Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxbCHlXZ-0U
We are closing. The hard truth behind crypto.
(re mining)

waaaanh

[1713581520]

1713581520

[1713581520]

1713581520

[jojo69]

I have returned from dinner and the party starts again.
I lack time to follow the pages of WO, very, very, fast

My wife is worried, she says I've been very strange for four days.

(4 / december first time in WO, lol)

nobody fucking cares , did we ask for your life story

who's "we" asshole

[jojo69]

for taxes or extortions?

Entrance to the $100k party.

You ain't getting in.

just have to keep posting enough shit here. you'll beg me to come, eventually. :>

I rather think not

welcome to my ignore list

[d_eddie]

trichotomous

Is that a three headed hippo?

Where's your stop profit?

Stopped using them because I always got it wrong.  Instead I chase the price downwards with a scale out of stop losses.  So let the market make the decision.  Its the JJG School of Shorting^TM, gradually sell on the way down and then gradually buy on the way back up.

I call it a "negative ladder" made of shorts rather than longs or physical.

[gwaur]

for taxes or extortions?

Entrance to the $100k party.

You ain't getting in.

just have to keep posting enough shit here. you'll beg me to come, eventually. :>

I rather think not

welcome to my ignore list

likewise.

[xhomerx10]

That stuff is just awful. It reminds me preppie boys in the Eighties, and awful pastel colors. And come on; tell me that you couldn't tell me George Michaels was totally flaming back when he was still in WHAM! - while we're talking about awful colors and the Eighties...

 George Michael and Boy George.  There was a lot of weird stuff in the 80's... sweater-over-shoulders, mullets (men and women), perms, big gold chains and jazzercise!




edit: I totally forgot about 80's hair bands!



 Oh wait... huh!

[Dogboy714]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

This guy has a nice color visual of it. He also makes a strong case that nothing matters but the halven'ing!
Buy aqua - sell orange!

https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD

[S_Therapist]

MN- Manipulation
AC- Accumulating
That's what is happening, IMO. This thrend will be continued for a couple of months.

[d_eddie]

My Christmas wishes re bitcoin in 2019:

1. No ETF. Why? Because institutions are losers who don't give a s-t about bitcoin as an idea. Same for retirees. Watch them scramble to alternative assets once their asses would be on the line due to the downturn.

2. No bakkt. Why? Because bakkt will manifest custodial holding, hopothecation, rehypothetication, same as gold. Garbage! We don't need it. We do not need custodial solution when blockchain is the most secure custodian EVER.

3. No bitmain. I hope that they piss off and/or go bankrupt.

4. Yes 10X, maybe even 100X growth of Lightning.

5. Yes to more people participating in bitcoin.

6. Yes to more self-organization of the bitcoin crowd. We need it to survive potential fiat calamities. Do I want gold? Nope.

I agree with everything but LN. Sorry, but keeping my funds in a hot wallet is not the best security.

You can lock sums as small as you please. Your reward: the coins locked in that hot wallet gain relatively anonymous near-instant mobility.

The issue with LN is making mainchain on and offramps seamlessly cheap and anonymous by clever batching/mixing, which is the easiest (only?) way to quick channel rebalancing. The natural places to do the batching/mixing would be exchanges, but can I trust them? I think third-party sites will take on that job. Sites that could be run by pools of users - a bit like mining pools, but with much lower profit if any.

[Icygreen]

After all, I fight TPTB with BTC because I don't see any other way currently.

You know why silver doesn't work?  You need 195 kilos of it just to transfer one-hundred-thousand-dollars. It's heavy AF!  You also won't be getting through any borders with any decent size stash if you could somehow carry it.  Even if it goes to astronomical valuations, you still can't carry a big stash. But bitcoin,  
Don't know why I bothered to reply, your trolling is really weak and transparent.  Time to step it up or STFU
 

[gwaur]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/

[criptix]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/

Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

[xhomerx10]

Just today, my great-aunt asked me how to short Bitcoin!

[rolling]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

That's a hard chart to make meaningful. Different hardware availability, different hardware profitability, and different scales of mining companies. Too many variables really.

