One shoulder does not make a neckline.

Thus i said might and crossing fingers.  

Really hope for a bounce else it just looks like we are totaly rekt.


@rolling

Or you just go with the trend