Anecdotally though, as a former miner from back then, I think this crash is a little bit deeper for miners (evidenced by the decreasing hash rate). I was mining back then and I was profitable until the second half of 2015 at which point I was mining at about break even for "electricity only" with $250 BTC. I was losing money on the facility costs and made no money for my time invested.

The operations now days are much larger with much larger fixed costs for facilities, loans and employees. $6000 was probably break even for them with the difficulty of a month ago. Now, difficulty is down ~20% and prices are down ~40%.

Every miner in the world is likely losing money now if they sell mining proceeds daily. Very few miners do that though. As a miner, you are a trader by default. Just like a farmer, you store your crops if you can and wait for the best time to sell. The longer these prices remain, the more miners will file for bankruptcy or sell their stash to cover basic necessities such as electricity and payroll.

With enough bankrupt miners, the difficulty should theoretically drop another 20% while prices stay ~$3500 to balance things out.


EDIT: The point though is that we are in the second half of 2015 if you are using mining difficulty/profitability as an indicator and comparing the last bear market to this one.

now the miners are shorting too.
https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-short-btc-markets-to-hedge-against-falling-prices/

Last time i checked even my parents were shorting BTC...  

Shorts are big since the drop from 6k.


Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

You know what do do when everybody and their dog is doing something? Do the opposite. I think we are very close to the next bull run. If granny is shorting bitcoin, it's time to buy.

[criptix]

Edit.

There might be an inverted H&S forming on 1D.

Crossing fingers.

Not even halfway, way too early. One shoulder does not make a neckline.

Thus i said might and crossing fingers.  

Really hope for a bounce else it just looks like we are totaly rekt.


@rolling

Or you just go with the trend

[marcus_of_augustus]

Anyone have a chart comparing 2014 bear market difficulty to present day?

This guy has a nice color visual of it. He also makes a strong case that nothing matters but the halven'ing!
Buy aqua - sell orange!

https://mobile.twitter.com/100trillionUSD

this market right now feels a lot more like the the 2011/12 bear than the 2014/15 bear, more vicious, organic, dog-eat-dog and less managed/contrived/orchestrated/manipulated.

In 2011/12 Bitcoinica and the shorting mania that unravelled spectacularly there might have something to do with it ... the news of miners shorting (hedging production forward) makes me think we are very near the final capitulation. This often happens in commodities markets at the bottom, the producers sell forward production even though they are going broke and it is killing their future market, it's an act of total desperation, that's what this feels like.

Probably central banks (likely through their proxies like JPM and UBS) are starting to buy up some cheap coins, to hedge for future possibilities ya know too ... that gives it that extra vicious edge when nation state dogs fight over the same piece of kill meat too.

[HairyMaclairy]

I wasn't around in 2011.  Can you tell us more about what it was like?

[Paashaas]

[Lambie Slayer]

I used to think bitcoin go big moon but now think it go down to hell.

Zoom out, dip twat.. and don't get caught up into whatever seems to be the current momentum.

jjg having a fever?

short explanation?  

Just capitulation getting much much closer is all. You still have your part to play Goose in this cosmic dance. A pic of you eating some Ramen noodles or a cold can of beans would do the trick. If you wanna end this bear market quickly then sacrifices must be made to the Gods of Capitulation. Jimbo earnestly and sincerely telling us all to go fuck ourselves would also really help. Our families are waiting in desperate need so please do the right thing sirs. JJG, thank you for setting a good example and making a sacrifice. Im sure it wasnt easy writing such a short and concise piece of life advice to Pirate Dip Twat, we all know he could have benefited from some instructions on incremental selling and buying strategies.

[JayJuanGee]

trichotomous

Is that a three headed hippo?

Where's your stop profit?

Stopped using them because I always got it wrong.  Instead I chase the price downwards with a scale out of stop losses.  So let the market make the decision.  Its the JJG School of Shorting^TM, gradually sell on the way down and then gradually buy on the way back up.

It seems to me that you need your own Hairy Bearie trademark for that variation of incrementalism because it significantly differs from my approach and my thinking (even though practically your approach seems to have decent practicalities)... Anyhow, my incrementalism approach is largely chicken shit about shorting (or using margin).